Yeah. After some initial stumbling blocks I guessed at the number of apples and grapes purchased annually by households (assuming # of households is population divided by 3), then what these means for revenue, how much of this market the new invention will capture, and then said 5% of revenue will be spent on marketing.

I also got asked to estimate the number of gas stations in Illinois and I think I did pretty well on that one. Similar approach.

Could someone explain to me how China Petrol sells for 100+ USD on the American market and around 7 RMB on the Chinese market?

Do both of these stocks share the same amount of risk?

It seems counter intuitive that a stock worth 100 dollars and a stock worth 1 dollar have the same chance of going bankrupt or doubling up.

Sorry, I'm not very informed here.

savant111; you seem like a smart, nice guy and I enjoy your posts, but it sounds like you are making way too many trades.

What do you guys think about USO versus UGA, VDE, and XLE?

It trades at a 100:1 ratio; in other words, you (well, probably not you, but a financial institution) could ask the depository bank, such as Bank of New York or JP Morgan, to convert one share of the U.S. line into 100 shares of the Hong Kong line. This fungibility keeps the stocks trading in line, adjusted for currency and the 100:1 ratio.

Note that stocks that are dual listed in China and the U.S. (or even just China and Hong Kong) are not fungible , so there may be some spreads between those share classes.

What was your guess?

My ultimate answer was 3,500. Which is pretty close to the actual answer of ~4,500.

A few of my recent sells (Titn twice, AAPl, all of which proved to be too early) were due to me being spooked by the market. This is my first bull market and I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. Even now I think the oil situation is going to cause at least a pullback if not a correction. More experience will help me read market direction better over time.

biib was a day/swing trade by design.

One benefit to frequent trading is I get more experience reading charts, reading financial statements, and weighing the pros vs con of potential investments all of which help speed up the learning curve.

AAPL is still dirt cheap. buy more.

using adjusted earnings. the 6200 pe is correct using gaap

Thanks a lot for explaining that to me. That makes a lot of sense and is definitely why I was confused.

This brings up another question for me though:

If I'm comparing this stock that trades at about $1 on the China market and $100 on the US market with a stock that trades for $1 on the China market but does not trade on any other market then is the value of the second one more susceptible to penny stock type of scams?

+1, though I'm sure most of you are sick of hearing about it by now

Plan for this week is to stay in cash. Oil is already spooking the market and it seems like S&P and DJIA finally have clear resistance levels and I doubt they will break this week.
European headline risk also seems to be back on the table.

If I could place one bet this week, I'd put my money on the vix going higher. It's going to hit 18.50 and I wouldn't be surprised to see it reach 20. I have no idea how to do that on E-trade nor do I understand how options work so I guess I'll be on the sidelines.

Other then that I'll be looking to strengthen my long watch list and start a new short watch list. I'm also going to check out the JAZZ earnings report on Monday. I think Autozone also reports this week.

Oil inventories on Wed I'll also be watching.

In on wfc @ 30.98.
holding on to my aapl for the long-term. im starting to think it makes good sense to hold stocks for a year+ to take advantage of the capital gains tax rate

any thoughts on cbis?

had my eyes on it when it was 0.3 but couldnt pull the trigger

i got a handful of it...but i like the gambooling

This is laughable.

You can do all that without trading or a dime to your name. There is literally, ZERO benefit for you to trade frequently because you are not going to be in the top 1% or 0.1% who can benefit from doing so -- you simply will not be able to out-trade the market-makers and:
a) the smartest and fastest HFs in the world, HFT or not,
b) while paying the commissions and fees you're gonna pay,
c) and slippage,
d) and b-o spread,
e) and taxes.

It's amazing how many geniuses come out of the woodwork at 2p2 and other 'social' sites during a bull market talking about trading a lot, or how much they've been making, and 99.9999% of them are not around for the bear market, or simply don't report results, or get short too early and go busto. I've been watching it happen for ~12 years now and it's never going to change.

No diff than the people here who think they can beat the fx market, or futures, or trade on high leverage or etc. If you're doing more than ~25 trades a year you're doing it wrong* [counting legging in/out of a position as 1 trade.]

