Ok the 6J is back to my Buy Level now I will be monitoring it for a trade and will post the trade in real time if I take it.

http://gyazo.com/7a2bcb5ea84fdd3dab96a8fda0090e0f

No what I said was 80% of my biases and edges move in the direction that doesn't mean I am successful 80% of the time there is a big difference because you have to find your way into the trade still and that is not always easy because the market is open 5 days a week 25 hours a day so you do still have to have some luck or write an algo to monitor the market for you like we did at the hedge fund but being a retail trader from home now I don't have that.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JP...P-Long-JPYUSD/


Ok so I posted the chart in Trade view hopeful this shuts up the nonsense and we can just move on with some CONCEPTS.

May 7th 2015 6J Long

Ok so here is my actual trade on my platform you can see the entry and stop price I dont know why this isnt better then tradeview for you guys but whatever

http://gyazo.com/abbe872a5268244e8b64368276bd1fc4

The reasoning for this trade is

1. Fundamentally there has been a large increase in Dealer shorts on the COT (see previous post) this means that the larger players are increasing their bets to the long side.

2. Technically my volume filters are all suggesting they are buying up all dips.

3. we are at the .008350 level and a low volume nod on the Market Profile I will expand on this concept in a post soon to come.

4. At 750 pm est tonight we have the JPY policy statement meetings and they should provide the news catalyst to give me some action on the trade.


I hope this helps be more specific.

u can draw arrows to your targets, there's also a specific button that draws ur long setup or short setup with profit target and stoploss targets.

add that to your published charts.

Ok will do that from now on thanks.

Friday May 8th 2014

Starting out with an update on my 6J Long

I was stopped out over night with a 1.1% loss on my account of $1,187.50 see attachment. Great start to my first week of posting here so far 1 scratch b/e trade 2 missed trades for 80 ticks that could have been a 4% winning week but instead Im down 1.1% on the week lol

http://gyazo.com/86bc9eab91e0cce704be95f4f4c4f1da


We have Non Farms payrolls in 60 mins from now

http://gyazo.com/9d34fb513ee5a9f15643e376acb98098

this is another really tradeable news event notice the expectation of 228k new jobs being expected vs the previous 126k thats a huge variance right?

So the USD should be trading higher right now vs its peers so again Im going to turn your attention the this 6E Euro Dollar futures chart and lets look at it and see if that is the case?

http://gyazo.com/86ab5756630e82c4a20915d68de4ca9a

In fact it is trading lower vs the dollar so the market has priced in the data right?

So how can we now trade this event?

If the data comes in as expected at 228k new jobs then we know that market has priced alot of that move in right? So we could BUY the good news most retail traders would not understand WHY would you buy the EURO when the USD data is good? They then fail to understand the data has priced it into the market already.

So what if the data is Bad?

Well then we can still BUY the Euro right ?

So now we know as long as the data is as expected we can buy or if the data is bad we can still buy the market we are ready to trade the Euro after the data is released IF we see a good level come into play.

There is two other scenarios we want to consider and that is what if the Data is really bad or really good? What we call high variance data in the trading world.

Well then we need to be very fast and trade on a one minute timeframe to get in on the direction quickly and mostly what I will be watching for is bad data because I know the market has priced in the good data already.

Make sense ??

Now obviously I will not be able to post a picture of this trade as its happening because I will have to be very quick to take the trade and manage it so I apologize in advance for this and you can call me a scammer if you will but sorry I have to make money first and post stuff after in this case but I will take a picture of my trading blotter that has time stamps on it if I do.

Anyways get ready for some excitement NFP is what everyone has been waiting for all week.

