Icy, please answer my question regarding correlation of difficulty and price and the latest price-development.

You can't just type *any*thing and hope we won't notice that it doesnt have much to do with the question...

If you understand the statistics I posted and invest at least $1K I don't consider that marginal at all, I also guess that depends on the value of a dollar to you.

I'm not sure what your confused on about the profit.

For example if a miner generates 50 coins, after electricity costs, we split that 50/50 monthly, or weekly it really doesn't matter to me, for the life of Bitcoin and/or the machine.

I'm not going to keep posting public information, frankly your annoying the **** out of me with your stupidity.

Something inflating at a lower rate does not raise the value by itself. This is only true if new buyers are coming in at the same rate. Someone still needs to buy all those coins (or the economy absorbs them). That LOWERS the value. Every coin that is mined makes everyone who has bitcoins poorer. It's being offset right now since people who don't have Bitcoins want them and will pay for them.

Also, they are not created at the same rate. Right now 500 are created every hour. After the next difficulty change, they will be created at 300/hr. That's a huge drop.

This does not follow. Just because you cannot create any more of something does not mean the value will go up. Take art, for example. You cannot create any more paintings by deceased artists. But sometimes those artists go out of style, and the value drops. Bitcoin will rise in value if more people want Bitcoins than what are created. They will drop in value if no one wants them.

What does "ratio of all other currency" even mean? There are also different levels of success. It could be the de facto black market currency. It could also be a world reserve currency. Both would be extremely successful. But one would make the value much more than the other.

No, you cannot assume this. For example, there 130,000 tons (3.8 billion ounces) of Gold Bullion above ground. There are $9 trillion M2. This does not mean that the Gold is worth $2368/oz. To take an even worse example- there are 72 million dogs in the US. This does not mean that dogs are more valuable than Gold by a factor of 52. People value Gold more than dogs. People value dollars more than Bitcoins.

Most people consider profit to mean actual profit, not marginal profit. There's a reason why I'm asking to clarify it, since you have a completely different definition.

If I buy into a poker tournament for $10,000, win $12,000 prize and tip the dealer $1,000, I do not profit $11,000. My profit is $1000.

ok, bye.
thank you for trolling this thread.

This leaves me to go back a little bit on what I posted about the cost and profit.

800W of power
1200 mh/sec
$976.97 after shipping

At current difficulty/sell rate for bitcoins you would make..
per Day ฿2.13 $42.44
per Week ฿15.51 $309.47
per Month ฿64.67 $1,290.21
http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

That being said, we would both get around $500+/month after elect costs.

Even assuming difficulty changes goes up, the price has gone up with it, and difficulty doesn't always go up or at a rapid rate. It has its slow points and fast points.

That being said its pretty safe to assume you will break even in just two months, then after that you'll keep making money, plus 100% or 90% of the profits for more rigs. You could give me $2000 to make 40% on one rig, and 90% profit on the other, and so on with more rigs.

Your the one trolling, most common Bitcoin websites will tell you a forcast. I don't need to keep spoon feeding you.

Why do you keep using this calculator? It is totally useless in the way you are using it.

This is getting ridiculous.

Please calculate with that forecast and post your results. Please please.

Why are you using today's difficulty? It will be up to 840K before you even get the rig to your house. In 2 weeks after that, it will be over a million.


I was curious, so I was reevaluating when I bought coins. I bought $450 worth originally on 5/19. Say I bought $1000 worth instead. I paid around $7.05/coin. So I would have gotten 142 coins.

Now instead, I could have bought a rig. Based on the numbers provided above, I would have 83 bitcoins today. The rig would still be useful going forward, so I would expect to get another 60 coins. That's assuming 35% growth (which frankly might be too optimistic). So it's a wash on building the machine. Except I'd also have to pay $400 in electricity costs as well. And spend time maintaining it. I'd have to pay for air conditioning to keep my house cool from the heat generated. So I come out much worse off.

That's why if you are counting on prices going up, just buy the damn coins. Even when you don't need to pay someone to make the rigs! When you do, it's an even worse deal.

It is starting to really ****ing annoying me now I already explained my use of this calculator MANY times and why its JUST AS USEFUL OR BETTER THAN USING SPREADSHEETS. I'll quote again.




Please allow me to 'sperg out' for a moment. But people need to understand this.


Difficulty and $/BTC are inexorably linked.



This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the full image. The original image is sized 830x803.


Price leads Difficulty, always. Difficulty drives price, never. This relationship has remained constant during all recored history, and it will take a very fundamental change in this relationship for this ever to be any different.

It is very important to understand this relationship if you hope to ever make sense of change in Difficulty and what causes it.

The correlation coefficient of this relationship is .977, which means it is very robust. (a value of 1 would mean it is an exact match)

The moving average is a simple 12 week moving average of price, which always lags the current price. This correlation can be slightly enhanced by applying a special weighting to this moving average. It is not useful for projecting beyond the next increase in Difficulty unless you know what is going to happen to price. However, if you are trying to produce a business plan with contingencies relating to $/BTC and Difficulty you just might find this information useful.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Again, and I cannot stress this enough, difficulty and pricing is not set in stone. That makes using a calculator like the one I'm using just as useful as using a damn spreadsheet trying to predict the future.

So this correlation means that the difficulty will drop with the next difficulty change, because the price also dropped? That's what you are saying with this graph.
I want to bet against that.

Icy, when you keep saying stuff and EVERYONE doesn't understand you, maybe the problem isn't the listener.

Also, LOL @ "predicting the future with models is just as accurate as something that is 100% wrong".

If price drops to $0.01 per bitcoin, people stop mining, difficulty goes down, which has happened before.

Just tell me what you think, the next difficulty will be.

TC, I've had everyone disagree with me and be right before

Icy-, the relationship is not as simple as you make it out to be. The difficulty is clearly too low right now and mining is rushing to catch up. This is why difficulty won't decrease this time despite the price being down.

The question is how quickly will mining catch up and how far exactly will it catch up before it reaches some semblance of equilibrium. These sorts of things can actually be projected with some semblance of accuracy. If you read between your posts and people arguing with you you'll even find some of it happening in this thread.

ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE FUTURE!

Ok, done pwning Icy for now, off to bed.

I'm not saying disagree, but saying he is really, really, bad at explaining concepts clearly.

If you say something and EVERYONE thinks you said something different than what you meant, then it's probably because you are a poor communicator and not because everyone is a bad listener.

I tilted away 1.5k because of this stupid discussion.
Sleep well.

You asking this question means you miss the point, but here I'll spoon feed you more data that can be googled.

Current Blocks: 130654 | Current Difficulty: 567358.22457067 | Next Difficulty At Block: 131039 | Next Difficulty In: 385 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 1 day, 15 hours, 34 minutes, and 10 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 843062.28228265

I never said it was simple, and I never said anything was set in stone. These guys are asking for hard facts of the future.

Great, you found it.
Now: do you see any flaws in your logic?

This feels like a level, can you really be that stupid?