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Old 05-27-2013, 03:24 AM   #91
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

Sigh. Actually that math is wrong. More like 15% risk to gain 150% of net worth.

A few Jim Beams will do that to you.
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Old 05-27-2013, 03:30 AM   #92
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Bought it at .31. Sold half at 1.00 and jumped the gun at 1.42 and sold the rest. Repeatedly kicking myself in the balls now. Had about 6k worth when I started. Happy with the great profit but wish I would have held on. Any chance it drops again and ill probably buy more.
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Old 05-27-2013, 11:24 AM   #93
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

Anyone who wonders where the buying pressure driving this stock up is coming from just has to look at this thread.
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Old 05-27-2013, 03:44 PM   #94
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

Bought Fannie and Freddie shares at .25 and .26 respectively back in October. Bought again at .35 and again .67 when it started to jump back in March.

Northeast your original thread was spot on. I'm a developer in multifamily apartments, senior housing, etc... The head of Fannie Mae's Senior housing division came and toured our three fannie financed senior living communities and I can tell you that They are in no way easing back on deals. Their underwriting procedures and book of business are as strong as they've ever been and they are continuing business as they always have been.

Back in October before I bought I asked numerous guys who have been in multifamily and single-family development for more than 20 years what they thought would happen to Fannie and Freddie.

Every Answer was: "Nothing. Can't Get Rid of them."

Then I asked them if they had ever though about buying the Stock considering it was trading for 20ish cents at the time.

Every answer was: "Nah, the stock market is too risky."

Warren Buffet said "investing is most intelligent when it is most business like."

Whether or not a Business gets quoted its total business value on a day to day basis has absolutely nothing to do with the inherent risk surrounding the company. The stock market is a tool to serve you, not to instruct you.

Fannie and Freddie, so long as they maintain strict, disciplined underwriting standards, are indestructible. Not congress, not the president can do a whole lot to change that. Its the nature of things. Network effects are too strong and their scale is to large for anyone to legitimately compete with them. It would take at least 10 years just for the government to wind them down enough for Fannie and Freddie to not be number 1 and 2 in the mortgage securitization industry. that I think is pretty conservative too. Remember that Fannie and Freddie are making more money now then they ever have and we are still in a housing climate that is far below average in terms of housing starts. Just imagine how they will perform when housing gets back to an average climate.

It is my bet that fannie and Freddie won't make the same mistakes they made in the past and the next bubble will not occur in housing. I know this because I have a guy in my office who was sitting on over 1000 single-family lots when the market crashed, and you don't dare mention the word single-family when you are around him. No matter how hot that market gets, he will never touch single-family development again. it puts a bad taste in his mouth. The economy works in such a way that while everything might average out to equilibrium, it is rarely every at equilibrium. we are always at one end of the spectrum or the other and I think it will be a long time before we over consume housing again.
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Old 05-28-2013, 09:02 AM   #95
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

3.48 and climbing. wow
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Old 05-28-2013, 09:12 AM   #96
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

Disregard that post.
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Old 05-28-2013, 09:13 AM   #97
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wil318466 View Post
in 18 minutes I'm buying 6000 shares.

f it.
I think that's a pretty fishy move without any sort of plan.

1) wait till stock goes parabolic without any sort of thought about it, out of regret

2) profit?


The absolute worst thing you can do is buy at the open. Worst.
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Old 05-28-2013, 09:17 AM   #98
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

I know. That's why I changed my post. It's funny you're looking at it. I'm sitting here with a big glass of jim beam in my hand watching it tick up pre-market (and scottrade won't let me buy it premarket wtf?) and I'm unsure what to think. It'll open up, maybe move down, maybe dip back to 2 bucks and I lose 10k, maybe go to 4.00 by end of day... I have no idea. I'm just a confused individual right now.
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Old 05-28-2013, 09:21 AM   #99
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wil318466 View Post
I know. That's why I changed my post. It's funny you're looking at it. I'm sitting here with a big glass of jim beam in my hand watching it tick up pre-market (and scottrade won't let me buy it premarket wtf?) and I'm unsure what to think. It'll open up, maybe move down, maybe dip back to 2 bucks and I lose 10k, maybe go to 4.00 by end of day... I have no idea. I'm just a confused individual right now.
What's the premarket number on it? How do you get those numbers?

OK I see it now.

Last edited by northeastbeast; 05-28-2013 at 09:29 AM. Reason: Found the answer
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Old 05-28-2013, 09:21 AM   #100
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

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Originally Posted by wil318466 View Post
I know. That's why I changed my post. It's funny you're looking at it. I'm sitting here with a big glass of jim beam in my hand watching it tick up pre-market (and scottrade won't let me buy it premarket wtf?) and I'm unsure what to think. It'll open up, maybe move down, maybe dip back to 2 bucks and I lose 10k, maybe go to 4.00 by end of day... I have no idea. I'm just a confused individual right now.
Straight up panic buying now. Someone's going to short these people and make a killing. Someone with good instincts can day trade this volatility for sure. Credit to the people who had the stones to buy at 2.92, I didn't. But this seems like pure gamble now. I'd love to see someone like Savant try to tackle the day trading on it. But I know when I'm out of my depth.
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Old 05-28-2013, 10:06 AM   #101
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Sold 1250 shares at 3.75 to get my original investment back. Now it's 5k shares of house money.
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Old 05-28-2013, 10:49 AM   #102
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

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Sold 1250 shares at 3.75 to get my original investment back. Now it's 5k shares of house money.
Nice
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Old 05-28-2013, 10:50 AM   #103
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

Ride those ****ers to 20!!
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Old 05-28-2013, 11:38 AM   #104
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

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Nice
I know. Pretty nuts. I'm just letting it go now unless it hits like $10.
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Old 05-28-2013, 02:13 PM   #105
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Re: Fannie Mae (FNMA) What's it worth?

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Originally Posted by Omaha300 View Post
It is my bet that fannie and Freddie won't make the same mistakes they made in the past and the next bubble will not occur in housing. I know this because I have a guy in my office who was sitting on over 1000 single-family lots when the market crashed, and you don't dare mention the word single-family when you are around him. No matter how hot that market gets, he will never touch single-family development again. it puts a bad taste in his mouth. The economy works in such a way that while everything might average out to equilibrium, it is rarely every at equilibrium. we are always at one end of the spectrum or the other and I think it will be a long time before we over consume housing again.
There are books written on the real estate cycle. Most of the same mistakes are made over and over again. The next bubble won't be as bad, but the one following the next one will be. No down payment loans, been there done that. Banks fail, only more. They will repeat every mistake again and again. People forget, newborns don't have the experience. Many benefit off the housing crash. Maybe not your friend, but some know it all youngster will be buying lots. One thing I have noticed different is the creation of single family REITs. If that plays out like Henry George predicted over 100 years ago, homes will concentrate into fewer and fewer hands.
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