It all looks good until you get to the June guidance.

Shot their wad on dividends and buybacks, and still came back to barely up in aftermarket. June guidance really does look dismal when you combine lower than expected revenue and margins.

did you think a company with an effective P/E of ~6 would maintain the same level of profits forever?

I can post my chart tomorrow, I'm about to head out, but I'm still super bullish apple. I think the bottom is in and any good retracement entries are great. 402 is the 61.8% of the entire swing the last few days, and if we hold that we could be higher tomorrow morning pre market and moving higher again. I'm personally hoping for a clearer entry and pattern before it starts moving.

We dropped from 700 to 300 very quickly and it will be a grind back, but today's move on earnings was in the right direction. It won't go straight up but judging from the patterns we're looking great.

Wow 398 right now. Curious how after hours trading can vary that wildly. I guess a lot of people didn't understand the underlying message in those earnings.

rafiki,

What is the underlying message in those earnings?

I think they are telling investors to be patient. They gave a 3% div, massive buyback, and reminded us that a product pipeline is in the works. They also reminded investors about their ecosystem and awesome customer loyalty numbers more than a few times.

Will people actually remain patient? I have no idea, but that was AAPL's message tonight IMO.

Agreed, think they will not and shares will remain flat/down for the next two Qs.

Pretty crazy to me that such vast sums of wealth can be transferred essentially by nothing more than people acting like petulant children. Next iPhone will be released a Q later than I wanted..... so let us shave off $40 billion+ in market cap even though the most you could have hoped the new iPhone would have produced in that Q even if it was a smashing success was around $8 billion..... and alot of that will made up for by higher sales in the Q they do release it.

That Apple really has no idea how to properly spend the cash it's got, so it's trying to make itself loved by investors in a way that never existed while Jobs was in charge. That while it's giving back big chunks to shareholders, it's basically doing so to stall, because clearly they're not really going to come out with anything remotely cool until September at the earliest (which would have been a year without any significant release). And this all during a period where their margins are dropping.

Anyway that's what I thought it felt like.

because it's super easy to find a way to "properly spend" 12 figures (on top of the ~11 figures in profit they're printing quarterly)

This is the proper way to spend the cash. Steve Jobs is the one that had no idea how to spend the massive amounts of money they are generating, which has only grown since he died, he just let it accumulate in the bank vault doing nothing and said FU to the shareholders, I am awesome so you are going to invest in Apple even if all I do with your cash is rub it on my titties. Whole point in stocks existing is to generate cash and eventually return it to shareholders. Companies, especially tech ones, usually say well let us reinvest it for you and in the long run we will generate even more cash to return to shareholders! Well when you are generating $40 billion a year, its pretty hard to argue that you need all of that to reinvest in the future. Even something like YouTube only cost $1.65 billion which is nothing for Apple and they could still do tomorrow if they wanted.

I don't disagree. But at some point you need to start doing something fairly meaningful with it, assuming your product line is fizzling.

I'm not disagreeing with you. I like owning stocks that pay me. I'm just saying that yesterday's earnings and guidance haven't inspired much confidence, and even with the moves to put money back into investor pockets, the overall mood strikes me as poor. Iphone 6 has to be huge. They've got to hit that one out of the park.

you were disagreeing with me before you realized how dumb what you were saying is.

if AAPL can merely maintain their current profits, that's a home run from an investor's perspective. if profits decline 20% and stay at that level, it's still an excellent investment. they don't need to spend $150B just because they're not growing 50% a year anymore. they need to do exactly what they're doing: return a good chunk of that money to investors. there's more than enough free cash flow to fund any new projects.

You guys simply don't understand consumer sentiment. Microsoft are a lock to destroy the iPad and Android in tablets. I'm going to make a prediction: By the end of 2014, Windows will have over 50% of the global tablet market. I'm more wary about predicting the end of this year, but I'm going to throw out 20% of global share.

Data came out today that Windows has already captured 7.5% of global market share in the last quarter, despite having zero six months ago.



