February Trading Thread - Page 11 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

I don't have a good enough reason, both seem pretty comparable. My buddy interned at a hedge fund the past summer and got to know some of the TWO guys and basically said they're really smart and he would trust them with all his money. As for a quantitative analysis, I have none. (anti-zing!)

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02-23-2012 , 02:26 PM

#252

savant111

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Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 3,101

Love the way DECK is moving today. It's giving me a nice little cushion in case i'm wrong. If I'm right this thing is going to break $100. Can't wait to read the report when I get home from work.

Uggs was the #4 searched item on google this holiday season. Still feel like q4 is going to be a blowout. Only thing that worries me is guidance. Production costs are on the rise.

Gogogogogogo

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02-23-2012 , 03:21 PM

#253

stinkypete

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,783

long march VIX at 20.60 imo

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02-23-2012 , 05:52 PM

#254

SenatorKevin

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Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by smartalecc5

lol nice. I found out about ARR through a buddy who is a financial analyst. he seemed to like it and i threw it in my list of things to track to see how it fared, forgot about it until recently.

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02-23-2012 , 06:35 PM

#255

NxtWrldChamp

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Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 9,082

Quote:

Originally Posted by savant111

Bad guidance smoked the stock down 10% in the after hours. Nasty.

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02-23-2012 , 06:53 PM

#256

highpsiguy

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 854

UGGs are a fading fad my man, perhaps they are built to well, I know the women in my life have UGGs but none of them have replaced a pair in at least 2 years.

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02-23-2012 , 06:55 PM

#257

Somnius

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 556

Bought in to MRVL before closing, they beat estimates and price is up a bit after hours. Should do well moving forward especially after showing this type of resilience. Hope I'm not missing something or mis-interpreting.

Anyone else like them?

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02-23-2012 , 08:13 PM

#258

DeezNuts

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

Getting killed AH on my CRM short position @ 130 ahead of earnings.

I don't understand this company and its P/E, but whatever.

Yayyyy.....ugh.

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02-23-2012 , 08:37 PM

#259

smartalecc5

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its only money, right?

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02-23-2012 , 08:58 PM

#260

DeezNuts

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

That's what I tell myself, but then my anus starts aching.

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02-23-2012 , 09:04 PM

#261

Xaston

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 4,529

Heh I'm short CRM too. All they do is lose money and grow not that quickly. Only a matter of time before the valuation comes back to reality.

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02-23-2012 , 09:05 PM

#262

savant111

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Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 3,101

Quote:

Originally Posted by NxtWrldChamp

Bad guidance smoked the stock down 10% in the after hours. Nasty.

Yeah reading through report now to figure If I want to sell or wait. At least I was right the warm weather stories were bs.

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02-23-2012 , 09:20 PM

#263

highpsiguy

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 854

CRM (assuming you mean salesforce.com) is listed at 6,200 PE on google finance.

Is that real?

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02-23-2012 , 09:30 PM

#264

savant111

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 3,101

Anybody who has advice on DECK I'm listening. Basically they said rising Sheep skin costs are going to keep earnings flat in 2012. They have pricing power, huge international growth, a developing men's line for uggs, a new acquisition they love, and announced a 100 million share buy back. The actual sales numbers were huge too.

Can a little margin compression do this much damage? The stock is a ready down more than 20% from the December highs. Why isnt rising sheep skin already priced in?

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02-23-2012 , 09:42 PM

#265

cky23k

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 348

Quote:

Originally Posted by highpsiguy

CRM (assuming you mean salesforce.com) is listed at 6,200 PE on google finance.

Is that real?

I see that too, but it's wrong. It's about a 100 PE using 2011 numbers.

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02-23-2012 , 09:47 PM

#266

cky23k

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 348

Quote:

Originally Posted by cky23k

Swing trading SSYS from the long side. Bought in today, looking for $39-$40 range within a week or two.

SSYS rallied today hitting $39, took 6 days since entry. I'll keep a close eye on it, hopefully can rally to $40 ish in the next few days. If not, I'll take my profit.

Also, bought into HOG two days ago at $46. Very bullish technicals there, lets see if rally continues, but looking for an exit with SSYS in the next few days.

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02-23-2012 , 09:55 PM

#267

MaliceUW

banned

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 5,490

who had vvus?

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02-23-2012 , 10:07 PM

#268

cky23k

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 348

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaliceUW

who had vvus?

Maybe not a bad short at these levels?

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02-23-2012 , 10:11 PM

#269

m_reed05

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Add me to the list of ppl who got hammered by crm today.

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02-23-2012 , 10:50 PM

#270

savant111

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Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 3,101

Listening to the deck call. They apparently don't have too much pricing power and are scared it will cost them market share. I usually keep an 8% max stop loss. I think I'm going to respect it when it hits 79.xx Tom.

on to the next one I guess.

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02-23-2012 , 11:12 PM

#271

chuckbomb

adept

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 773

Man the charts of some of these Chinese cement companies (2233 HK, West China Cement Co., e.g.) make my pants tight.

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02-23-2012 , 11:25 PM

#272

savant111

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 3,101

One last thing I learned fm conf call. sheepskin prices increased 80% fm 2010-2012. I guess calling it "a little margin compression" as I did earlier is an understatement. They did say they saw prices close to topping and it e possible to come down in q3.

Leaning towards selling, but Still not 100% sure on what to do. $80 feels too cheap. Any opinions CKY, tasty chicken, xaston?

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02-24-2012 , 01:15 PM

#273

savant111

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Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 3,101

Sold at my stop loss of 79.86. My gut tells me I could of held on and got around 83 after the sellers dried up. In the end I didn't want to risk more than an 8% loss.

Save the chips for a +ev spot right?

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02-24-2012 , 01:50 PM

#274

Biesterfield

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Actual interview question received yesterday: You have invented a new fruit: a cross between a grape and an apple (a grapple). How much do you spend on marketing in your first year? (No other information given, looking for a specific number)