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Investing in cannabis Investing in cannabis

01-20-2014 , 10:07 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...l-9070594.html

with even Obama endorsing cannabis now, it looks like the legalisation movement is really rolling.

I wanted to start a thread for brainstorming ideas on how to make money on what could be an incredible move of a product to mass market (I believe it could be as big as alcohol)

So far I'm thinking buying land/internet distribution company/coffee shops as potential businesses.

Afghanistan or Swaziland don't seem the safest places to be buying so maybe Morocco/Nepal/Colombia/Caribbean would provide an opportunity? Or will production be low yield and retail be the place to be?

Thoughts please
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01-20-2014 , 10:13 PM
Subd.

I was just thinking the same thing. What about investing? Surely in the next couple years there will be the equivalent to budlight (no pun intended) or Marlboro. I'd like to get in on something like that. Does anyone know of any legit company's operating in Washington or Denver?
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01-21-2014 , 12:51 AM
the future is green. i would love to hear money making ideas in this space.
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01-21-2014 , 05:05 AM
Pot business has been a huge business for 50 years already. There are tons of people in this industry competing with each other. Now, they will compete with each other more openly. This is not a new industry. And they have massive industry expertise.

When the floodgates open, extra money will be made. But from things I've read, some of the established illegal dealers are actually moving to other areas where the illegality of it means higher prices and higher profit margins for them. After the initial drama settles, it just becomes another business.

Also, the Feds are turning a blind eye to intrastate pot commerce, but sooner or later some people will end up in jail when DEA goes after then for something. Swaziland, interstate commerce... forget it.

You probably watched this news report about Colorado pot limo... I like it. Low investment, high return, easy to divest, not competing with existing pot infrastructure/industry. Link to tours.
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01-21-2014 , 05:41 AM
I can't even begin to IMAGINE how insanely competitive this will end up being. Kind of like everyone and their mom trying to get in on the Facebook IPO thinking they'd make a ton of money.
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01-21-2014 , 04:30 PM
In the U.S at least, most medical states really make you operate in a quasi legal way.There are still large margins to be made if you are willing to take some risk in these areas. Start up costs are minimal if you just want to concentrate on the production aspects. Opening a dispensary in these markets would not really be worth your time or investment.

CO and Wash would not be worth anyone's time to do anything if you do not already live there or have something going.

Positioning your self in a soon to be medical state where you could have a retail+grow business would have huge returns as well as pretty large start up cost.

I believe New York will be the first state to skip past full medical and go straight to recreational laws. Black market retail prices there, are rather high in comparison the rest of the country. If the recreational market does not have to compete with an already existing medical market, NY could be a gold mine.

Outside of the black market, states will not have to compete with each other for at least 10 years and possibly 20-30 years. The market is massive as a whole. If 7% of the country spends 20$ a week that is 24b right there. It's most likely twice that.
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01-21-2014 , 06:57 PM
GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) is on my list.

Legit company doing R&D and has a partnership with Bayer. Undergoing trials and trying to open up into the US market.
"The Company is engaged in the research, development and commercialization of a range of cannabinoid prescription medicines to meet patient needs in a range of medical conditions."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GW_Pharmaceuticals
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NAS...pCnDYqFrAHh0gE
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01-22-2014 , 02:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rwillia789
I wanted to start a thread for brainstorming ideas on how to make money on what could be an incredible move of a product to mass market (I believe it could be as big as alcohol)
Too late to cyber-squat?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rwillia789

Afghanistan or Swaziland don't seem the safest places to be buying so maybe Morocco/Nepal/Colombia/Caribbean would provide an opportunity? Or will production be low yield and retail be the place to be?

Thoughts please
Kentucky farmland.
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01-22-2014 , 04:32 AM
u guys are making me grin
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01-22-2014 , 10:31 AM
total lack of creativity from the haters. i dont see much reason weed growing regions cant have the same prestige as wine growing regions in decades to come.
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01-22-2014 , 10:56 AM
When weed is legalized the cigarette companies will show up almost immediately... probably with a strain of weed that they had designed years ago that produces the desired characteristics (yield, THC level, resistance to the usual agricultural pests) outdoors. They have access to a level of capital, botanical expertise, and distribution.. As well as decades of experience dealing with heavy handed regulatory regimes.

My second runner up for 'big winners from weed legalization' would be Monsanto. Same reasons as above except that they would simply sell their new product line to farmers. Legalization will probably lead to the death of the 'counter culture entrepreneur' in the weed business. Some who are truly gifted will be brought in as consultants to help with product development... But in real life the fact that the industry is quasi legal protects them to a huge extent.

