magic the gathering exchange are currently doing a reddit AMA

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comm...re_mt_gox_ama/

Still waiting on the wires obv, but bitstamp already verified my account. Insanely fast considering I requested verification about 15 hours ago. I requested mtgox verification a week ago and I'm still 500th in the queue.

It was pretty crazy watching bitcoinity this morning while waiting for the carpool and just seeing it crash through everyone trying to buy at 75. Thousands of orders going through (esp 75, 73, 70, 65) and just kept on dropping to 55.

Seems to be steadied at around 70 right now for the last half hour or so, but who knows with this thing.

Bitcoin is completely fine. Up a ton even after the Crypus stuff and has gotten tons of attention lately (any attention is good attention).

Don't let the idiots in the thread and the last few weeks distract you. A new currency SHOULD be highly volatile as it gets mainstream attention. If bitcoin this morning had dropped to like $3 bitcoin could have proved to not be robust, but it didn't. its still up massively.

It was trading at these levels just 3 weeks ago. Ridiculous to hear people call bitcoin a "spectacular failure" (as they did on CNN) or wherever else people are saying this sucks. A correction was necessary, but it definitely didn't need to happen with all the drama from mt gox.

My prediction at the start of the crash looks pretty reasonable. Somehow both of my scenarios happened, even though I thought they were mutually exclusive at the time If anyone is curious, I am currently getting any money I can access back onto exchanges to buy.

March 7:


April 10:

Goldman reduced their 52-week target for Bitcoin from 2500 to 90 this morning, citing changing market conditions. This probably explains the drop today.

Don't say we didn't warn you. Still above where it was within months ago, but don't expect the bleeding to stop. The dumb money is no longer going to be entering in mass. That's not the worst thing. Unless you were just trying to get rich quick. This will shake out the clowns from those in for the long haul.

link?

Actually, something like that is exactly what happens to cause this kind of drop. There needs to be a catalyst for all the bubble investors (those who go into it presuming it's a bubble and they need to time an exit) to begin the exit.

Seriously, the 2nd worst part of this whole thing is having to listen to the dumbest people on earth talk about it and gloat as if Bitcoin was wiped out.

That's the worst part

It flashed across my Bloomberg terminal; I don't have a link sorry.

If Bitcoin continues, "dumb" money that leaves will be back. It's the nature of this type of system. People using it and not over-invested carry on and function as always except with a better ecosystem and broader acceptance.

VC interest doesn't disappear with price movement.

Another critique of the worry about volatility:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freee...itcoin_economy

np

Of course they will be back at some point. But I think in the short term, we won't see much interest from the "get rich quick" types. VC interest sees the longer term potential and is huge. The only trouble with major investments in BTC is if you do anything that makes BTC moderately successful, holders of BTC gain far more than you might, so you end up buying a lot of BTC in conjunction with the infrastructure you are putting in place. But you are better off free-riding and hoping someone else does that infrastructure and just hold BTC.

So TomCollins is Bitcoin a bubble right now?

i don't know if it can ever go too low though. after having seen it hit $260, how could the gamboolers resist plunging back in if they see it at $5?

Bloomberg had a segment on bitcoin last night that was 15-20 minutes long and quite good. The information was far more accurate than the bull**** that's been on CNBC.

I would call it slightly overpriced right now, but getting closer to within reason, depending on what people who know more than me (e.g. what serious investors are doing) have to say about it.

I'm looking for a target in the $40-50 range in the short term barring any kind of major announcement.

But you've been calling it a bubble since well before this price. Have you adjusted the fair value IYO then?

Fair value changes with time and news and information. There can be a bubble 2 years ago at 30, but a fair price now at 30. I think the mania is gone now. But you have a lot of deniers that will hold on waiting for it to get back to 150 or whatever their original investment was, and eventually give up. Few new buyers will be entering to make a quick buck, and those who are selling regularly (miners, merchants) will keep the price pushing down.

Current value neglecting the future certainly is much less than 40, and a huge portion of it is future potential. I have become increasingly more bullish on long term potential and less worried about competitors, so that has increased a lot of the long term prospects. That will raise the current value.

Then again, there could be some major entrance in the market from some big players that I'm not aware of that will raise the current price beyond my expectations.

All these arguments that volatility meaning it cant be a currency are so tilting. Its almost possible to have such a unique idea not be high volatile at first.

In these articles its almost like they purposely aren't mentioning that it was created just 4 years ago and this is expected. But its probably more likely these writers are just too dumb to understand this.

The thing has gone up in a straight line, charts are not going to help you.

Price discovery seems to have settled in the mid-70s, hopefully we see some stabilization here in order to continue to grow out Bitcoin.

In a bit of good news, the Libertarian Party has started accepting Bitcoins for donations, which is an important first step for long-term acceptance. A major political party accepting Bitcoins is nothing but good news. There is also a start-up that has caught my interest which is seeking Bitcoin donations in order to build a Bitcoin blimp which will fly over major US cities. Seems like it might be a good investment to buy Bitcoins right before the blimp sets sail because new money coming in will probably be big.