Bought Titn b4 the close at 24.43

It dipped to support levels today and can keep a real tight stop
Positive construction numbers came out today
Tsco reports at the close. Prob a good qtr, prob good for Titn who sells a lot of tractors
Nice rev growth
Crushed the last qtr
Still relatively cheap at 13pe

subscribing.

Thoughts on Amzn after their recent drop?

How many people under 30 don't go to amazon first when they're looking to buy something?

i love amazon to death and make a lot of purchases on it. i'm 26.

but i think their profit margins are way too thin (and will remain so). It's just a part of the business they are in, and I don't have an especially great outlook on them (vs apple), so i'm staying away. i like their long term prospects, but i think there are better choices out there that should offer better value for the stock price

Bought Dow Chemical on 1/31 ahead of earnings. Expecting them to beat estimates again.

Well put frinxor. Amazon is along way from having the fundamentals to justify the valuation. Great site, risky stock

Can someone quickly explain the rational behind AMZNs valuation? Anyone follow this company closely care to fill me in, I'd be interested in learning.

I'm 24 and have been on Amazon's website exactly one time in my life and that was to buy a kindle for my mom last Christmas. I wasn't impressed by the website's layout or navigation. I have spent far more time looking at the stock than I ever will spend on the site.

I'll give it a shot without going too indepth. First off, Amazon is considered by nearly everyone as the company that is going to absolutely dominate retail online (which is always part of the equation -- they are the structural winner). I don't own amazon, but if it sold at multiples similar to other retailers it'd be my biggest holding by far. (I love amazon -- spend about 15k a year on the site -- mostly stuff for my kid)

Amazon chooses to forgo current profits for future profits/cashflow. From the very start they've told you that this is their strategy (they took this playbook out of Costco and Walmart's play book). Some companies try to expand profit margins (think apple or and luxury retailer). Amazon's strategy is to work with the smallest of profit margins to gain market share by A) crushing their competition who cannot operate profitably at similar price pts and B) investing their profits back into their customers (customer satisfaction and acquisition).

A fun question to ask people, especially the younger generation is what percentage of retail sales are done online. Answer Below the paragraph. If this # explodes as is expected and Amazon continues to gain share and widen their moat as they have thus far (Estimated 13% of global ecommerce in 2011) they'll easily grow into their valuation (you never know if they'll continue to be able to do this -- especially internationally in places like China, etc). Just plug in the numbers expected growth in the overall market online, online sales growth, Amazon's increased share. Well that's the bull thesis at least.

For the guy who thinks their profit margins are thin -- that's just the way they like it. they figure with their infrastructure (best in class by far) if they squeeze margins -- it will just be impossible to compete with them over the long haul. Their operating margins have been 0.5% to 1.5% generally. If they were to increase prices by 50 cents for every $100 i doubt they'll lose too many customers. They can increase their profits at any time.

3.0%

duplicate.

come onnnnn, how can you talk about Amzn and not mention Kindle? Kindle Fire? The stock isn't trading at like a 95 p/e (over 100 when you back out cash) because they sell a lot of paperback books.

But I agree with the dilemna they're facing in margins. As other b&m retailers fall by the wayside, it's leaving the remaining ones in a fight to the bottom.

FTPdelay sums up the reason why someone is in amazon pretty well.

They are absolutely killing the market and gaining share. Their current net income could also be argued as "depressed" since they are investing heavily at the moment (which is what you want anyways).

Almost all my online shopping comes from amazon. Once in a while I find something good on slickdeals and have to go to another site. The thing that keeps amazon #1 for me is def. the consistency + quality.

and anyways... never had a position in the stock but i love the company.

Thanks FTPdelaysuck. Really appreciate it.

Wow - crazy. Where is that stat from?

Great stuff about the company overall - thanks!

Goldman.. it was the estimated # for 2011 it was 2.7% in 2010.

anyone own (i don't) or look at FLL?

Is that in the U.S. or worldwide? Also, what goes under the umbrella of retail commerce? Big ticket items like cars? Groceries?

Missed estimates, sold this morning. Only took a small loss because of the 1.5% runup yesterday.

Regarding Amazon, I'd say this:

and this:

I'm a big fan of Amazon as a customer.

I've made pretty much any purchase I could from Amazon for years now, but just last year got the Kindle for my wife and for me. We are both big readers (first comment people make on entering our apartment is usually: "Wow, you have a lot of books"), and we were both suspicious of eReaders and were in no hurry to get them.

It took me about 3 days to fall in love with it. My wife was on the fence for a few weeks until they started allowing library book lending through the kindle. Now she loves it. I expect 75-85% of our future book purchases will be via Kindle.

I don't own the stock largely because I thought it was expensive, but I've been rethinking that. I may just start selling the 165 or 170 put until I do own the stock.

CS undervalued compared to peers?

LNKD and ZYNG are up 7% and 15% respectively today, presumably on the Facebook IPO. I guess the reason is that the docs showed FB making 12% of it's money from Zynga, and I guess people just figure if Facebook is doing as well as it is, Linked In must be?

Feels like there is a possibility of some hysteria though, like "ok it's go time, let's load up on anything related to Facebook".. curious if this'll happen again closer to the actual IPO, perhaps there could be some influx of retail investors who usually just buy mutual funds or something? Thoughts?

EDIT: Groupon also up 10%, apparently on FB news, which makes me laugh, since (a) it's such a dog and (b) it is not remotely a social networking site.

you guys think its about time to buy anf? i dont see it going down more.

Jan. '13 GLW $20 calls are $.15. Seems like a decent gamble no?

You might be right, but I wouldn't buy into this down trend.

They're rise is credited largely to European expansion. With an impending recession in Europe always on the radar it's hard to imagine the street changing their perception of the stock without a big earnings report.

They report on the 13th, better off waiting and seeing imo.

yea prob a good call. Did you guys see the NOV earnings? pretty sexy

Sold Titn today for 24.60 for a whooping $34 profit lol (I consider myself lucky though).

TSCO went down on earnings report so I didn't get the pop I wanted, the market seems to be at resistance, and the jobs report tomorrow probably presents more downside risk then up. Titn is also resting at a support level, and I didn't want to risk it dropping under tomorrow. Felt like a good time to protect capital.

Done trading for today. Next move is to read job report tomorrow, listen to the BAH conference call, and monitor DECK which looks like it might finally pop soon.

Also, I'm looking for companies to add to my watch list so if anybody has some potential ideas I'm all ears! (Rationale would be appreciated)