While it remains quasi legal it remains very risky and only viable as an investment on the production side. I'm also very dubious about that part of the business as it exposes you to all kinds of federal headaches (which makes scaling in a big way extremely risky).
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01-22-2014 , 12:27 PM
Private production will be tough, here in the Netherlands we are still in the weird legal situation where growing the cannabis is illegal for professional volumes (<5 plants/person is legal and seen as personal use). But selling the stuff isn't illegal.

In either case biggest costs (assuming indoors is your only option) is electricity costs for the greenhouse environment. There should be a reasonable margin if you can cooperate with established greenhouse farmers and/or invest in your own property which will be a much bigger investment obviously.

Regarding selling you have to assume the market is currently already quite saturated in alot of major places. The question is who transforms the supply to an attractive legislative environment. Here we go by coffeshops, i'm not sure if thats the ideal model or if you should be more thinking about starbucks but for weed. In my own experience here in the Netherlands there is a reasonable market for people that want to go someplace to smoke the weed instead of take it home for private use. The coffeeshops obviously offer both which can be the best startup. I would not be mega surprised if in 10-20 years there is some starbucks business model for weed all over the place tho.
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01-22-2014 , 01:16 PM
Waiting for this in Canada to jump in. Probably won't happen until Harper goes.
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01-22-2014 , 03:15 PM
I've been making good money off of the OTC stocks that are marijuana related. They seem to go up quickly with the smallest bit of positive info and then drop off on Fridays. This is from people booking their profit.

I can see several of these stocks going up 10X over the next year or so. A couple that I have traded over the last couple of weeks:

CBIS
MJNA
HEMP

I've considered the psychological/emotional side of investing in making short term decisions. All three above are easily recognized. First time investors will buy these just because the ticker makes sense. That assertion has worked for me thus far. I'm diving into the financials of some of them before committing to a longer term investment. Currently, I'm keeping my investments low enough that it won't disrupt the volume of any of them. The volume has been great, by the way.
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01-23-2014 , 08:58 PM
On the lastest HBO Real Sports the lead story involving NFL players and their pot usage is an interview with a scientist from Israel describing his brain studies on rats and the strong evidence of cannabis' healing powers in brain injuries. The VA is doing a study on its use to treat PSD. My point is there is serious potential beyond the pot shops.
Also, as a farmer, I hope we finally begin to exploit the plant for its fiber, foodstuff and oil. I think this will come soon as the wrong-headed ethanol subsidies are reduced.
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01-23-2014 , 09:25 PM
Start a website and sell overpriced ebooks that sell the dream to all the potheads who have the genius idea to jump on the gravy train as they hear that it's legalized in X state or Y country.

The best case scenario is that it will be like alcohol or cigarettes. The Al Capone's of the world will be put out of business, and real businesses will take over the trade, crushing all the bit players in the process.

Illegality and risk is what makes pot a valuable and particularly desirable high margin product. For customers, it is pretty tough to shop around. And for sellers, it is pretty tough to promote and get your name out there. If it's legal, it's just another business with all the regular headaches.
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01-24-2014 , 09:35 AM
Perhaps Malboro would be a good one?
http://abriluno.com/phillip-morris-i...na-cigarettes/

Don't like investing or recommending companies like this though, they seem like total scum but strictly in regards to Canabis investment for the future they seem quite well placed and forward thinking.
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01-24-2014 , 10:40 AM
It's also my understanding that the little guy stands to make almost nothing in the production of pot for consumption once this goes legal. For instance in Canada, prostitution is on the brink of going full legal. Literally the day after that battle was won, big money starts announcing super brothels.

Where big money can be made, big industry follows. Super farms, lowest production costs and labour, distribution channels, and so on.

Now all that being said, I think a brilliant mind could make money in the equivalent of the "whole foods" or "natural pantry" type spaces. Niches will be carved out in this industry, above and beyond the typical pounds of weeds of all strains. The tough part is that I think you need to be investing and developing your idea now, and creating your brand now. That's not easy in Canada for example (where I live). My friend and I have a few niche ideas, I'm not really at liberty to discuss them. But that's where I think the little guy can score. That and insider trading on who might be the big players to move into the weed space. I suppose there's probably also good upside in the accessory space. In Canada a site like http://vaporizers.ca/ just could never handle the demand that would follow legalization. So a bunch of people will fight over drop shipping those goodies.
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01-24-2014 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gullanian
Perhaps Malboro would be a good one?
http://abriluno.com/phillip-morris-i...na-cigarettes/
The above article is a hoax.

