February Trading Thread

[savant111]

Originally Posted by zmyworldz

I just started investing a couple thousand on the side as a test run.

I was wondering how do you all scan for stocks? There are thousands of ticker but its hard to filter these ticker out.

I have the TOS platform but the companies I filter are not too impressive.

How do you filter out stocks? I'm looking mainly at fundamentals and also a more of a Macroecon approach for looking at different sectors and just filter out some companies from the top performers. Where you do you get your "watch list"? I want to find some obscure smallcap to mid cap stocks that are outperforming with strong fundamentals.

You can run screens on Etrade for stocks that have the fundamentals you are interested in. Also, you might want to check out stock twits and follow investors that have a similar mindset as you.

[savant111]

Originally Posted by gna

thoughts on bhi?

I don't know much about their business, but revenue and eps growth looks pretty good.

The chart looks a little scary to me (but again i dnt know the company's story).
See how it acts this week. If it dips below 49.22 it's def not ready to buy. If it bounces back into the 50's it might be worth researching. I'd want to know what is behind the dip (probably natural gas prices) and why it's going to change.

Also, there are some garbage assets on the balance sheet.

[savant111]

Originally Posted by JReezy

Been following broadvision closely past couple weeks, insane rollercoaster. Really tough to get a borrow.

Didn't know it was tough to borrow

What price would you initiate a short if you could get it? Also, I'm guessing you wouldn't buy your whole position at once right? If there is a significant chance that you won't be able to borrow shares when/if you need to short more, this is probably too dangerous correct?

If someone is running an outright scam, how can we accurately predict when they will cut bait?

[tastychicken]

Originally Posted by savant111

I don't know much about their business, but revenue and eps growth looks pretty good.

The chart looks a little scary to me (but again i dnt know the company's story).
See how it acts this week. If it dips below 49.22 it's def not ready to buy. If it bounces back into the 50's it might be worth researching. I'd want to know what is behind the dip (probably natural gas prices) and why it's going to change.

Also, there are some garbage assets on the balance sheet.

i've looked at this industry a little before. what are the garbage assets on their balance sheet?

[WutRUTryin2Hit]

Originally Posted by savant111

If someone is running an outright scam, how can we accurately predict when they will cut bait?

Here is an article with more details about the scam. I looked it up because I didn't know anyone ran anything pump/dump-y on this level, and was curious/skeptical (I mean a $37 stock going 500,000 trades over it's average volume in one day).

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/02/...k-broadvision/

side note: I read this article recently which talks about Broadvision and attributes it's rise to some other IPO, I remember reading this a couple of weeks ago and thinking it sounded weird, but didn't really give it much thought: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3217...les-who-s-next

[Xon]

Originally Posted by Sotiria

Thoughts on THQI? They took a beating after the last earnings report and putting a ton of capital into a crappy IP. Looks like they'll be cutting costs and dropping their less profitable IP's in favor of the major ones.

I am 72.354% sure nintendo or EA will buy them.

If you don't feel the same way I wouldnt touch it. They will most likely cancel the new warhammer mmo (even though they are trying to say nothing has been canceled yet) they just don't have the money to continue developing it. Estimated development cost is 50m+ and 10m a year in running costs....take a look at their market cap lol. I really dont see what else will keep them afloat. Create new IPs and hope for the best?

Like I said though really good chance they will be bought. Nintendo needs more developers and it has to look good for EA (ufc license that they have always wanted, wwe)

[savant111]

Originally Posted by tastychicken

i've looked at this industry a little before. what are the garbage assets on their balance sheet?

I'm going to stop using generic terms like "pretty balance sheet" and "garbage assets, because I'm probably wrong in using them". In truth I use them because I'm still learning how the in's and outs of these things. I'm going to try and be more specific, forgive me if I make errors in my analysis.

I thought the good will and intangible assets were on the high side. It spiked up 4 quarters ago and has yet to be amortized.

This type of asset has less legitimacy than cash or accounts receivable, because they are counting on a company they purchased in the past to appreciate in value and that might not happen.

[Kylen83]

Zgnx anyone?

[twofingerted]

Long TLT 4/20/12 116 puts at 4.25605.

Time to sell dem bonds. Also, I figure it's good luck because of 4/20 yo.

Oh and I'm only going to risk like .50 per option too, because I'm a little gurr.

[HyperionMark]

Originally Posted by twofingerted

Any commodity...except probably real estate.

Edit: and maybe nat gas

isn't leveraged real estate good to have during inflation? your debt becomes more and more insignificant while your property "should" become more valuable

[twofingerted]

Originally Posted by HyperionMark

isn't leveraged real estate good to have during inflation? your debt becomes more and more insignificant while your property "should" become more valuable

Honestly I'm not sure because I'm fairly ignorant on real estate. I could have been wrong in saying that. I doubt higher interest rates that would come with inflation would be good for the U.S. real estate market. Commercial real estate and owning apartment properties etc. it could be fantastic. I don't know.

[twofingerted]

Originally Posted by HyperionMark

isn't leveraged real estate good to have during inflation? your debt becomes more and more insignificant while your property "should" become more valuable

Also your assuming that residential real estate in the U.S. is "scarce". I think that could be argued as well.

[d2themfi]

Originally Posted by ahnuld

yeah look at the stocks that outperformed last fall during QE2 and you will see what is leveraged. so the above would perform well and probably some other agro stocks like CF. Another thing if you think inflation is going to be really big, is to invest in companies with good pricing power and tons of debt due in a long time. High inflation means that debt is really easy to pay back and it all accrus to equity.

Wouldn't high inflation probably force the fed to raise interest rates, which would make servicing the debt harder, thus counteracting some or all of the benefit of inflation to a debtor? I'm no expert here, so am asking a question, not a statement fwiw.

[twofingerted]

The fed wants inflation and they have already stated that they will keep the rates at 0 until 2014.

[d2themfi]

Originally Posted by twofingerted

The fed wants inflation and they have already stated that they will keep the rates at 0 until 2014.

I know. I think we were talking about if inflation greatly exceeds the Feds projections. At least that's what I meant