DC

You seeing any of this bad subprime mortgage data making the rounds? You changing your take on this one at all at this point in the cycle?

By the way....i have some HF friends who have been buying KKD FWIW.

Nope and nope. I'm pretty confident about NICK's underwriting standards. My thesis is they are dealing with the fallout fromt the real estate bubble bursting in Florida, which do to having a bunch of fraudulant speculation, is way over built. The construction workers that NICK financed are having big troubles now. I don't know how long it will take, but expect them to eventually work through those issues and continue growing as before. As long as we don't get the double whammy of a recession:

I hope it works out for them. But I think it's insanely overpriced. And they are still shrinking, they shut another store yesterday. I bought some more 08 $10 puts earlier this month, but am primarily letting my positions unwind and taking my losses.

DC

Thanks for posting your insight on this stock. I'm defintely a newbie when it comes to stocks but tried to educate myself by reading Graham earlier this month. I have since read it a second time.

I've been keeping an eye out for NICK and also ADM and ACH. Both ADM and ACH had a nice little bump today but I didnt have a position. However, I did buy NICK this evening. My first purchase in the ROTH I just set up. Time to start planning where to put my 2007 ROTH contribution

Just remember, if NICK turns out to be a dog, don't blame me. But if it turns out to be great, send me money The risks have been laid out pretty clearly here, by Scorpion Man and others. I'm a big NICK fan, still holding and I have about 20-25% of my net worth in it. But I could be wrong and I reserve the right to change my mind and dump my shares at any time without warning you or anyone.* Always think for yourself.

good luck...

* This is my version of typical "cover my ass" boilerplate.

DC, after due dilligence I got in on NICK as well. Sleepy growth potential, but seems like there is just enough kick behind its record of increasing earnings that it won't become a value trap. I don't have a huge position at this point, about 2.5% of my total portfolio, which represents about 1/2 my normal position. I'll get more in if the company becomes even cheaper or if I learn more that seems to dampen the risk factor.

James

Would the fact that personal debt in the US insing, and the result of higher occurance of bankruptcy benifit NICK in the long term? If I am not mistaken this company loans money to people with past troubles and low credit and since the group will likely increase at a faster rate, so would NICK?

No need for the CYA. Graham taught me to never invest without serious research. Though, at this point, I have no clue how effective my researching skills might be. My position is quite small.

jefferies just initiated research on NICK, i guess we shall find out if many of you are right or not, an analyst upgrade would help the stock a bit.

I am not a technician but NICk has a chart only a mother could love. I liked the opposite side of KKD and I will take the opposite side here too. DC, I think you marry stocks a bit. It's a very dangerous leak if I am right.

judging a stock by its chart seems dumb scorpion man

its not my only reasoning. many of the most successful investors in the world use charts...i happen not to be a chartist...but some charts speak to me and this one SUCKS

Well the last six months sure looks bad now, but the 5 year chart looks better. But either way I'm happy sticking with my marriages through thick and thin

NICK issued a press release on Jan. 29 announcing 4Q results.

Do you have an opinion about the year over year decline in the provision for loan losses?

Interest rate hedges are rolling off on about $10 million of debt per year resulting in increased funding costs, deliquencies increasing, discounts on loan purchases decreasing, and only $10 million of availability on the bank line.

Do you see anything to suggest these negative trends are ready to turn?

thank you very much for this thread... i think I learned more about individual stock analysis through reading this thread than I did when I took my series 7 and a slew of finance classes at UCLA.

Not in the short term. BTW, they could increase their loan line any time they want, and they will do so shortly.

Also, the Jeffries report on NICK that was just released recommends "hold", essentially it says quality company, but dealing with some tough trends this year.

Up 6.5% today on no news... any thoughts DC?

Very illiquid. Could mean anything or nothing.

Any news on this Cat? Looks like the price fell alot over the summer and fall because of the credit crisis. Still looks like an even better buy now.

I got in 2 weeks ago at 7.61. Seems like such a large margin that its a lock at that price.

No change, still holding. Good business in bad part of cycle.

I've been looking at this stock lately. Any recent thoughts, DC? What is your feel about the stock's true value, in $/share terms?

Is anyone else not able to buy this through an online order? Through both etrade and td waterhouse I get a message saying to call an investment representative. I've never seen this message for anything else. Maybe I should just call, but I thought I'd see if anyone else was having similar problems or knew why this was happening.

Steve

I got the same messagge Its a pink sheet company so you need to call to buy/sell. 5 minute phone call and they put my limit order in.

Ok, thanks

Gotta love the insider buying.

I may take a small position when some cash becomes available.

Edit: Boy is this thing illiquid.