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Old 08-01-2012, 10:21 AM   #1
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August 2012 Trading thread

Beause it's August and stuff.

Trying something new this month:

Piggy-backing cky23 and ND because they don't know how to lose money.


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Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense
recent trades: Added GOOG, MRVL on Monday. Shorted HPQ.
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Originally Posted by NajdorDefense
1) DNB sucks. That's all you need to know.

2) Shorted LNKD today. Perfect TA-setup afaic. Breakdowns form 110-100 work like 150% of the time in the tech space it seems. [from 1999- 20??]
Going to also try and fade a couple of guys in here as well (no offense broz). Results on the 30th.
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Old 08-01-2012, 10:35 AM   #2
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Some very weird things happening this morning. some algorithms apparently went haywire and traded a bunch of random stocks places they should not have been. speculation is it's related to knight capital.

Brk.b
Afl
Mcp
Ree
gme
Jnpr
Lvlt

Etc.

Hope nobody had stop orders out there, you're not gonna like the prices you got.
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Old 08-01-2012, 10:48 AM   #3
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

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Originally Posted by EmptyThaClip View Post
Beause it's August and stuff.

Going to also try and fade a couple of guys in here as well (no offense broz). Results on the 30th.
Good luck.

Bought a full position in MRVL with an intention to hold until it goes beyond the Graham value.

Bought 1u worth of puts on LNKD because I'm a degen. Here's hoping for a GMCR-like epic fail.
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Old 08-01-2012, 01:06 PM   #4
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

Let me know what you are going to do with your DNB puts, I was able to get the Aug $75s @ 1.2 yesterday on that last spike before the close. Quite nice today.
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Old 08-01-2012, 01:10 PM   #5
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

I was going to hold through earnings, but if it reverts back to $70 before the earnings date (as it was before the news about selling the company), then I dunno.
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Old 08-01-2012, 01:14 PM   #6
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

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Good luck.

Bought a full position in MRVL with an intention to hold until it goes beyond the Graham value.

Bought 1u worth of puts on LNKD because I'm a degen. Here's hoping for a GMCR-like epic fail.
what do you think the graham value of mrvl is?
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Old 08-01-2012, 01:28 PM   #7
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

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what do you think the graham value of mrvl is?
Including goodwill, it's $13.44.

If you want to assume goodwill is worthless (which is rather unrealistic for a company like MRVL), then it's $9.08, so your downside is pretty good from the current price.
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Old 08-01-2012, 01:41 PM   #8
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

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Including goodwill, it's $13.44.

If you want to assume goodwill is worthless (which is rather unrealistic for a company like MRVL), then it's $9.08, so your downside is pretty good from the current price.
Um, Benjamin Graham would have never assigned any value whatsoever to goodwill or any other intangible asset.
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Old 08-01-2012, 03:46 PM   #9
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

Looking at NFLX's balance sheet and their off-balance sheet streaming content obligations and I just don't see how they can afford to keep going without taking on more debt or issuing more shares sometime in the next 12 months. Shorted some more shares today.
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Old 08-01-2012, 05:49 PM   #10
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

LNKD -- Down 7% Open-- Close of today.

That's like 8 quintillion % CAGR. You're welcome.
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Old 08-01-2012, 05:55 PM   #11
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

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Um, Benjamin Graham would have never assigned any value whatsoever to goodwill or any other intangible asset.
O RLY?

Graham did however acknowledge ... intangibles were just as much an asset as tangibles, assuming of course that a proper value could be determined. They could, in some situations, even be superior assets.

‘Earnings based on these intangibles [e.g. goodwill] may be even less vulnerable to competition than those which require only a cash investment in productive facilities.

'Furthermore, when conditions are favorable, the enterprise with the relatively small capital investment is likely to show a more rapid rate of growth.

Ordinarily it can expand its sales and profits at slight expense and therefore more rapidly and profitably for its stockholders than a business requiring a large plant investment per dollar of sales." ~ B. Graham

To think that Graham would have assigned no value to the brand of Coca-Cola boggles the mind.

Using an analogy, one of the favorite examples of Warren Buffett, take two separate companies. Company A has a net worth of $100,000, $40,000 of which is net tangible assets and $60,000 of which is intangible (brand name, goodwill, patents etc). Company B has the same net worth but $90,000 its assets are tangible. Each company earns $10,000 a year.

So Company A is earning $10,000 from tangible assets of $40,000 and Company B is earning $10,000 from tangible assets of $90,000.

If both companies wanted to double earnings, they might have to double their investment in tangible assets. For Company A to do this, it would have to spend $40,000 to add $10,000 of earnings. For Company B to do this, it would have to spend another $90,000 to add $10,000 to earnings.

All other things being equal, Company A would have better future prospects of increase in real earnings than Company B. [Cf. Coke, Coach, LVMH, et al]
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Old 08-01-2012, 06:16 PM   #12
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

I'm trying out a new trading strategy I developed this week. If all goes well I'll start posting trades soon.

This new approach is more robust and should yield higher returns in a shorter amount of time... I hope. I've taken two short trades yesterday both down ~3% today, lets see how this plays out.
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Old 08-01-2012, 09:54 PM   #13
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

I'm new to technical analysis and I have been looking to get into Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) at a good entry point in hopes of a run-up prior to their Sept. 9th PDUFA date. Their drug combats chronic constipation and irritable bowel syndrome.

I am a total newbie concerning chart analysis. Anybody want to take a stab at what a good entry point would be? I was estimating a range in the higher $11's, like $11.85 to $12.00
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Old 08-01-2012, 11:27 PM   #14
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

Hey guys,

Just getting caught up on the last three days of trading. Some big market moving news coming out next two days so I"ll likely wait for the jobs report to come out Friday before making a move. May take 100% cash position into the weekend too.

A few stocks setting up for breakouts long:

SWHC (Smith and Wesson) is a stock we never talk about. Apparently there is a bull market going on in guns right now. Nice looking chart here...likely heading higher

KORS, CELG, AAPL, HD, LTD are all trying to set up for higher prices. None are ready yet, but worth watching.

PNRA is starting to pull into support levels. It has a decent chance to reverse to the upside next week.
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Old 08-02-2012, 12:19 AM   #15
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Re: August 2012 Trading thread

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Originally Posted by RedEyedTroll View Post
I'm new to technical analysis and I have been looking to get into Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) at a good entry point in hopes of a run-up prior to their Sept. 9th PDUFA date. Their drug combats chronic constipation and irritable bowel syndrome.

I am a total newbie concerning chart analysis. Anybody want to take a stab at what a good entry point would be? I was estimating a range in the higher $11's, like $11.85 to $12.00
Here it's starting to break down and the risk it heads lower is significant. Even if it rallies it may find resistance at around $13 then make a new low

Rather than trying to catch the bottom at a support area for a reversal trade, I would buy it if it broke $13.50 on volume and try to catch it for a breakout.

Look at the daily chart from June 13th-15th. Im recommending you look for something that looks similar to that with comparable volume for an entry.
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