Frankly, you'd be well ahead of the game to admit upfront you cannot beat the pros, look to learn from them, figure out how they can beat you in ways you cannot match, focus on the areas where you can be superior [ultra micro-caps, spc sit, pure arbs] none of which require frequent trading.

I say this as a recovering over-trader, who runs a big book, and someone who doesn't mind speculating on binary events. I bot PCLN today a few minutes before the close - easily could have been down now as up, but got it right this time. I'm not saying never take a punt but it should be rare as in 1-2 a year as a pure spec.


* Obvs, there may be internal/external exogenous events that require you to make a liquidation of most/all of your portfolio, or a sudden cash windfall that allows you to buy a more diversified portfolio, etc. These are rare, generally life-changing events.

First of all DBAA. I never claimed to be an expert, nor have I bragged about any profits in a bull market. If anything I repeatedly mention in my posts about how I'm trying to learn and always mention my inexperience. A little more than a month ago I decided to post every trade as soon as I made it. I'm doing it because posting it on 2+2 makes me rethink and reanalyze my rationale. Also, don't pretend trading is rocket science it isn't.

Second, I'm making a trade a week. My post was in response to CTS saying I was making too many trades. It not like I'm making 20 a day or anything. "Frequent trading" was the wrong term. My point is that I'm willing to make more mistakes so I can learn from them and make adjustments.

Savant, this is probably some of the best advice you'll ever get in terms of beating the stock market on this forum. I hope you're not quickly dismissing it and are actually trying to process what he's saying.

Also, while I agree investing isn't rocket science, you are still competing in a market with other participants. Every time you take a position someone is taking the opposite position. What gives you an edge versus your competitor?

I decided to give trading a try after Black Friday just to replace hobbies. I stumbled into swing trading because I'm friends with a guy who does it professionally. Occasionally, we go to lunch and I can pick his brain. Small - Large caps had the most readily available learning tools for me so I decided to start there. Tbh, I don't even understand options let alone have any idea what spc sit, or pure arbs are. The plan is to learn swing trading (which I imagine will take years) and then move on to other strategies. Najdor's advice might be sound, but for now 1) I'm having fun doing what i'm doing and 2) don't have the time to invest in other strategies.

I understand that someone is always on the other side of every trade I make. I hope my edge over other participants will eventually be logic and discipline. Also, from what I understand swing trading is about following the smart money not trying to go HU vs them

Short JCP at 41.45

Bear Case:
-Price has been slowly decending on increasing volume last few sessions
-Revenue Decreased in 2011 while cost of sales increased.
-45 PE is unjustified at this point
-The stock has simply run up to fast too quick. The future looks better but it's going to take a while. Management has pretty much said this as well. There are a lot of people who have 20% profits in this. If the market pulls back I think is a good canidate for a sell off
-Current price is already above 1 yr target estimates

Bull case:
Ron ****ing Swanson, um I mean Johnson

Planning to keep a tighter stop than usual on this one. Shorting this market = danger. I can always put it back on later.

i'm also in the short crm trade. should have covered when it broke 100 to start the year, but I really think its getting cut in half at a minimum.

So, SHLD.

This thing is a piece of ****. I've talked to smart people who believe this is a zero within a few years. The problem is, Eddie Lampert could keep conducting big sales to raise some cash and push that time horizon out a little farther, squeezing the shorts in the process.

Regardless, I sold some March 75 calls on this thing yesterday, and there is still some significant juice in these. The borrow is almost impossible to get right now so the puts are very expensive and shorts are getting bought in. It looks to me like the latest short squeeze is over, and I'm planning to hold this short call position until expiration.

Your biggest risk in the meantime is another announced store sale that rips your face off if you're short. A risk I'm willing to take.

Got in GRVY @ 2.53. I hope the trend reverses when the game launches.

I am also now officially hating my SQQQ purchase @ $13.64. I am going to hold this for the next month to see what happens. It will probably reverse the day I sell with my luck.