This is despite:

- Not competing in the 4:3 market which makes up a big portion of consumer preference due to it being far preferable for reading, document work, aesthetics, etc.
- Not competing in the sub 9" market (50% of market)
- Having a very high price
- Having poor availability and sales channels
- Having poor brand awareness
- Having a very poor touch app ecosystem
- Having Windows 8 on them with all its frustrating usability issues
- Having only a small PC Windows 8 installation base (syncing, etc will drive tablet sales).

The first three will change entirely in the coming months, opening up 75+% of the market in which Microsoft weren't even competing. The sales are also despite the limitations of Intel chips for weight, price, portability and battery life - something that will be fixed in the coming months with majorly improved Haswell and Atom either already shipping or coming in time for holidays - for example Surface Pro with its current design would have 8 hours battery life on Haswell due to major energy improvements, compared to 3 now.

So yes, I think they're a total lock to be the dominant player in the tablet market within two years. Which is very bad news for the iPad and Apple. Flow on effects with shared apps, settings and ecosystems on PCs, tablets and Windows Phone will further drive down Apple products as the installed base gets larger and larger. Phones are a different kettle of fish and Apple have a fighting chance here with a tech breakthrough, but they're fighting uphill in a Microsoft world. PC or tablet -> phone ecosystem adoption will be a big driving force; Phone -> tablet, and phone -> PC adoption are non existent as Apple have proven (Mac shipments actually went down slightly from last year).

So I think Apple are finished as a market leading mega cap company baring a major unlikely technical breakthrough like a transparent wraparound phone. Total profit is going to decline further and further, and the $50 billion share buyback and increased dividend means their cash is going to decline too. No one should be buying Apple for a long term investment.

Shipments != Sales.

How much do you want to bet on Windows capturing 20% of the global tablet *sales* by end of 2013? 50% by end of 2014? (on the latter, I'm willing to bet pretty much any amount you want)

Also, what exactly do you consider a "Windows tablet"? I'm guessing you classify something like the Yoga as a "tablet" even though it clearly should not be.

I will bet you up to 10k that windows doesnt have 50% tablet market share by the end of 2014.

For the bet, see below. A tablet is anything with a touch screen that fully detaches from its keyboard/dock (if any) and is able to run on its own.
Not interested in a bet; Microsoft 2015 $40 calls offer far greater odds (even without success in mobile; Microsoft is very undervalued as a non Windows business software and cloud vendor).

Like I said, you guys don't understand consumer sentiment. Here's Forrester Research's yearly global information worker mobile adoption survey from February:



This is total rapeage. Despite the iPad's apps, stylishness, market presence and more, and the bad reviews and negative press around Surface and Windows 8, information workers want a Windows tablet. Note how little Android is desired despite its high adoption and large range.

And it's not a Windows fanboy thing, look at desire for iPhones vs Windows Phone (as I said, phones are a different kettle of fish).

A similar survey was done for small business owners and the numbers were about the same, I think a little more toward Apple. I haven't been able to find a large scale consumer survey.

The world loves Windows on PCs, and its not close. Tablets are basically PCs with a clean touch interface. Most of the world is yet to buy a tablet. The Windows offerings will be compelling and familiar by the end of the year.

It's not hard to see the trend here. It comes down to this:

1. Only a fraction of people prefer Apple's products and modus operandi
1. The majority of people actively dislike Android.
2. Up until recently, there was no alternative to Android on phones and tablets if you didn't want Apple phones and tablets or wanted a cheaper price point.
3. By the end of the year, Windows tablet offerings will be significantly better (in terms of both hardware and software) than Android offerings at similar price points.
4. After that point, there's no possible way for the software of either Apple or Google to catch them; they are multiple years behind and lack the business presence anyway.

I'm not sure why I'm doing you guys a favor, but there you go.

Does not compute.

Look man, I'm not going to argue that Windows Tablets will do quite well in enterprise, even possibly hitting your incredibly optimistic 50% marketshare by end of 2014 (but still incredibly unlikely given the pace at which enterprises are moving ... i doubt 50% are even on W7 let alone W8 by the end of 2014)

Too bad the consumer market will be the complete opposite.

That survey is the desire of workers, not bosses, which will be far more toward Windows. So it's not as far from consumer sentiment as you think. The iPhone numbers should make that clear.

