Would be extremely grateful if those of you who are wiser, more intelligent, & more experienced than myself (basically all of you!) would take a look at the following & give me your opinion:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

i chose one movie to watch and can extrapolate it will be quite pessimistic / negative. at a glance, i'd say take the projections of the movie and reduce them by maybe 35-50% and that is likely how bad it will get. now keep in mind i've done nothing more than watch 1.5 minutes of this (the fed part to see where he was coming from) lol

Barron

Barron,
How pessimistic are you?

In the little intro video he says he says something about his 6 hour "End of Money" seminar, I turned it off right there.

I cant figure out where the USD is going. I know pretty good arguments either way made by people who saw the crisis coming. The economy will be in the tank for years of course. Matter of fact I think I will buy more fed funds futures to bet the fed will stay low for longer than the market thinks

well i don't think the market has bottomed nd the economy certainly hasn't (obv). i think there is quite a few expectations still to be killed on the downside. today caught me by surprise as that was one indicator that i didn't expect to be less negative than forecast so that castes some doubt on my pessimism.

so i guess i'm 'medium' pessimistic.

Barron

i've been trying REALLY hard to decide which way i think futures will go and when. what contract are you buying?

Barron

Long 09 Oct and Nov. Thinking of adding, there is just no way in hell the fed raises rates this year, unemployment is a lagging indicator, in the scenario the economy(GDP) recovers during the 2nd half(which I dont think its all that likely), jobs will still be shred every quarter. risk reward is poor, but I think the odds are overwhealming

so you ride this from 99.4 to 99.85? seems like you need a TON of risk here and this can move if the economy picks up (Which i highly doubt it does). what leverage are you getting...i think most i could get is 4:1 or so which puts a 100k margin up per contract so that ties up capital as well...just 'tested' this and it seems it only ties up 2k so IB allows a TON here :-)

Barron

Been riding this one for a while, it was the trade that made me in 2008. contract is worth $400K, so it can wipe me out in a black swanish scenario the fed hikes a ridiculous amount and says more is coming

I keep trying to milk more profits out of them because it just look like free money, I think the fed keeps the zero range through the entire 2010, but I just dont want to risk to go that far
In the last credit crunch(90-91), greenspan keep rates low till feb 1994. Kept at 1% 1 year after 2003. this suggests the first hike is coming at dec 09, but this time is much worse so late 2010 looks more right
When they started to hike, they did 300bps in the first 12 months of hiking of those cycles, so there is a risk out there

have only watched a few of the later ones and they are good. i would recommend people watch these. im gonna watch the rest.

curious to hear peoples opinions, not that any of the information is new, but still worth revisiting.

to answer your question on the future of the dollar and economy...

One will be in the toilet the other in a cesspool for years to come.

Should have bought more fed funds futures, now they run a bit and I hate to pay up

I already watched it before and the crashcourse is quite enlightening.

If you are interested about the future of the U.S. dollar & economy watch these recent videos from markets gurus they have some previsions for 2009

Marc Faber

YouTube - Marc Faber interview on 12.01.08 P1

YouTube - Marc Faber 12/22/08 1/2

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm...xGybnAJsiA.asf


Jim Roger's

YouTube - Jim Rogers Interview 12/13/08 1/4

YouTube - 2009 will be the year of Total decline for US Jim Rogers

YouTube - Jim Rogers: 'Getting out of U.S. dollars' (12.15.08)

Peter Schiff

YouTube - 12/22/2008 Part 1/3 Peter Schiff: Where To Put Your Money

YouTube - Peter Schiff Where to Put Your Money CNBC Jan. 6 2009

I'd be more inclined to buy into the Decline of the U.S. theory if I thought another country would step up and fill the U.S' shoes.

Guys like Schiff seem to think it will be the "Asian Century." I see one major problem with his theory. China and India don't pay their people enough to afford the goods they produce, and if they do eventually pay them American style wages they lose a key competitive edge.

Wrt to the decline of the dollar, people act as though the fed can't eventually suck money out of the system just like they're now injecting it.

If schiff's scenario plays out, USD is devalued enough that the relative purchasing power of chinese and indian salaries become significantly larger.

wouldnt the implications of that for gdp, standard of living and a wide variety of other key factors be disastrous?

I'm not a complete n00b, but close enough when it comes to this: where does one find these spots where one is being laid great odds on longshots (ie, blackswan investing)? I don't mean specifics (though an example would be nice)...I just mean in general.

Thanks

From what I understand, Schiff believes these countries will eventually decouple. If that's the case, what does it matter what the dollar is doing?


Now, yes. Two years down the road might be a different story.

You can buy way out of the money options like Taleb does. for instance if you think there is a chance the peak oil theorists are right and a blackswanish scenario of oil at $200 could happen. You can buy way out of the money $170 calls in CL(crude futures contract) for the year say 2015
If it turns out you are right, the payoff is huge

So really, all you're doing is taking event z with x odds and y probability, and if you think that the real probability is >y, then you take the investment? (And then, BR management is obviously key).

Ugh, can't believe I'm witnessing this **** first hand right infront of my eyes. I love America, this is a sad day for all. I wonder what Jim Rogers thinks of Canada, I bet great things imo. I wonder if it's time for me to reposition myself like he did and live either near where all the commodities are (Alberta and Sask) or just head over to Asia and build a life there. Who knows, I've got a lot to think about in the next few months.

These clips are really enlightening, thanks for sharing.

I have been thinking about some statements/previsions made by C.Powell and J.Biden.

Colin Powell has made bizarre comments that echo the declaration by Democratic VP Joe Biden that there will be an "international crisis" early into Barack Obama's presidency that will test the new president by forcing him to make unpopular decisions.

http://br.youtube.com/watch?v=dOwb9l0DtRA&eur

Speaking on meet the press two days ago, Powell officially endorsed Obama and also made the following statement:

"The problems will always be there and there's going to be a crisis which will come along on the 21st, 22nd of January that we don't even know about right now.

http://br.youtube.com/watch?v=_LDBOPcHpeo&eurl


Was Colin Powell referring to a theoretical crisis that could occur at any time? If so why does he choose a specific date, within the first two days after the inauguration? Also why does he refer to general problems that the new president will have to deal with in a separate context? We are already in an economic crisis, everyone knows that, so what new crisis is Powell talking about?

There is a recent "rumour" about JPMorgan that have been worrying me.

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=338355

Does Israel/Gaza count as this crisis? Looks like they're really willing to cross the point of no return and turn this into a huge deal.

As much as I respect Colin Powell for his past service to our country I believe he has become a Scientoligist and is studying astrology these days.

Meh. I wouldnt put too much stock into the 21, 22 thing. Hes just saying Obama is gonna have a lot of crap to deal with from day 1 since the 20th is inauguration. Im not gonna see the whole interview but I'm sure its within a certain context.

As for JPM, they might be having WM indigestion...