Sold 1250 shares at 3.75 to get my original investment back. Now it's 5k shares of house money.

Nice

Ride those ****ers to 20!!

I know. Pretty nuts. I'm just letting it go now unless it hits like $10.

There are books written on the real estate cycle. Most of the same mistakes are made over and over again. The next bubble won't be as bad, but the one following the next one will be. No down payment loans, been there done that. Banks fail, only more. They will repeat every mistake again and again. People forget, newborns don't have the experience. Many benefit off the housing crash. Maybe not your friend, but some know it all youngster will be buying lots. One thing I have noticed different is the creation of single family REITs. If that plays out like Henry George predicted over 100 years ago, homes will concentrate into fewer and fewer hands.

It was always house money.

Why would MBS prices getting killed have an effect on the stock price? They have been getting killed the whole month and it's been a hockey stick shaped curve for the stock price.

It's not yield that is keeping the private issuers of mortgage debt out of the market (for the most part), it's excessive regulation and no appetite for guideline risk.

Wow, I think you cracked the code. I wonder why nobody ever thought of that.

lol, it's not obvious. It's a gross simplification to say that, "omg rates are going up, that means housing will fall and fnma will sustain huge losses".

Rates are one of many, many factors that affect housing prices. Housing prices are one of many, many factors that affect the stock price.

I'm not saying your conclusion is necessarily wrong, but the analysis is way too simple.

Risk/reward favors buying into bubbles through most of their runup. Bubbles are like singularities where the normal laws of investing break down.

FNMA is still a long way from reaching its idiot-based valuation (i.e. not understanding financial statements or the different nature of the company and just looking at figures), which is what appears to be driving this thing.

And no, I'm not going near it despite the above.

Yeah just click on the symbol and you can see the bid/ask pre-market. I don't do it very often it's just funny the one day I've done it in the last 6 months Rafiki is posting what I'm observing. Working night shift and being done at 7am gave me opportunity to check it out today (and probably the rest of the week).

Rafiki, it's always been a pure gamble. It's gone up 12x it's value in a few weeks. It's going on a long, sustained run right now. There's no denying that. I seriously doubt it'll crash back down to 1 dollar at this point, something I thought would absolutely happen a few days ago.

Will this move to 10 dollars? lol probably not, but if it went to 5-6 bucks and drifted there for a while, I wouldn't be surprised at all. It's up 37% today, it was up 41% on Friday, and 35% the day before that. If it didn't pull back after Thursday and Friday, it might not in the near future. When was the last time you saw anything move like that? (I never have).

It may stop climbing, but I don't think it'll collapse to 1-2 dollars again.

(I hope I didn't just jinx this).

What do you think an idiot based valuation would be?

He already mentioned it.

If you look purely at their latest financials, they have a net income of $8 billion for the quarter and $58 billion for the quarter after tax. $17 billion net income for the year after years of losses. For a company with a $6 billion market cap. This combined with the runup looks like solid gold if you're an idiot. You could easily believe they're coming back from the dead and the market is piling in.

The idiot based valuation would have to be $20/share.

Of course what you're seeing is a not-bad couple of quarters compared to previous disasters plus a meaningless but enormous $58 billion tax accounting change (taken as income) on their precarious balance sheet worth trillions, but who's going to drill down that far? Plenty of people buy stock on hunches or runups without knowing the first thing about it. What percentage of investors know that they still owe the government a ton and will return nothing to shareholders? What percentage know that the government gets all the money, even after the debt is eventually paid, and will continue to for a long time?

So yeah, it's got a long way to run up on the thing that's most likely driving it. Whether it will I don't know. It's quite amazing to watch.

Do you ever remember seeing anything run as quickly as this one? The last 10 trading sessions have been downright astonishing. It's one thing for something to jump 2x-3x in a few weeks, but 13x is just ridiculous.

Everytime I miss those opportunities I feel really sad(1 Year ago I wanted to buy bitcoins for like 2$, already opened an Account but it was kind of hustle to transfer money and mtgox looked kinda cheap so I decided last minute not to).


Guess I gotta grind it out :/

Dow futures down 90 and FNMA up .40 cents (10%) premarket.

Lol.

There are tons of them though. Tesla, Whole foods. Just sick.

Yeah it`s quite sick, in the end I had my money locked up in other Stocks which are up quite nicely so can`t complain, being resultoriented obviously.

Gratz to everyone who made quite a bit of money here

Dude can we get some comment from you here? You got in at .30 cents to start, right? What happened since then?

I know you were initially extremely happy, but unsure if you got back in. Give us some details so we can at least learn some tips from what you did/didn't do.

Yeah I did last Friday. I took my original investment and the previous profit and bought at 2.44 and 2.48 and now I am just going to hold it. It's working out pretty well so far.

For me to start losing money on the amount I started with the shares would have to drop to 1.76.

Good for you. So you made a nice chunk at .30 cents, sold out at like 1.80 or something hoping for a pullback, and then threw in the towel and bought back in at 2.44-2.48?

All in all that doesn't sound bad at all. What % increase from starting principal, if you don't mind me asking?

150 percent approx. I did not buy at .30 cents. The first purchases I made were at 74.4 and 82 cents. At that point I had 2230 shares I think.

It's complicated because I have made a total of 26 trades in the stock.(free trades). But the 150 percent number is accurate. I would have to go through the previous trades to break down exactly what I did.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...94R0YR20130528

Citigroup settles Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac lawsuit.

FNMA up 25%.