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Old 02-15-2012, 02:33 AM   #181
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Re: February Trading Thread

New to the BFI sector of 2p2, but will try and be here more, learning and contributing (more learning)

DryShips (DRYS)

Was $2.02, 2 months ago, closed today @ 3.74. This is my sleeper for a little bit, we'll see how long I like it. Sometimes like to mess around cheap, Cheap 4 Heaps. It's suggested that the stock is undervalued, but we all know how investors feel about the dry bulk sector.

What do others think of the shipping market?
Biggest gains today: EGLE (+14%), DRYS (+10%), SBLK (+8%), DSX (+7%)
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Old 02-15-2012, 09:08 AM   #182
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Re: February Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by tagtastic View Post
fyp
lol...just cuz it did that during a freak quarter doesn't mean it currently "makes" that.

it was actually less than half that if you look back at the preceding year

not saying it isn't an amazing company, just saying it is starting to get out of hand...and there obviously will be a decline at some point
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Old 02-15-2012, 10:30 AM   #183
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Re: February Trading Thread

I recall a couple people mentioning LIZ a couple months ago as an attractive short when it was around $8. Now that is $10, is it more of a short, or have conditions changed?
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Old 02-15-2012, 04:55 PM   #184
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Re: February Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by JohnnyHumongous View Post
I recall a couple people mentioning LIZ a couple months ago as an attractive short when it was around $8. Now that is $10, is it more of a short, or have conditions changed?
Conditions have changed. I would not short it now.
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Old 02-15-2012, 04:57 PM   #185
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Re: February Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by savant111 View Post
The bounce paired with the high volume seemed bullish to me also. Sellers might be running thin. I still need the market to cooperate though. Not sure I'm out of the woods yet. Where do you see the general market direction going next 2 to 3 weeks?

Funny I just heard the term hammer today for the first time on the power trade radio podcast. Im guessing it's called that because of the big bounce and close near the high? (i.e the candlestick looks like a hammer?)
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...o_candlesticks
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Old 02-15-2012, 05:08 PM   #186
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Re: February Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by savant111 View Post
Here are some concerns I would have this one. I'd like to know more about your thought process and would be interested in your response to each:

1) the volume looks pretty ugly to me. Lots of big red bars on the down days.
2) the 20 day previously seemed to be a support level for the stock. It is now directly under it. Couldn't this be possible resistance? Why not at least wait for it to cross Tom before entering?
3) are you worried about the general market? I've noticed the vix and tilt start to trend up and the fxe start to trend down. Also a few leading stocks are starting to lag.
4) SSYS has been lagging the market for the last month. Typically a bad sign for a high valuation stock

I get that your looking to buy dips and can keep a tight stop here, but do any of the above concern you?
Good questions,

1) I do primarily volume analysis and yes the volume was average to above average on the red bars, but what's very important is the open/close/high/low price on those days. You can actually build bullish momentum on consecutive down days if the close is continually above the low of the day. And you'll notice that all of the red down days closed above their low. Now I wait for the trigger which is usually the first black day.

2) I look at EMA not MA. We are actually above the 20 day EMA now which I consider support, not resistance.

3) Absolutely, I'm always worried about the general market. I'm always looking to be properly hedged. Because I'm long SSYS, I'll also try to be short a similar security (price, volume and volatility considered)

4) SSYS was performing with the market until about a week ago. After earnings they went through a consolidation period which appears to be nearing a close. I expected today to be a run-up which it was early on, but then Nasdaq did a nose dive. I'm sure the run-up will be tested again in the next few days.

SSYS held up pretty well in today's trading. NASDAQ took a complete nose dive about midway. I'm still bullish on SSYS, but will be watching it very closely the next few days. If it starts acting funny I'll exit my position early.
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Old 02-15-2012, 07:01 PM   #187
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Re: February Trading Thread

kudos to the poster (Mori****a?) that was talking up GRVY in Nov & Dec when it was under $1.
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Old 02-15-2012, 07:42 PM   #188
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Quote:
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kudos to the poster (Mori****a?) that was talking up GRVY in Nov & Dec when it was under $1.
Indeed, that was a good write up. I've actually been in the position since the fall of 2009 and it is very gratifying right now but I expect bigger things to come.
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Old 02-15-2012, 08:05 PM   #189
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Re: February Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by Mediocre_Player View Post
kudos to the poster (Mori****a?) that was talking up GRVY in Nov & Dec when it was under $1.
I really think they are still undervalued.
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Old 02-15-2012, 08:23 PM   #190
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Re: February Trading Thread

Thanks, but I still think it's too early to tell whether I was right or not.
However, I think it is still very undervalued since it's still trading below book and RO2 isn't even out yet. Plus, Ragnarok Odyssey turned out quite well.

I won't be adding since it's already over 1/3rd of my portfolio and I'm trying to build a different position.
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Old 02-15-2012, 08:33 PM   #191
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Re: February Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by Mori****a System View Post
Thanks, but I still think it's too early to tell whether I was right or not.
However, I think it is still very undervalued since it's still trading below book and RO2 isn't even out yet. Plus, Ragnarok Odyssey turned out quite well.

I won't be adding since it's already over 1/3rd of my portfolio and I'm trying to build a different position.
I'm thinking about switching my position on DRYS with GRVY.
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Old 02-15-2012, 10:15 PM   #192
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Re: February Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by zmyworldz View Post
I'm thinking about switching my position on DRYS with GRVY.
what do you like about DRYS?
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Old 02-16-2012, 12:02 AM   #193
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Re: February Trading Thread

Tbh, I was playing DRYS as a speculative long. I think they are undervalued and took a big hit due to the Greek Crisis. Once Greek Defaults, their goods will be extremely cheap and their exports rise, I see a better trend for their operations in the near future. The stock at $3 is a bargain and any good or bad news will cause the current bullish market to overreact.They have other operations as well ect ect ect. I'll ride it out in the short run and react in the mid to long run.

Look at DMND, 1 dude that wrote 1 article changing the target price to $35 instantly caused a 5% rise.

Although I do see myself profit taking DRYS if it hits $5, I think GRVY will get my cash alot quicker due to their recent good news of RO and future facebook deals. However, Nexon seems a little ahead of their game.
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Old 02-16-2012, 07:23 AM   #194
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Re: February Trading Thread

the largest shareholder of drys uses it to generate profits for his shipbuilding company. sketchy, would not ever own
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Old 02-16-2012, 07:35 PM   #195
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Re: February Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by ahnuld View Post
the largest shareholder of drys uses it to generate profits for his shipbuilding company. sketchy, would not ever own
Yea I'm probably dumping in several weeks. Switched to GRVY.

My DMND and DO are about to run. DMND from overselling and DO with the new energy bill.

I'm also waiting for a good entry point for BIDU
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