I read the first half of this thread and have not caught up with the second.

No doubt there is a lot of good discussion.

OP, I will tell you the answer: You have to have exposure, but at these prices, given the amount of capital you have, you basically missed the boat.

This means buy like 1 coin. No joke, it sounds lame. It is lame (get more capital or realize value earlier). But there you have it. You have exposure and you have not done anything stupid.

AI at these prices and BTC crashes again...it could take you 5 years just to get back to even.

If we do go down scale in. Back the truck up at sub $500 USD or wherever you feel is appropriate. If we go up or sideways Dollar Cost Average your exposure for like 10% of disposable income or something.

Problem Solved (seriously).

Mind sharing the ICOs you find the most intriguing?

Upcoming: brave, Aragon, status, 0x and sadly tezos even though it's uncapped and I want to hate it.

OP,

There is a lot of good advice in this thread. Some of it is not quite applicable to you. Cryptocurrencies, not all are created equal. Some definitely have brighter futures and the industry is moving quite fast. If you want to invest you have a few options.

1) Throw a few darts across the board and hope to hit
2) Follow/tail someones advice who seems to know what they're doing/talking about
3) Avoid entirely, it's a space you're not familiar with, and yes there are what I would call **** coins out there that are going nowhere (longterm) and unless you have some technical knowledge/can sort through the bull****, it's best to avoid

I encourage you to definitely do more research for yourself before diving in with any significance.

For me personally I've been active with cryptocurrencies since late ~2013. I've been lucky enough to make significant money off of them because I was definitely right place/right time and I did a lot of research/due diligence. I personally was 100% long Bitcoin from 2013-2016 until I switched all over to Ethereum and since then have done extremely well.

As it stands, you have not yet missed the boat on Ethereum. I genuinely believe $95 will look 'cheap' in a few years and I am backing that up with significant exposure on my part so I'll definitely have egg on my face/be a lot poorer if I'm completely wrong (but that is investments in a nutshell). Is this a guarantee? Hell no. But the industry moves fast and I have strong incentives to read up on it/stay up-to-date with the latest knowledge, which I'm happy to share with anyone who is interested. I'll keep this post somewhat short, but I just want to caution you that my opinion is just one of hundreds and you should always be open-minded but skeptical what others tell you cause everyone has 2c to share and if you don't know much about different assets, such as cryptocurrencies, some people sound really smart but don't know WTF they're talking about.

I don't know what Bitcoin price is going to do. It's the most well-known cryptocurrency as everyone knows and has had first mover advantage/network effects. Both of these will erode in the coming months/years and I believe Ethereum will outperform from here on out significantly. Fundamentals can change (Albeit slowly, like if Bitcoin ever figures out their ****, which I doubt they will this could potentially be a game-changer but I think it's already almost too late) and if that happens and if somehow my beliefs change, I'd be sure to let you know/anyone else who is putting any weight into my words if I was changing my exposure. Dogecoin/Litecoin/others, none of these have any future for now. Their short/medium term anything can happen, truly, but the best way to play this is buy Eth and HOLD.

Re: ICO's. There are a lot of these. I think some are a crapshoot, and they require significant knowledge/gamble to really get a handle on. Some have potential, some will likely fail. I'd advise against these for the time being, especially for buy-and-hold cases. A lot of them seem somewhat overinflated because the whole FOMO crowd going nuts on them (Gnosis for example, and Tezos coming up..).

In your spot with 50k I would probably buy $25k of Ethereum at market price tomorrow, with plans to fire another bullet and put another $5-10k in if it drops <$70. I would only do this if you won't be waking up with sweats if half your investment evaporates overnight.. if so in that case I would only put $10k in and mentally say good-bye to it. The rest just leave indexed in the S&P500 or whatever. I'm also the kind of guy that would sleep like a baby if Eth drops 40% this next month due to trading/dumps (assuming their roadmap stays as is - in fact I would likely try to buy even more). I have higher risk tolerance than most due to my poker background, but by no means am I ******ed (for example, I have lots in the market and just leave ETF indexed because I haven't put the effort in to have an edge there/not my expertise)

Just wanted to add right now: Kraken is getting DDOs'd as we speak. This will likely cause some (short-term) downward movement. Probably a great time to get in these next few days cause it'll likely be below whatever it is right now (91ish) // speculation. If anyone here doesn't know what a DDOS attack is, it isn't serious long-term (but it will manipulate the price)/won't hurt ETH in the end. Also just fyi to anyone who's new to this, this is another reason to not ever use margin on exchanges for exactly this reason.

Eth was $40 usd for a bit there

For a second, assume we are talking about stocks. Everyone would tell you the following, 1) Throwing darts and hoping, 2) Following a knowledgeable person's advice 3) Using your own technical knowledge, are all three -EV.

But regarding cryptocurrencies this is all good advice yolo maga

Throwing darts is actually an excellent strategy for stocks. Better than indexing.

Following a knowledgeable person's advice, also an excellent strategy.

