You could probably put on a spread and arb your friend

its his 5 to my 1. so ya if i win i get 5 plus my original stake. ya i was thinking thered be some sort of super rough estimate you could get by doing a simulation incorporating current options implied volatility or something. or i guess i could just get price history and bootstrap or fit simple arima model

just grab the implied vol from 510 options and simulate a geometric brownian motion stepping 1 day at a time. that should give you a pretty good estimate. price history and arima models aren't useful for this if we're assuming AAPL is fairly efficient. which implied vol you should use is debatable, but that's definitely a good start.

keep in mind that implied vols will have some probability of a larger crash priced in, so it'll probably overestimate the probability of your wager winning. (ie. large moves (crashes), though still rare, are more likely than predicted by a GBM model, and hence most of the time you'll see lower realized volatility than implied to balance that out. if you're feeling fancy you can use jump-diffusion processes or whatever the smart guys are using these days.)

LOL getting 5/1. Sounds like a 1/3 chance to me now. Just spreadbet long now to hedge your bet or i'll buy it off you at 1/2. I'd rather be long than short at these levels.

http://techcrunch.com/2012/12/09/aus...-misdirection/

Pretty crazy, I wrote that about a year ago and at times was certain AAPL wouldn't touch 425. Now I feel like the favorite.

Apple bullish article
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1134...ry-is-not-over

Time to buy?

i bought =)

I would be leery though - I only got 20 shares.

I got in @ 452.50 so obv i'm down $$$$ at the moment. But we will see what happens. i'm still in it for the long haul as I like this company and 20 shares is not a huge commitment.

Wonder what to make of BBY and Amazon offering lower prices on some of the Mac stuff recently. Apple seems like they're in a good position to maybe offer a couple sub $1k notebooks and concentrate on getting their existing stuff to a lower price point.

Their iPads, iPhones, MacBook Air and small devices seem more in need of an accessible purchase price than more minor innovations thrown at them. Win 8 hasn't been a boon for MS. Apart from phones, Androids not doing a lot but trying to get something going. I can't imagine a better time for Apple to get some products out there in the price ranges they've largely ignored. A $699 Apple notebook would kill it right now, doesn't even matter what you put in it. The iPad5 with a $100 price cut would kill it too even with tiny upgrades.

This is probably going to just sound crazy, but I was looking through the transactions of AAPL shares by insiders on Yahoo finance and I noticed that in March Tim Cook seems to sell some shares but last year he sold A LOT. Could the recent pullback in AAPL be related to him selling again in March, 2013?

On March 9th, 2011 it looks like he sold about 37,000 shares at around $345 per share in 2011 for about 13 million dollars and the he exercised his option on 37,000 more shares.

On March 9th and March 11th in 2012 he sold about 37,000 shares at around $550 per share for about 20 million dollars and exercised his option on another 37,000 shares.

But then on March 23rd 2012 he sold about 93,000 shares at a $595 share price for about 55 million dollars, and then exercised his option on 200,000 more shares.

Then again on March 25th, 2012 he sold about 106,000 shares at $595 for about 64 million dollars.

Also I had a question about what a part of those insider transactions meant.

Recently, on Jan 30th, 2013 41 (which doesn't seem like much) shares each were awarded to a few of the higher-ups and Tim Cook was one of them.

Yahoo finance wrote this in the transaction description column: "Acquisition (Non Open Market) at $387.17 per share."

I just wondered what that description meant.

I know it's probably just a coincidence but 380ish is what a lot of technical analysts are calling the bottom. The 387.17 per share in Jan 2013 just seems weird to me.

Etrade calls it

Apple gave him some options to buy 41 shares at $387.17.

Stock is a buy IMO
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1255...k-a-strong-buy

i dont get how people can have AAPL on their radar right now (or the past months fwiw if you werent in short term every now and then/shorting it). there are so much better spots out there but hey its APPLE SO I GOTTA BE IN or WTF is your mindset?

and lol at that seekingalpha article, really in depth and stuff (as usual for them). keep trying to catch its bottom if you want to lose money and listen to some moron analyst/report/whatever who has no f clue what hes talking about.

the stock is a "dont touch" right now imo.

inb4 people get lucky being long on AAPL and think they were right because of it - even though i dont think that its very likely.

it's just low right now - that's why people want in

the company also hasn't changed much since 2012

its been low for weeks and went lower and trying to predict and buy at bottoms is not a great strategy for the most part.

the company might have not changed much since 2012 but a stocks price does not reflect just the companies fundamentals.

i guess i might be a little biased since im more of a short term trader but i honestly dont think AAPL is a prime spot right now.

I got in last week. $420 IIRC. Worst case scenario it pays nice dividends and I hold it until they release their TV and sell in a couple years for > $1k per share. If it keeps going down in the mean time, I'll just buy more.

it might not be a good short term play but it's a great long term play. the company is worth way more than $430 per share.

Yeah, I'm not trying to pick a bottom, I'm trying to buy shares now that will be worth twice as much in three or four years time.

Based on what analysis?

I haven't read much of this thread but would be interested to hear why you think it will more than double it's share price in a couple years. If you have already stated it earlier in the thread I'm sorry.

I bought more last week at $428.

I'm a new trader, but I'm basically taking some to gamble a bit and learn. Majority of my money is in a permanent ETF portfolio.

I just thought that APPL was good value at the time, and seems even better now. I have high hope for it's TV and possible banking.

Can't be a horrible long play. The company makes way too much money and is ****ting cash.

Don't have the energy right now to do a big write up but basically the PE is way too low, their future growth prospects are insane and no part of the share price is baked in for new products.

So if they come out with another ipod/iphone/ipad like product that invents a new market, thats all going to be free money to shareholders. I'm confident that they will within that timeframe, possibly a bit longer.

"The worst case scenario it pays out nice dividends and you hold it until they release their TV and sell in a couple of years for > $1K per share"

Someone needs to seriously reevaluate his worst case scenario.

Sure, if.

Credit Apple for their ability to develop and market several blockbuster products in recent years, but it's not inevitable that future products will have the same level of success if not flop outright. I don't think you can bake in any new product launch expecting the next iTunes, iPad, iPhone and iPod. It's definitely possible (who'd have thought 4 big wins like that from anybody?) but certainly not a given. Even if successful, by the time Apple TV or whatever launches you could see some of their existing product line lose market share, the iPod/iTouch won't stick forever. They could launch a successful product but need it just to take the place of another that's fallen off.

Apple in the TV space is interesting but nobody has a clue what they have in mind. I own one of the current-gen AppleTV devices and it's definitely got some potential if they can get content. The problem I see there is the relationship between TV networks and carriers. Isn't always that great, but they have an established thing going. If Apple could divert programming to their setup and secure deals with say the NFL, the sky is the limit.

OTOH, you hear Apple talking about their small focus on a handful of products, and with their margin demands on sales they might not be competitive with cable/satellite carries afa networks are concerned.

Said it before but moving into the computer space between the iPad and MBA would be the most interesting thing for me to get higher on Apple. You want to move Apple TVs and sell some more iTunes and whatever else, then you need more people in the ecosystem. I think AirPlay works really well for example but I'd never had bothered with it using a Windows machine. Getting more of a household user base would set them up a lot better when it's time to ask people to switch their entire means of watching TV. There's a big hole there they don't occupy at all and lots of Windows users are up for grabs, but most aren't throwing $1200+ at a laptop.