I can definitely understand 295 and everything up to 500 being a really good price to own goog but when does it become overpriced? How do you measure when or if it's overpriced?

I can definitely understand 295 and everything up to 500 being a really good price to own goog but when does it become overpriced? How do you measure when or if goog is overpriced?

think market is saying theres a 68% chance I lose if you look at the options pricing. Not sure either way now as I do think apple has made some blunders here but it might take more time than the 5 months I have before that gets reflected in results. Initially I thought I was dead when apple unequivocally when the lawsuit.


my big debate now is do I get the iphone 5 or SG3

thats was all the cool kids seem to be doing.

i played with an s3, couldn't really understand the widgets, altho to be fair, i did not try too hard. aapl stuff is much more user friendly.

The question going forward is if the idiots that shipped Maps can keep it that way.

Go with SG3. Since most are saying it's more difficult to use you'll respect yourself more by using a phone that's challenging to operate.

Can we only have one AAPL thread?

This thread is 1000x better than the other Apple thread which solely exists to berate the OP.

Thanks to Phone Booth for the analysis on the short opportunity on Apple.

The iPhone5 was the most un-innovative major product ever released by Apple and I think a clear signal that the hype is over. Apple has lost it's innovation edge and Google/Android has finally released products that are directly competitive with the iPhone which will put massive pressure on Apple's margins.

Look at Google's lineup: http://googleblog.blogspot.ca/2012/1...ree-sizes.html

The Nexus 4 is available for $299 with no contract. Sure the Apple fanboy's will continue to eat up the iPhones but the days of everyone and their dog wanting one are over.

The only way Apple can make a comeback is if they innovate again. And at this point it doesn't seem like anything's on the horizon.

I think a big question here is momentum for their app ecosystem which three of their major products are dependent on (iPhone, iPad, now iPad mini). Those are going to be their core products going forward by the look of things, with their computers doing a little bit as well.

There's a real barrier to entry with comparable Windows RT and Android devices with regards to app support. Certainly Kindle and whatever phone Amazon comes up with. On one hand, you need to sell a lot of devices to get developers to make you those apps, on the other, it's harder to sell devices with less apps in place.

These next 12-18 months are likely to spell out whether Android or (less likely) Windows are able to fill the major holes in their app ecosystems. Because if they don't, Apple is likely to run away with it. At the house we have both an iPad and N7, as well as an iphone 4s and an Android phone, and the Apple devices have so much more utility.

I agree that they're going to need new inventive products to maintain or grow at the levels we're talking about, but the more I'm screwing with these other devices I'm beginning to think that maybe Apple's lead with app content could wind up snowballing. Sort of the way Windows OS did years ago for PCs. And once a user base grows accustomed to an OS it's hard to pull them away from it.

Android's in it for sure, right now at least. From my own experience with I think that development needs to really explode soon or they're going to bleed their user base to Apple as consumers replace their Nexus's and so on.

First thing, figure out what developers don't like, and fix them immediately. Apple already has advantages out of the gate, and Android needs to tighten up hardware requirements and form factors a bit to simplify a bit. The Windows approach of supporting everything in the universe is a difficult model for phones and tablets to emulate well.

Windows already has at least one guaranteed Killer App:

Office

Android users are notoriously difficult to monetize but the user base is already much bigger than iPhones.

Unless Apple refinds Jobs' obsessive pursuit of perfection of "it just works", their walled garden won't be all that attractive going forward.

Offhand I'm not sure how well Office can translate beyond PCs/notebooks. I can see it out as far as larger hybrid devices like the Surface. I guess.

Apple is definitely a walled garden, but the thing is it's a pretty big garden. Their ecosystem is so large that a lot of end users aren't missing a thing. I was talking to a friend about her iPad2, and she was saying how it was perfect for someone like her. She's not typing a novel on it, and it has all the basic functions she needs. Her kids can do all the learning apps and games they want. Where some of the locked down stuff annoys someone like you or me, she's absolutely oblivious to it.

At the other extreme, with Android, their garden is unlimited but they need to start growing more things in it or what's the advantage? (I really hate this metaphor but you know what I mean.)