"Using your own technical knowledge"... well, I don't know what that means wrt stocks, but if it's good knowledge, of course you should use it.

don't listen to toothsayer about anything crypto related except that it's a high risk endeavour. after he was exposed to be a poser that doesn't understand the technology in the bitcoin thread he stopped posting and hasn't in over a year. at one point he said it was going to zero and when i offered to make a bet, he refused. search the bitcoin thread for his name to see how wrong he was about everything and avoid his advice here.

kazuya's post is the best one in this thread.

What the **** are you talking about? I mean, here is one my last posts in the Bitcoin thread, calling it a strong buy:
I argued forcefully against the guys shorting it.
Because he agrees with you? lol? Once thing OP is strongly advised to do is avoid the rabid fanbois.

I think your memory is off. I stopped posting in that thread because it was pointless - I was posting when it $250, bitcoin was a strong buy all the way to over $1000, but ultimately doomed, and there was nothing more to say.

Bitcoin is ultimately doomed due to protection costs, which will make it more expensive than alternatives, which will matter in the non-illegal sphere. The mining cost must always be an appreciable percentage of its market cap, or the value in owning 51% of the hardware becomes too high. That cost is well above a few percent. Thus Bitcoin will cost more than alternatives, and be less speedy and flexible than alternatives, and will ultimately fall by the wayside because of this cost and inflexibility. It will take maybe decades to go to zero, and you'll be insolvent when it does, so why the **** would I bet on whether it goes to zero? Especially since I thought it was a strong buy when I was posting? Maybe you have me confused with someone else.

Cryptos in general will do ok. Ethereum looks promising. I agree with kazuya on that.

Without putting in a long writeup I don't think you should go past 20% of what you have now.

You should be looking for ways to increase your income and if you want to aggressively invest additional savings that's a lot more palatable than betting your liferoll

I'm going to get flamed and told I'm an idiot, moron, fishstick that doesn't know the first thing about bitcoin. But this thread (and others) reminds me so much of 2006/2007 real estate. It also reminds me of the silver thread here on 2+2. (I posted something similar to this in the silver thread, got flamed to high heaven, but look how that turned out)

I wouldn't put a penny into bitcoin/others if I only had $50K and made $2K a month. That's certainly not a solid enough position to be in to be gambling. I mean, if you put $2,500 like you've thought about into bitcoin, it probably won't change your life much either way so won't be the worst decision in the world, but I'd highly recommend you don't do the 20%+ like others are mentioning.

Good luck, I hope I'm wrong, but I can think of at least 5 people that have over 50% of their networth in bitcoin/other coins, and to me it just feels like 2007 real estate all over again. Hope I'm wrong!

(side note: at least real estate/silver didn't go to zero or anywhere close to that...if you do decide to do it, the only people that made money in both markets were people who weren't afraid to take some off the table and take some profits on the way up or got in way earlier then average joe)

$50k and $2k monthly income is called a start, you keep building from there. You don't gamble and throw it all away because you don't think it is enough. Anyone can become wealthy just by making good decisions over time.

"a strong buy" after months of you getting beaten down by the non-posers like tomcollins. "a strong buy" after saying that bitcoin will not survive without an ETF (in fact, it went even higher) and calling ripple a protocol. also just completely and utterly misunderstanding security features and calling the technology fundamentally flawed because of those features:
never responding to my bet proposal:
anyway, for those still in doubt, just search for toothsayer and read through his post history in the bitcoin thread starting from january 2015. completely misunderstands the technology, gets rekt by anyone who even remotely does for 5 months, goes out by saying it's a strong buy but that it's still going to die (which may be true, but not for the reasons he stated).


because his view is informed and he isn't a poser like you who writes essays about things he knows nothing about. how am i a rabid fanboy when i said that kazuya's post was the best one? he's made no claims that are outlandish or false that would make me a fanboy if i agreed with him.

no, my memory is quite impeccable. you stopped posting because you were getting absolutely rekt by anyone who knew a thing or two about crypto. and you never came back because it started climbing. and after the ETF got disapproved the price still went way the **** up.

because you're very willing to spew bull**** about things you know nothing about but not very willing to put your money where your mouth is.

agreed.

I read through the thread and this paragraph stood out most to me because I share the same sentiments.

- still young/few responsibilities = take higher risk
- be able to mentally withstand the swings

I think at this point to really hit it big, you need to risk a lot more in proportion to the bottom floor. I actually bought ETH at 50$ roughly a bit over a month ago and at the time I was hesitant. Then I decided that I would rather lose my investment than not do it and miss out on hitting some real cash. Missing out would hurt more than losing the invested amount. Main point is I put an amount that I was comfortable losing and never seeing again, but enough that would make a difference in my life if it hit big. I am currently debating adding more ETH to my portfolio at current prices ~92-95$.

Do not "YOLO" into "% of crypto" in "portfolio". You will get rekt if you do because you dont possess sufficient understanding of the underlying tehcnology or asset that you are purchasing.

Ethereum has a lot of technical issues that no one in this thread understands. Please take the time to educate yourselves before you say


"x looks promising"


Just as Bitcoin possesses a "quadratic hash time" issue with transaction scaling-- basically that the time it takes to verify a bitcoin signatures increases for example xy^2 insofar that it will eventually become impossible for nodes to validate all the transactions in every block inside of 10 minutes.

this is a somewhat serious issue.

