at 20$ a barrel, i Wonder how long this oil war is gonna last before either russia or saudi's flinch, thinking about buying options or ETF's.

What is the best way? both with leverage and without.

Peak oil has been here for a long time, man. Didn't you hear?

What happens when they flinch? Do you think it's the Saudi/Russia war that matters most here??

3 billion people, most in oil-heavy Western societies and India, are on lockdown. Few planes are flying. How much do you think oil demand has dropped because of that?

Hint: It's not the oil war that's depressing prices, it's total demand collapse while the pumping continues. Once all the storage sites fill up it's going to be a shitshow.

at some point the world will come back to normal, cant stay that way for long

It will get bad but maybe scalp xle around $15. I wouldn’t buy anything else if I wanted to play oil

Eh, you don't know that. Travel will be restricted for a long time in much of the world, until we get a vaccine or viable treatment. Consumer discretionary spending will be way down in much of the world. It all adds up to a huge prolonged drag on oil demand.

I agree it will go up eventually, but when is anyone's guess and not a thesis. Personally I'm waiting for at least one oil price benchmark from somewhere in the world to go negative (they pay you to take the oil) before getting long.

What are some good ways to go long?

looking forward to this

XLE - OXY - XOM -

UCO is as well as it has a low decay but the other ones are safer. Also read the prospectus of UCO - it can possibly get liquidated if it goes under $1

Personally I don't think you can lose long term if you start buying XOM now - even though it probably has more pain in the short term. But I'm no fortune teller.

Oil storage, all that surplus supply has to go somewhere.

Oil futures actually or some derivative thereof. Take note of the April 2021 contract settlement.

adios, very good point.. i knew oil was in contango but not that much.

people definitely put too much emphasis on spot price...oil stocks don't have the volatility they'd have if they traded off spot. basically things are usually not as bad nor as good as what an extreme spot price shows.

someone else mentioned this. but it's interesting that one year oil is about 70% higher.... do hedge funds and big oil traders try to find unique ways of store the oil? like leasing underutilized tankers?

also in relation to massive contango, i'm guessing it's hard to get more oil out of cushing, oklahoma......... on a similar vein, that's why WCS (western canada oil) is so cheap, there's almost nothing you can do with spot oil purchases other than very expensive marginal transportation options. you might literally not be able to take delivery if you don't have a storage/transport option

What about the April 2021 contract?

Is that so?

May -> June $3.83 (18%)
June -> July $3.06 (12%)

Expectations are for the price of oil to rise are discounted in stock prices already. Why is this hard to understand?

Wait for all the oil companies in t he Permian Basin to go bankrupt and then buy some assets. Or just buy a house, apartment complex, or hotel in Midland, TX. Not yet though. This **** is just getting started.

So if the price of oil is expected to be higher, then are you suggesting to buy CL futures?

There is money to be made from this...

Whiting Executives Got $14.6 Million Bonuses Before Bankruptcy

grimreaper, when i said "i knew oil was in contango but not that much".... i meant "i didn't know it was that much", not "it's not that much".....

i usually think of contango as being fairly benign in oil...... of course, if we assume that storage costs are $10 per year, that's 50% of $20, 10% of $100... fixed storage cost is simplifying assumption.

beware that this comment is a para-phrase of a para-phrase

as per this article, goldman sachs may be teasing $55 oil in 2021 (i'm assuming high price for the year)

interesting that they think strandedness is now more important than production costs and that stranded assets (canada, USA, russia) will have to be shut-in..... canada has it really bad on both criteria. USA probably fairly bad on both. not sure about russia on production costs.

transport/storage is now a huge issue.

https://business.financialpost.com/e...box=1585571872

https://business.financialpost.com/e...box=1585571872

Answering a question with question GTFO.

We have this article https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil Market Chaos Has Created The Greatest Trade In Decades

Tanker stocks took a big hit yesterday at least the stocks I checked did. Pump and dump, not sure.

im starting to believe trump is manipulating markets and his cronies are making a profit out of it. Hey guys starts some longs im gonna send a tweet thats gonna pump the markets!

^^ welcome to last 4 years

Actually he's been engaged in this going back to the 80s at least. All of his public appearances, news interviews, tv shows etc were just a tool for him to manipulate the markets. We all remember what happened to oil after Trump made the surprise firing of Annie Duke. That was a double banger because it sent stocks into a 10+ year bull market.

Too pussy to answer the question. GTFO.