The main advantages of Android is as follows:

1. Customization on both the software *and* hardware front. Want a small phone with a physical keyboard? Want a gigantic phone like the Galaxy Note? Want a cheap and powerful device like the Nexus 4? There will almost always be an Android phone that fits your needs. On the software side, Android can be as simple as iOS or as complex as you want it.

2. Ability to install apps from other sources without having to JB/root your phone. That means you can install, say, a pokerstars/porn/etc app that Apple deems is "inappropriate" for their app store without any trouble.

3. Integration with Google products. If you are a heavy user of GMail and other Google products (like Maps), your experience on Android (particularly a stock Android device) will be way better than on an iPhone.

#3, I think, is the important point considering a lot of people will primarily use their mobile device for email + internet, and GMail and Chrome are *desktop* OS agnostic, whereas Safari is not. For example, the bookmark and history syncing between Chrome on Android and your desktop is incredibly useful.

The major advantage that Apple holds right now is in quality of hardware and apps, *particularly* for tablet devices, but considering how Apple makes the vast majority of their money on phones, the Android threat is a real one.

It will be an interesting next 1-2 years. Apple isn't going anywhere for sure, but as Android starts to grow more in developing countries and China, it will be interesting to see if developers (particularly those outside the US) start developing for Android first.

Agree with all 3 but as a couple have said, not all tablet and smartphone users are advanced enough to care about being locked into apple ecosystem. It could be argued that the majority of customers don't care about that. Also a big point for apple is their margins are rediculous compared to google.

The majority of customers, particularly outside of the US, can't afford an iPhone. Phones outside of the US aren't subsidized, so normally the full, unlocked price, needs to be paid. This is why Android is huge in EMEA, LATAM, and APAC.

As for the highend market, there was a time when a single Android device couldn't even be put in the same breath as the iPhone, but things have changed rather quickly. The Samsung Galaxy S3 was the best selling phone in Q3, having sold 18 million units in Q3, with the iPhone selling ~16 million 4S's and ~8 million 5's (so on an aggregate the "iPhone" sold more). Still, thats incredible for an OS that was considered to only have selling power in the low/mid range just 6 months ago.

Finally, Google isn't making money from Android in the same way that Apple is. And similarly, their revenue/profit isn't tied to Android as closely as the iPhone is tied to Apple's, which means Google has a ton more opportunity for experimentation and innovation (particularly with Android's open nature where people can do generally whatever they want if they dislike something), whereas Apple has to generally stick with what they know that works.

With only 1 billion smartphones sold, and 5 billion regular phones, the next 1 billion sold will be primarily Android (my guess is 70%). Apple will continue to appeal in the US, but with most users on 2 year plans, and most people who can afford smartphones already having smartphones ....

This is actually a negative because so much of the margin is dependent on carrier subsidies and product differentiation. Neither will last.

S3 also has huge margins (though smaller than iPhone5). This means margin compression (price war) is all but inevitable and can happen extremely abruptly if carriers scale back subsidies. Nexus 4, though not a threat in the short run, demonstrates this. $300 retail without contracts... 600 (-400 subsidies) with contracts. Margin compression will happen. The question is when and how fast.

what are the odds aapl closes under 510 in the next 2 months?

Why are you asking?

made a bet with a friend. wanna know how good/bad my price is

Even odds? or you/he got odds? And all you need is one day to close below 510 right?

correct i just need one day to close below 510. hes giving me 5 to 1.

I assume this bet was placed way before today because if it was placed after todays market close you flat out robbed him.

P.S I'm thinking you are at least 70% at this point (and maybe as high as 85)

it was placed about an hour ago. i know i robbed him. hes not a gambler and he thinks he knows everything about financial markets. obv doesnt understand **** about volatility. i was actually more wondering if theres a way to get a estimate of what a fair price should be by looking at options prices or something

Maybe, don't know but someone should call the police

wait your laying him 5 to 1? or he is giving you 5 to 1

So your saying that you will win 500 if you are correct (plus original stake returned) and he will win 100 if he is wrong??? lol him if that is correct

You could find out some sort of rough estimate from the options, but I am no qualified to do those calcs...