August 2012 Trading thread - Page 9

savant111 · 08-08-2012, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by allstarrt

CMG is gonna get hard with commodity prices from the drought prices of corn went up something like 80% or something so far this year. CMG would be great if it weren't for macro events

CMG is far from dead IMO. Anticipated margin squeezes are somewhat baked in the price already. It may be damaged in the short term, sooner or later it'll be back.

Again not recommending anyone buy it. My point was more don't chase PCLN the day after it pooped the bed, takes a while for the sheets to get cleaned. CMG has had some time to digest...and is a better quick rally trade than PCLN. (again I wouldn't buy either).

savant111 · 08-08-2012, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shuffle

Completed inverse H&S target yesterday from June 4th low.

Old news IMO.

The measured move was estimated to be between 1390-1410. Yeah it hit that doesn't mean we are going to insta-roll back over.

savant111 · 08-08-2012, 04:01 PM

Holding Spy TWM overnights. Really looking for a pullback to reposition long though.

savant111 · 08-08-2012, 04:35 PM

Cramer tweeted he's doing a piece on CELG tonight. Going to be pissed if I get priced out of this one too.

NajdorfDefense · 08-08-2012, 05:31 PM

My worst day of the year, ah well, hot streak had to end sometime. Maybe pick up more PCLN later this week. Maybe.

Morishita System · 08-08-2012, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

My worst day of the year, ah well, hot streak had to end sometime. Maybe pick up more PCLN later this week. Maybe.

BBY and HPQ short also not looking so hot

....lucky that I was skeptical about the latter.

OTOH, tomorrow looks to be interesting for DNB.

Shuffle · 08-08-2012, 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by savant111

Old news IMO.

The measured move was estimated to be between 1390-1410. Yeah it hit that doesn't mean we are going to insta-roll back over.

It can't be old news, since we just hit the targets this week.

Also, short interest in the QQQ's is lowest since 2000, short interest in SPY lowest since October 2007 ATH.

Small caps, transports, etc. all underperforming.

--------

We're looking at a 1987 type event here, IMO. Most of you in this thread will call me an idiot, but wait and see. Top out or near top in August, crash, crash, crash by October. It will come and go very suddenly, it will be hard to get an entry to short and long stops will probably be gapped over night after night. Best way to screw everyone possible.

The real vampire squid is the Fed and its primary dealers ... whatever they say, their goal is to monetize the U.S. debt and they cannot do that unless the environment is dis-inflationary. They want to print --- they MUST print. They absolutely need a deflationary environment in order for that to happen ... and they will make sure it happens, believe me.

cky23k · 08-08-2012, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by krmont22

I short things a lot, but they often can not come up with even 100 shares of things half the time. I also got an email the other day about a position I was short 300 shares, and they said they no longer had the shares to borrow and asked me to close it out within 24 hours or they would do it for me.

Get an account with Interactive Brokers. I was experiencing the same issues you have with TD Ameritrade. I think most of the big brokers share one clearing house, making it highly competitive for borrowing shares.

To put it in perspective, Interactive Brokers has 8.3 million shares of AMZN available to short right now. 99% of the stocks you want to short, they'll have plenty of shares available for you.

http://individuals.interactivebroker...entity=llc&ln=

Their margin rates are excellent, their online site sucks (downloadable software is OK), the margin limits are so-so and they'll instant liquidate you if you get a margin call. Besides that they're good.

DeezNuts · 08-08-2012, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

OTOH, tomorrow looks to be interesting for DNB.

If current AH holds up and dribbles into tomorrow, it should be more than interesting.

Either way, nice call!

Edit: n/m, looking at some crap Yahoo AH quote. Sry.

Shuffle · 08-08-2012, 07:25 PM

We've also overthrown the 2 month channel on SPX ... shouldn't volume and price be accelerating on a breakout?

savant111 · 08-08-2012, 08:18 PM

Shuffle, I'd call this more of a tradable rally than a breakout. As long as market pulls back a little, This rally has has some legs. Volume in August tend to be lighter.

People were calling 1390-1410 since the right shoulder broke back in June or whatever so id say that's pretty old news and it was slow enough that I don't see a huge reversal in the short term. Also there is a solid floor put in at 1320. Going to take a real global cluster f to get us below.

As far as Armageddon Crash you predicted back in May/June. You didn't have it then and you still don't have it now. Certainly fall through 2013 has the potential to be bad, but no one has a crystal ball telling us immediate crash is on the horizon. Certainly not by October.

Shuffle · 08-08-2012, 08:29 PM

Savant, if you're saying it's old news that you expected it, ok I get you. I was just saying "completing the target" wasn't old news since it just happened this week.

As for my call, it's the same one. I said it would come late this year, we're not there yet, but very close now.

tastychicken2 · 08-08-2012, 09:22 PM

I don't know what counts as a call for shuffle since he seems to be buying puts every other month anyways

Shuffle · 08-08-2012, 09:45 PM

I've only made 1 trade:
August, October, and December deeeeeep OTM SPY puts.

The August ones will expire worthless next week, but they were always the shot in the dark. I'm very confident the December ones will make a mint. October could go either way, depends on if we get an '08 or '87? Either way, that's why I bought the December ones.

NajdorfDefense · 08-08-2012, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mori****a System

BBY and HPQ short also not looking so hot

....lucky that I was skeptical about the latter.

OTOH, tomorrow looks to be interesting for DNB.

Yeah, I covered HPQ today solely to re-short later. Still way up on RIM, NOK, NOG, LULU, et al.

I think the whole market is headed up so I increased net exposure and reduced shorts today. Any good news from EU would rocket this to 15-1600 on the SPX imo. I mean, my shorts are a much smaller % of my net than my longs, but why stand in front of the train?

Looking harder at GPOR, however, this is definitely a scammy stock with a scam bank pump N dumping it with scam insider dealings going on.
It's a real company, but much of the 'value' is coming from promotional hype, self-dealing, and today's short covering [obvs]. This should go to $10-15 sooner or later.

CapEx has been running like 2.5x NI, they just keep issuing hundreds of millions of stock, 300m+ last year for a firm that had a $1bn mkt cap last month. You can't make $25m/Q and spend $55m/Q forever...esp with a depleting asset. YMMV.

* NOG is very similar story to GPOR. Promotional, self-dealing mgmt. Made $47m last two years spent $530m. $1bn mkt cap, issued $350m stock past couple years. Stink, stank, stunk.
See the history of ATPG for more details - dilution, leverage, poor mgmt, overpromise and underdeliver, hyping promoters, wild claims of 'huge' finds, et al.