I wish there was a pure consumer sentiment survey, but it's the only reliable survey I could find. The only other consumer sentiment survey I've come across is this, which is US based (hence strongly pro Apple) and pretty useless:



The drop was after the price announcement.

Clearly a large percentage of the population wants something other than Apple or Android, even if Microsoft didn't hit what they wanted with price or range or features with the Surface. In fact, you can see how little desire consumers have for Android, even though it's the only reasonably priced alternative (or even available at 7" size) to Apple.

Do you have any actual data to back your view? I know you're a gigantic Android fanboy but I don't understand why you think Android will be superior to Windows in the consumer mind by the end of the year. IMO it's already inferior in the consumer mind and it's simply a matter of having a range of tablets at comparable price points. Android has hurt Apple and there's good reason to think Microsoft will too, given that it overlaps more with Apple in terms of quality and reliability than with Android.

No one said anything about "consumer mind". I have no doubts that the Surface is a desirable device, that doesn't mean people will buy it (and indications show that they indeed are not).

Anyways, there is literally no way Microsoft can take 50% of the tablet market unless they decide to shoot themselves in the face and make licencing Windows completely free. If you think I'm just a "gigantic Android fanboy" now is your chance to make some easy money. I'm honestly willing to bet any amount up to $200K USD, just let me know, when, where, and how.

I'm not even talking about Surface; it priced itself out of the market, not to mention sucking on many levels. I posted that as an indication of brand loyalty and because it's the only consumer survey I can find.

If by "completely free" you mean "$30 or less" plus rebates to OEMs to spur adoption, then yes, that's precisely what they're doing. They've relaxed rules and restrictions and licensing to take over the tablet space. Microsoft are doing something similar to their famous "embrace, extend, extinguish" on tablets. If you think $30 of licensing (or even $70) is going to make a difference, you need to look at iPad sales.

I would love to, but again, the market offers far better odds with MSFT LEAPS, even with the latest 15% MSFT jump in value. I'm not going to give you a free very profitable arb opportunity.

Anyway I don't want to this into an Android vs Microsoft war, just wanted to point out that things are looking bad for Apple and their iPad with a third competitor coming in soon at all price points and a much better product than existing competitors.

Too bad this thread wasn't around two years ago. If it was you could have posted a report from the same guy that showed Windows 7 tablets going from 0 to 4.6% market share. But let's ignore that and act as if we've never seen a Windows tablet before.

I'd really like to see actual sales on those Windows units also, since those figures are purely sell-in. MS reportedly ordered ~3 million Surfaces and last I checked they were cutting sales expectations in half. Looking around at retailers' best-selling lists they don't appear to be moving that well on the consumer side at all. And how many of those Windows tablets are being shopped to the enterprise channel, which has very little effect on overall consumer adoption?

Then, while the Surface Pro came out in Feb, how many major launches did Android or Apple launch within the quarter? (Both iPads, Nexus's were all out and updated prior to Christmas).

Most importantly, what kind of hit are non-Microsoft manufacturers and vendors taking as a result of so many of them having to discount their Windows tablets?

And as far as Apple, they have 2 iOS tablets on the market. Their upside isn't a greater market share but an established position in a rapidly expanding tablet market. They'll lose share and still sell more tablets same as they did this year. Android at the moment has half the market with the small cheapy tablets counted (why they'd be excluded in the first place I have no idea).

But we don't even have the full report to look at, and neither does anybody reporting on it by the look of it. The only thing reported is that 3 million Windows tablets entered sales channels in Q1, no more or less. Not how many were purchased, not how many were purchased by consumers vs B2B, not whether they were discounted to move.

What we do know is that major vendors like Samsung, ASUS and Acer have all been publicly unhappy with the sales of their Windows tablets. We also know that all 5 sellers of RT tablets (including MS) were forced to discounts due to poor sales.

Count me in if you change your mind and want action or either of your predictions.

lol truthsayer

The entire rant is pretty ridiculous, but these stand out

Admittedly I'm not here for investing advice, but still lol

ill give you odds on a pure play of your thesis that wont be impacted by other market events that could impact msft share price.

Ruh roh truthsayer. This is all you should need to know that you've got the wrong side.