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$SBUX sexy $SBUX sexy

07-24-2015 , 07:27 AM
Since recently getting back into investing I have made some foolish errors, but one of my shining moments was buying into Starbucks ($SBUX). In my initial research I saw the commodity (coffee beans) down, the leading coffee shop in the world raising prices (again)... and the coffee addicts arent going anywere.

Then there are the numbers (short term and long term). Since 2009, Yr to Yr they have been producing nice profits for investors (there is a little trend I picked up on that I will point out later). Shorter termed numbers (3 & 6 months) it has averaged >$2 increase per month per share (3mo: $2.37; 6mo: $2.18). The trend/pattern I noticed is that they make big gains every other year (2009, 2011, 2013, & 2015) and slower/less gains in the opposite years.

I love that SBUX is continuing to expand into new markets, attempting world domination! :-)

Since I jumped in with both feet due to all the positives I read and compared, I didnt consider my end state (out strategy). Nor do I fully understand all the various ticks, tricks, or tips of how this stock behaves over time.

Questions for seasoned investors in this stock ($SBUX):
- what is your strat with this one?
- now that Im in (late), how can I capitalize?
- what range do you see this trading at in 6m & 1yr?
- what else am I missing with this beautiful beast?

Any thoughts, discussion, ideas, numbers, facts, and memes/gifs appreciated.
07-24-2015 , 02:36 PM
No love for the amature investor trying to do good?

I guess I will hijack my own thread and post my random investment thoughts, actions, and hope to get more seasoned investors to chime in.

Will post my portfolio shortly.
07-24-2015 , 02:46 PM
Since you want feedback...

What do you like about Starbucks? It's at 32 P/E for something without explosive growth possibilities (they're in so many markets now). It's run up 1000% since 2009.

I mean, to put it in perspective, SBUX has half the market cap of Coke, and Coke is the largest beverage seller in the world, and they sell to the entire world in practically every shop and restaurant.

Where exactly do you see SBUX going from here, and how? They're worth $85 billion, with no meaningful possibility of many multiple profit growth, and most of the low hanging fruit taken in terms of premium locations and extras sold.

At a first glance, everything about this screams "sell" at me, so I'm curious why you like it in spite of these very big negatives and no possibility of major multiple expansion at these levels.
07-25-2015 , 09:50 AM
There are plenty of stocks that have P/E =/> to SBUX and are still excelling in the market. (AMC, AOL, BMY, BURL, DPZ, etc--simple stock screener will show that) It's noted, but not a huge detractor. As far as explosive growth, it's not like there are going to be 10M new coffee drinkers every year... but the growth that does exist is that SBUX is building in markets that competitors (DNKN) can't reach (China, India, Africa, more in EU). The currency fluctuation (stronger dollar) will hurt their revenue on the overseas market, but with the stronger dollar it will allow them to leverage new coffee shops are a fair price in these markets. Additionally they are introducing some new tech for advance (pre) ordering their selection so customers don't have to wait in cue, etc.

Article 1

Article 2

Coke may be the largest beverage seller in the world, and available at all locations... However, SBUX doesn't have to take into account nearly the R/D, bottling/distribtution, etc that KO does. In addition to this, the commodity (coffee) is falling and giving more room for profit. The lower coffee prices and SBUX raising prices by 1% will also help increase revnue...

Article

I'm not exactly sure where they will go, but based on the research I did prior to buying in at @ $54/share I couldn't foresee any drop below this price. Based on what I mentioned above, I think there is a possibility to see the SBUX hit $70 as long as there isn't a melt down on the markets. Yes, I obv missed out buying it at a much better price--and missed some splits--but there is promise here.

My original question was for those that have traded or studied SBUX in the past... things like what makes it tick (up or down)? Is it as sensitive as AAPL or other "popular" traded stocks? Is there a better way to capitalize on SBUX then just holding long (ie. jump in before dividends and sell after earnings jumps, and repeat)? Do others those that own/studied SBUX still see value in holding long and if so, what is their forecast (I think $70+ in 12mo)? And is there anything else I missed that I should have reviewed/studied???

Pardon me, but where those you're BIG negatives?? I hope I don't have SBUX coffee in my eyes and misread your post (terrible P/E, lack of growth, not as big as KO, missed low hanging fruit, SELL/SELL/SELL). I am interested in your points and maybe I'm blinded by my own ignorance and fascination with the remaining markets they are going to enter into (recent articles linked). But you really didn't give me any solid reason to change my opinion--hence why I asked for someone that my have traded/studied this stock.
07-25-2015 , 10:47 AM
As I posted earlier, I will use this as a journal/feedback as a rookie getting back into investing. Please feel free to chime in with discussion, (educated/documented) advice, questions, pics, gifs, chatter...

Portfolio

Stocks:
AA, AAPL, BAC, ETFC, FTR, GE, NUGT (idiot, or brilliant TBD), PGN (loser stock), SBUX

on deck to buy: V, CAKE, FNMA, and KR

Real Estate:
sold 2 properties (Vegas and Montana); holding long (Germany)

Mutual Funds:
Oppernheimer Main St Growth... Will be adding another couple.

401K/IRAs/Retirement Funds:
Got 'em

Debt:
Car note and Mortgage

Income:
I won't go into great detail here, but will say 120K+

Other notes:
No children, married (dual incomes)

Goals: Looking to reduce exposure to taxes, make some $$$, and possibly retire a bit earlier than my peers.

This thread will go through my adventures (ups & downs) of trying to reach these goals thru investing and making (hopefully) smart fiscal decisions.
07-26-2015 , 03:32 PM
Hey goodluck, im following. I like the blue chip'ish part of your portfolio/watchlist. Both have AAPL & SBUX while GE & V are still om my watchlist (not really eager to buy now anyway, we're due for a correction). Not that fan of AA, a somewhat similar type investment has turned out to be my largest mistake %-wise (MT) and as a result i've added a rule to my investor-rule-list 1. Do not invest in companies with tiny margins that require high CAPEX and that are not flexible.

I like strong names and my latest additions are DE & NESN whilst eyeballing HOG.
07-26-2015 , 05:18 PM
I've been a fan of SBUX for awhile now, after reading Howard Schultz book Onward.

I've also been a fan of Berkshire (BRK.B) and think this might be a good time to take a long term position.

http://online.barrons.com/articles/b...ure-1437807148

Way more speculative stocks I like are Baidu (BIDU) and Tableau (DATA).
07-26-2015 , 05:53 PM
hey we dont want to start having bfi turning into a personal blog collection
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