If you had to put your money in one or the other and leave it for 6 months, which would you choose?

USD, not close

EUR if you want a reason to end your life soon

Those who are sure Euro would be a terrible choice for ev should be getting rich on the currency markets soon.

Euro might be more volatile, so pick it if you like a gamble.

can someone explain why the dollar > euro? The euro is at nearly a 10 year low, while the US dollar of course has peaked.....please elaborate

Interest rates (US will go up before Europe, meaning large money flows chasing return)
Economy (US is getting stronger and stronger, Europe is still in the toilet and looks bad)
Safety (Further global issues, such as commodities falling apart, cause flight to safety)

edited to add: QE (It looks like Europe is going to do more yet, whereas the US is done)

USD

It's not so much that's there tremendous EV. It's that:

- Euro is high risk, wrong side of the EV equation
- USD is low risk, right side of the EV equation

What that EV number is I don't know, but the above isn't really up for debate. Have a read of this Bloomberg article, for example, about what's to come in Europe. Compare this with the end of QE in the US and a booming economy and rising rates. Are you really going argue the USD is a worse buy in those conditions? On what possible grounds?

As for playing currencies, you can do very well if you wait for the big setups. Look at USD.JPY after the massive QE announcement.

Look at Australia as mining peaked. AUD.USD was free money. The initial appreciation was driven by massive mining investment flows, an unusually stable and strong economy after the GFC, and by far the highest interest rates in the developed world, artificially raised the AUD 1.1 above the USD at one point, where the historical average is 0.70. That was a sure play. You were guaranteed 30+% if you could hold for years, as all of those things were temporary (US interest rates were eventually going to match Australia, massive mining investment flows driven by a commodity bubble were eventually going to peak and reverse, the US economy was eventually going to match Australia's rate of growth).

This certainty is one of the reasons I started trading US stocks. There was a 30+% handicap for free.

So you can certainly make excellent money trading currency flows on large time frames where there are definite trends that *have* to happen. You might get a few opportunities a decade though; currency trading is a fool's game, usually.

USD.EUR isn't one of those great opportunties, but the smart money is betting on USD, and it's not close.

USD.. EURO already lose MOMENTUM. Next week FED interest rate decisions will be announced. If September hike, then that could be very bullish for USD.

Now is the time to buy that home in France.

Was happy to see dollar so strong, as an online poker player in europe, but not too happy to see my rent going up 15 percent. Some Mediterranean countries had or have problems, eg. paying better salaries, likely meaning printing too much money. At the same time the usa economy has been doing well. Not an expert, just what i read and think. The eu or euro is now way more aware of not to allow that to happen again, but a lot of money went down the toilet. But that cant be considered as something that will last, unfortunately, i suppose.

US economy is not that great if an increase from 0.25 to 0.5 is such a big dilemma.

As far as safe haven currencies ....

Swiss franc > Norwegian krone > USD

Euro, most of the news listened in this thread is old news. Historically after the first rate hike, the dollar drops. This time might even be more pronounced as the fed has been stringing us along for so long. The deficits are still higher than in the EC. Since 2010 U.S. money supply had grown by about 44% and Euro by 22%. Since 2010, USD has risen from .69 to .89 dollars per Euro. Finally, most people on this list are bullish USD, the market hurts the most people possible. .80 is possible. But remember, unless leverage you always lose in the long run in currency trades as both currencies are going to zero in real terms in the long run.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...eal-on-liftoff
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/...irst-rate-hike

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economi...-dfct-table-en

Norway Krone is pegged to the Euro I believe.

The Fed will not hike rates this Sep. My guess is Mar 2016 or later.

I don't think the Krone is pegged to the EUR.

The Krone was much better before oil got cut in half.

There are no safe haven currencies.

Except gold, which is not a currency.

If you want to own currency in size that matters, you need diversify and, if you can, actively manage your positions.

1. Europe is under siege.

2. The USD is unique in all the world.
-world reserve currency status
-petro dollar
-USD denominated debt
-largest capital markets in the world
-largest debt markets in the world

3. LIQUIDITY

usd, straight up guess though.

If your opinion is that you have secret knowledge that no one else knows, then you're wrong.

If your opinion is that something that everyone knows is going to make you a profit going forward, then you're wrong.

That's not how markets work.

Did I somehow (secretly?) indicate that the knowledge I posted was secret?

I am confused, what lead you to quote my post and then stab your keyboard in the exact sequence you must have to produce the above series of characters?

But also, while I am at it. You are right. All market participants have equal access to information.

And all market participants have an equal understanding of what to do with that information.

...

99% sure it floats.

In theory this makes sense, but like many theories, it falls apart in the real world. What matters is the flow of money, and speculators don't control that. They can, however, ride it.

Look at USD.JPY when Japan's very large stimulus started a couple of years ago. Everyone here believed that JPY would depreciate relative to USD. It was obvious and inevitable. And it did.

"Why didn't the market price it in if everyone knew it was coming", you say? Because it doesn't work like that.

There are lots of highly plausible delusions like yours in the market that lots of (even smart and experienced) people believe. They simply aren't true.

Would you guys favoring the USD also put your money in USD, if you lived in Europe and expected to live there 'forever'?

This is kinda silly right? I mean you wouldn't put all your money in USD as you have expenses in EUR.

But something like 50% USD, 10% gold, 10% EUR, 30% poker BR (so IDK, more EUR?) or w.e. you do sounds reasonable.

A lot of it depends on your perspective going forward. USD has been strong amongst the currencies but all of the currencies are trending down vs real assets (obviously currencies have made a come back vs commodities and many equity markets as of late, but you are fooling yourself if you do not think things will reinflated at some point*).


*Though hopefully oil won't trade above $100 again and Elon Musk can save the world. But yeah, the political, entitlement, and other things need to be growing to function. They cannot go sideways or down. The will fail if that happens. And failure there leads to...well, trouble.