Re: Fantasy Sports Idea - Would This Work?
I want to preface this by saying I know BOOT is one of the most advanced posters in the SB forum so these questions are just a learning exercise for me.
#1 Variance in DFS is much lower than poker. People can handle the swings.
How did you determine / calculate this?
NL poker is almost solved theoretically and players have some control over decisions.
DFS has extreme daily variables like lineup changes, weather, injuries, manager decisions, odds, trends etc. and the DFS players have no control over anything related to the actual game. There is also very little in the way of tracking individual DFS players (no HUD's etc.) making decisions even tougher and variance greater.
I know a really good NL tourney player and I know a really good DFS player. If they played the same amount of tournaments, with the same field sizes and buy ins I would expect them both to cash very close to the same % of the time (and would lean towards the poker player cashing more consistently). How much % do you think the difference is?
#2 The edge a good DFS player has compared to a fish is higher than that of poker. Building a bankroll is easier.
How do you determine your edge? Where are the fish and how do you find them? Even the best players in the world can have bankroll issues (this has been proven time and time again in poker) so while beating DFS at a nice clip might be someones strong point building a bankroll may not be.
#3 People like to stake people so they can get more action and profit. Someone who knows enough about DFS would just enter more contests on their own. Did you know there is a limit as to how many contests you can enter on some of the sites in a day?
I think some people like to make money investing or sweating "games" but would rather not put the 3+ hours a day of research in it may take to become a competitive DFS player. This fills that gap. Plus some people just like to have fun/sweat games. I will often stake poker players for $50 or $100 bucks for the sole purpose of gambling, having fun, making new connections, helping out friends, logistical stuff etc. (of course I also want to make money but that is secondary and already calculated into my risk). Even just looking for new ways to invest is fun to me and looking through 100's of DFS players to find the best return would be enjoyable just like looking through a bunch of stocks would be or a bunch of peer to peer loans or something similar.
What are sites with limits? What limits do they impose?
#4 Season long events have nothing to do with daily type events. There is a negative correlation if anything.
Exactly my point and is a great reason to offer both investments as an option, making the idea even bigger and more of a potential quality service / moneymaker. Investors would of course have to make their own assessments on their horses edges in both types of contests (just like a really good NL player might not be that great of an investment in 2-7 triple draw).
Isn't the potential / current Fantasy sports market (not just DFS) much greater then poker currently thus giving an idea like this an even greater chance to succeed / find new customers. BOOT you seem to know a ton about DFS. Are you crushing the games?
Last edited by slinky1; 07-08-2012 at 02:51 PM.