As per my trade plan above

This is my buy zone on as expected or low variance bad US data

http://gyazo.com/fdd34ed1233cc740a85e71bd12680138

I will also be watching th 6J anywhere inside this box on as expected or low variance bad data.

http://gyazo.com/a3a47f54f3651f4cd30c11d9a9fa5881


If we get high variance data thats when i will be down to the one min charts

Beautiful got a 6J long on just before the report

http://gyazo.com/6bd0ac7b679bddeeb40587e41f173d24


Taking $1900 profits now

http://gyazo.com/daea9fdcd38a59cd62d0542388e8a0a7

Ended the week positive $750 or .75% so not a bad day but a miserable week.

http://gyazo.com/bd3f446a618a9f1c35d9a99daa7bd91d


Sorry again for the speed of this trade but as you can clearly see my trade is on in the first pic and taken off in the second pic and my total PnL on the day also here is my blotter timestamped with the 6J trade I don't know how anyone could scam or change these things but there u have it.


http://gyazo.com/80f3013bfe9ccf9ea4ef19612d16a720

Now before some of you go all ballistic on me and say how could you take a trade right before that NFP blah blah blah retail fear **** let me explain to you why I was able to do that.

Look at this historical chart of the NFP

http://gyazo.com/33a423e3de21a8f5bb0df56dadf0caf8

As you can clearly see the data has been fairly consistent since 2112 right so in order for this to be a very dangerous event to trade we would have had to have the USD lower on the day not higher on the day and already priced in does that make sense to you guys?

So in this case we had priced in a lot of this move already and also in order for the NFP to have been really unknown I would have seen hints of that in at least 3 or 4 other fundamental news releases prior to this one. So that made it relatively safe for me to take the trade before the event and not be too concerned because I had a 1% stop loss in place anyway.

If you have any questions feel free to ask.

Why is it that only the mentally ill guys/idiots end up making personal trading threads?

We have a real problem in this forum. There are some knowledgeable and excellent traders here who've been here for years and I'd love to read their threads and it would no doubt help everyone. Yet because the rules say "no blogs", these intelligent and polite experienced traders follow the rules and make no threads.

Meanwhile we have lying clowns like OP with no edge who thinks that the electronic poker tables in casinos are "rigged" as he didn't make any money and has seen three royal flushes in 100,000 hands over a year (all while apparently holding down a hedge fund job), making rambling posts and treating this as his personal blog, which is zero help to anyone. The last two "blogs "have consisted of:

- This guy (see above for the uselessness)
- A youth pastor called "Zeek" who thought he had a huge edge and was playing options on "converging lines" and predictably went ass up.

This inconsistent moderation is frankly ridiculous and is hurting the quality of this forum. Mods need to one of two things:

a) Follow their own rules and swiftly lock crap like this thread that is even remotely like a personal blog. This should have been locked as soon as this liar claimed he could pick setups daily that worked out 80% of the time. OR
b) Move these to the House of Blogs OR
c) Allow blogs more openly so that experienced guys here who actually make money and have an edge can create some quality blogs.

Please do one of these. Thank you.

Probably because this is not a trade record thread its an educational thread. Dude you got a lot of serious hostility and anger issues. I seriously have to question your motives for all this anger why such a big overbet ? If you would have been paying attention I clearly have taught some valuable concepts so far in this thread!.

I have just shown 2 examples of hedge fund concepts on fundamental news event trading that I'm sure you had no clue about and 99% of the traders in the world still don't understand. AND I still haven't even scratched the surface of just that 1 topic alone !!! I could do another 5 pages on it and I will plus a hell of a lot more then you can ever dream of.


Why don't you shut up and open your mind and learn something ? I haven't even started to teach you guys the tip of the iceburg.




Also if your going to quote a previous post why don't you quote me correctly. That thread your talking about is about the pokerpro software tables that have now been removed from 2 Las Vegas and 1 AC Casinos I wonder why.

http://puu.sh/hGpvC/116713fc7b.png

that button circled in red is the "long" set up button gives it will detail your long entry, exit and stoploss

Ok cool I will try my best to do that going forward as much as possible. It's not always easy to get to another charting screen. I already have 6 monitors and thats barely enough lol but I will try you have my word.

Live Trade May 11th 2014

Ok so as per the request to see live trades as they are taken in trading view.

I haven't had time to give a reason for this trade yet because I just took it but will later

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AU...-Short-Aussie/

Here is the actual trade on my platform you can see its the same thing basically

http://gyazo.com/eff9efcd9a886df872f32c5e1fbec3af

Live Trade 2

6B British pound short

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...pc2-GBP-Short/ or tradeview for proof

and live here on my platform

http://gyazo.com/fd9aa1045e369c99b3c8086c3060f039


Don't worry guys I will EXPLAIN these trades and all the reasons i took them shortly let me just manage them first.

