Quote:
Originally Posted by bucktotal
imo, gavin is doing a pretty good job facilitating this discussion. he got it going and its certainly happening. i dont see the coup angle...
anyway, another good discussion on various ideas/options...
https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/pos...htning-network
rusty russell was just hired by blockstream to work on the lightning network, so that is pretty interesting.
Gavin has decided he will ignore the reasoning of the other core developers and do his own thing. Certainly, he seems committed. Perhaps he is playing chicken and thinks the rest will join him, or enough consensus will move, or perhaps he doesn't care and will just split it. It absolutely is a coup. He is intentionally destroying consensus when even core developers disagree. It's a very dangerous path. There will be a tremendous amount of money won or lost on this, I'm just trying to figure out the right angle.
Assuming some miners decide to go for the big blocks, it comes down to a lot of things. The money invested will decide what is more valuable, not anything else. What do people prefer to hold? People can hold both coins, but can divest of one or the other fairly easily.
1) Bigger blocks may potentially "open up" Bitcoin where adoption hampered, causing a rise in value in BTCXT. TO THE MOON! I have a lot of problems with this view. Bitcoin's value proposition is not being able to send a nickel to someone for a penny. Bitcoin's value proposition is in decentralization and sound money. Centralized solutions will always crush Bitcoin in the long run in terms of cost. I do see a lot of buying before the fork possible where people think "THIS IS WHAT WE NEED!! IT'S GOING TO THE MOON, THEREFORE I BUY NOW!" I'd expect a bubble here and trying to time it could be interesting.
2) A serious schism occurs. When there is chaos, expect a lack of investment and a lot of dumping. People won't know what to buy, so they won't buy anything. Price of both chains combined will drop.
3) Lot of the ownership of coins is from old-guard types who got into Bitcoin for political reasons. They'll now be holders of two kinds of coins. If they strongly prefer old coins, but the incoming market wants the new ones, so if they stick to what they believe, they'll dump new coins for old ones and increase holdings tremendously. Lock for the core devs, the Blockstream folks to follow this path.
4) Miners will probably straddle both forks based on difficulty and price of each fork. The difficulty will be proportional to value, and switching chains will be trivially easy.
I'm thinking my play is to sell immediately before a date of the fork, or possibly wait until the fork and I can split coins. Sell old coins and prepare to buy the old coins back for cheaper, then when the price of new coins rise a lot due to the dumb masses, sell.
Lightning network definitely is one approach. Too bad they'll take away a major profit incentive for it, and it will take a lot longer.