Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
taking over means some kind of integration without a ban from the government holding the fiat. it's super easy for a country to just say "we're going to ban this". hard to enforce, sure, but easy to slow down adoption in emerging economies facing any pressure.
Think about the alternative of a government saying "we're going to ban this" What if a country says we're going to adopt BTC as our currency?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
i've yet to see a long term road map that's really convinced me that bitcoin can be a viable currency that's actually used to buy commonplace items from individuals and economies operating outside of the academic/cryptopumper nerd bubble.
Most new technologies start with a niche group. This exact thinking is why Bill Gates/Steve Jobs were able to capitalize on the PC market instead of IBM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
meanwhile, all it takes is a consortium of the biggest companies in the world to say "we're putting resources behind making this particular currency work as the global crypto that unites all consumers" and bang, suddenly countries with bad fiat have an incentive to invite a particular crypto because the inference is an improvement in trade/business relations with the companies that sponsor the coin.
i don't see any crypto overcoming these barriers on a 10 year timeline, you need drastic black swans and more fiats legit crumbling for integration to make the proper strides. whereas 50 years those kind of barriers are just about guaranteed to get broken in emerging economies, I think.
The black swan event could be a government/country adopting bitcoin on a wide scale. If Venezuela or whatever country of your choosing's currency collapses and people look for an alternative currency to adopt, bitcoin may be a legitimate choice. It's no where near scalable enough right now, but 5 years from now sure it would be possible.