Update

Ok for the record I did get stopped on 6B but there is a reason I will explain later that I am re entering this trade

http://gyazo.com/ed46791dac67eb8d184d4128b0ef4f5e

Update

6B stop now moved to mange the trade better

http://gyazo.com/aee1aee642777de39f071b486eb6975c

6A trade stop moved to mange the trade better

http://gyazo.com/404e86bd4167f44c7d858c7b389681b1


Sorry for all this fast updates guys but this is trading in real time.

Im working on getting that Twitch account going so that you can see this live.

I will also explain everything when i can so that we can all learn from these trades the CONCEPTS behind the trades.

Update

6B took a 2nd much smaller stop on the trade for a net loss of 2% combined

http://gyazo.com/5f3573fad3bd0477206fa6d9c89945a6


6A short is still working and currently breaking even

Update

Added to the 6A short trade

http://gyazo.com/81527d1b205786fefd1516f41740fe8b

I will explain all of these updates and trades at end of day

New Trade 6B British pound

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...dI16CF-GBPUSD/

Ok so I have a little more time to discuss this trade. I'ts my 3rd attempt at shorting the pound today and WHY am I trying 3 times ?

Lets look at this weeks COT report to start.

http://gyazo.com/4dea5a77d31db553f15710298b3146ff

Notice that Open Interest has declined which basically means that there was either profit taking on existing longs or shorts or that there is no real interest in the market right now.

Based on the daily chart of the last week the market is substantially higher so wouldnt it make sense that new positions would be being opened as we move higher?

Now lets see what the market makers / Dealers are doing ? The Dealer Longs have reduced slightly but the Dealer Shorts have increased so that would support the higher prices because they provide the liquidity so that makes sense but what is missing is that we should also see Open Interest rising and we don't so this is a major red flag that this is RETAIL activity at the highs and not Institutional.

So on that basis the short at these highs is warranted.

Now lets turn to the Fundamentals

We just saw the Conservative Party with David Cameron win with a 51% margin and that is positive but does it change anything fundamentally? Well no not really so weve had a strong rally with no fundamental change so thats another reason this fade is looking very good to me.

There are a few more reasons that i will elaborate on but for now lets see how it plays out.

i trade currencies too. on your gbp/usd short, is this meant to be a swing trade or daytrade? i don't have a view currently on this pair (except to note the obvious that the pound is strong).

How old is your COT data? i thought this was released weekly and even then it was 3 days late. aren't you just seeing what has been done rather than what is being done?

i'm not trying to troll you, just interested in your logic. i have previously looked at cot data and, for me, found it to be of limited value.

also, you don't mention where your stops are and what your targets are. this would be useful to know

he needs to use the button on trading view dedicated for long/short setups. it includes entry, exit and stoploss

COT is released every Thursday as you know and yes it is always delayed data and there is a good reason for that !!

That alone should tell you how important it is, Why would the powers that be influence the government enough to keep that data delayed ? The reason is because its very powerful to know but you have to know how to read it and to understand who is who and what function they play in the marketplace.

I will be going into great detail during this thread to share this knowledge with you but my advise is to not take it lightly its very powerful as a trading tool but you also have to be very aware of the current options as they change and I will eventually get into that soon as well but it will take several posts to explain the derivatives markets which is how we track changes in the open interest before the new COT is released.

My GBPUSD or 6B trade is a swing trade and I'm looking for about 400 ticks to the downside on it thats why Im taking a few shots at it.

As far as stops are concerned this is REALLY hard for me to do in this thread because I will move stops all the time as price unfolds both in my favor or against me.

The market is dynamic and just like turns change flops and rivers change turns and flops when price changes so do my stops so I have to give a lot of updates in real time.

Anyways thank you for the questions I know I didn't answer them all exactly but I promise you if you follow along this thread they will be answered over time.

Cheers

All my trades today were shorts so I only saw that button for longs ???