Ethereum possesses equal and arguably far greater technical issues today:

1- No one knows how to manage ethereum costs for executing contracts
2- as programs inside of Ethereum grow larger, ethereum costs for executing these contracts may outstrip the underlying value of the ethereum that rests in these contracts. Basically-- what happens when it costs more to run these family of contracts than there is ethereum inside of it? Thus completely nullifying the whole

"dapp"
"autonomous"
"dao"

use cases.

Thanks everyone for the advice so far What surprises me a lot is that pretty much nobody talks about the utility of 50k, the ability to make that back at my age, fact I don't have mortgage payments and kids yet etc. Not saying that this should mean all in but it looks like many don't take into account my risk profile except a few guys.

Wow. You seem really butthurt, like some guy who got his religion insulted. I encourage everyone to read through that as well. I had a read through that old thread, I do an excellent job of exposing the bull's utter irrationality and blindness to the flaws of bitcoin (security costs are far too high, transaction times too slow, it scales poorly).

I mean, this just shows how deluded you are. I argued with the shorts literally called it a strong buy at $250 (because that was the base size of the illegal economy) for a run over $1000, then "never came back" when it did exactly what I predicted? You're a weird one, bro. If there's any doubt that you're butthurt and not objective, that sentence shows it.

I explained why there's no point betting it to zero - it will take decades to get to zero (are we going to escrow for decades?), and you will be insolvent long before then, since you've obviously put most of your net worth in bitcoin. That you proposed an absurd bet just shows what a slimy poser you are.

What ability do you have to make back $50K? You your say your income is $2K/month. $50K to you is at least 5 years of savings even while living as a pauper. That's not something you just throw away.

I don't believe in large risky bets, just because you can make it back. With a little patience, you'll find spots where it does make sense to shove it in. 2009 in the stock market. $250 bitcoin two years ago. Various other spots. Whenever the next bitcoin crash happens.

If you have money you want to get it in with the best of it, where the most likely scenario is that you'll make some money even if you're wrong. Right now you're thinking of putting a decent chunk for the long term just as a highly volatile instrument is hitting long time highs. You're jumping on the bubble - which is fine if you know you're speculating - the bubble might well go higher before crashing - but hardly a value proposition to shove all your money in.

The idea that risk and value-based return are correlated is one of the great false memes of the stock market, believed by nearly everyone as a truth. Risk and return are correlated in blind gambling, not in value investing.

I guess what I'm struggling to understand is, why did bitcoin not appeal to you at $250? Or $800 a few months ago? Or < $1000 1.5 months ago when it crashed on volume for a week?

If you were truly a long term value investor, you would have seen that as an opportunity and shoved. Why are you interested at $1600 as it's breaking all time highs? Nothing has changed, and in fact, the bet has become riskier and has lower return at $1600. It seems like classic bubble thinking to me - it's going up up up so I better jump on the bandwagon because I might get rich!! I don't want to miss out!

When railbirds are coming off the sidelines to ask how much of their net worth they should put in, you know you have a bubble.

No correlation between risk and return.

I can't even.

When it was at $250 I did not invest yet. I was too scared making decisions in life for a long period of time. I started working on myself, became more efficient, working on personal development, reading about investing, started investing, do regular meditation, making the decision to harvest some and play some softer live games, etc. A part of the 50k (around 50%) is for example money from my grandparents they did give to me spread out over a long period when they were still alive (every year a bit since I was born etc).

I was hesitant to invest this for a long time because of a huge mental block. Something inside me always did not want to believe I can have success etc. I am raised in a way like ''you are smart, just study and get a safe job'' which I am trying to break free from. For example it is also no coincidence I finally reached the point I was able to diet to a reasonable bodyfat% and start doing yoga/meditation or that I started my website about my passion.

Parents always told me it was ''for when I was an adult'' but at some point I realized I had to take responsibility for my life right now since nobody else was. I knew this for a long time but I finally start acting last 8 months or so. This was actually a big thing for me in my head. It turned out it wasn't big at all when I called my mother explaining I wanted to invest. The only thing she said was ''sure go ahead money is not making much in the bank now anyways and I know you are a smart guy'' lol (her part of family made some ok money in real estate). I can give other examples about my life but basically I did grow as a person lately a lot I think.

So why did I not shove before? Because I was controlled by my small thinking paradigm. That said I want to be smart now and just blow it all away thinking I am growing as a person and taking responsibility lol. Hence why I am trying to get advice from smart people around me, and 2+2 is a part of that.

Hope this all makes sense. I realize it is a personal thing but I figure that it can help with regards to receiving good advice.

''Risk and return are correlated in blind gambling, not in value investing.''

I disagree with this. The efficient market theory (which I believe in) shows that you always get a higher ev when you are willing to take more risk. The question now therefore is: how much risk is responsible in my situation.

Just start now. Dollar cost average. Invest $500-1k per day into crypto. Just start with usd->bitcoin. Once comfortable you can venture into ethereum and other cryptos. Unless you know what you are doing, just get btc and Ether.

Go to www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader for some other ideas.

Slack channels are great for info too