I think the way it will play out is that some rich people will pool resources together to fight it out and dominate the market and crush the small competitors. It's going to be people writing million dollar checks to very select existing enterprises that win.

I don't think Philip Morris/similar will ever try entering this market. They a 100B company with decent prospects abroad. It's not worth touching the hot-potato for them right now. If the legal pot business becomes a 40 billion dollar business in the US, then they might try to capture their 25% share. But not now, and not anytime soon. It's too small for them and too much negative attention. Don't forget that the people who are fighting for tobacco companies in state legislatures and US congress will not be receptive to defending pot businesses.
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01-24-2014 , 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_publius
Start a website and sell overpriced ebooks that sell the dream to all the potheads who have the genius idea to jump on the gravy train as they hear that it's legalized in X state or Y country.
Best idea ever
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01-24-2014 , 06:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_publius
The above article is a hoax.

I think the way it will play out is that some rich people will pool resources together to fight it out and dominate the market and crush the small competitors. It's going to be people writing million dollar checks to very select existing enterprises that win.

I don't think Philip Morris/similar will ever try entering this market. They a 100B company with decent prospects abroad. It's not worth touching the hot-potato for them right now. If the legal pot business becomes a 40 billion dollar business in the US, then they might try to capture their 25% share. But not now, and not anytime soon. It's too small for them and too much negative attention. Don't forget that the people who are fighting for tobacco companies in state legislatures and US congress will not be receptive to defending pot businesses.
Did you really just say that anything is too much negative attention for Phillip Morris? They have about as negative a brand as a person could imagine.
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01-24-2014 , 10:28 PM
They're popular enough in places where they need to be popular. In tobacco producing states, their support coalition would likely evaporate if the tried to enter the pot business.

I could be wrong on this and they might be able to sell their coalition on pot, but the sort of people who are in favor of tobacco business are vehemently opposed to pot.

In essence, they have the burden of history, current support, and existing profits to try out a giant change like this. It's similar to why most huge businesses do not make drastic pivots. It's usually new entrants and new coalitions that try their luck to hit it big (and if they do hit it big, they get bought out.)
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01-25-2014 , 12:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_publius
They're popular enough in places where they need to be popular. In tobacco producing states, their support coalition would likely evaporate if the tried to enter the pot business.

I could be wrong on this and they might be able to sell their coalition on pot, but the sort of people who are in favor of tobacco business are vehemently opposed to pot.

In essence, they have the burden of history, current support, and existing profits to try out a giant change like this. It's similar to why most huge businesses do not make drastic pivots. It's usually new entrants and new coalitions that try their luck to hit it big (and if they do hit it big, they get bought out.)
Pot is already Kentucky's largest cash crop. I suspect if Phillip Morris decided to get behind weed in a big way they could move the culture with them. Remember that in areas that seem to be anti weed there is a lot of behind-closed-doors pro weed sentiment and behavior.

At this point the only people still vehemently opposed to legalized weed are fairly old. In 10 years the demographics will have shifted to the point where legalizing weed has something like an 85% approval rating imo.. And the 15% who 'oppose' it won't oppose it all that much.

The states that stand to gain the most from large scale marijuana legalization are the rural ones. Farmers in the country could use another option when they decide to plant their crops. (it would raise crop prices across the board slightly... obviously it would crash the price of weed through the floor boards)
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01-27-2014 , 02:38 PM
I've made a tidy profit over the past 2 weeks, trading CBIS and HEMP.

They provide a unique opportunity for a penny stock, in that they are high enough volume that you can make a decent size purchase without greatly effecting the stock price. I see a couple of stocks in this area going up 5X over the next year. Maybe more...

Thoughts?
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01-27-2014 , 04:42 PM
I just got a decent amount of ERBB-Tranzbyte Corporation. This company is very interesting to me. They have a small market cap and lots of volume. But they own multiple businesses. They own dispensraries in legal states, the acquired a debit card company and offer a debit card to over 21 age people to use at their patented stand alone dispense machines. They also own a supplement company and had a comerical with Steve Nash. And they own an RFID technology company that they are trying to tie into their products.

All this for a penny! I looked into this pretty good and it looks like a huge upside to me with little risk. Revenues are going up, they now have a good amount of inventory, mark up seems high, and their spending and short term debt seems to be under control. I do think they need help with their cash flow but now that it is 2014, that should be improving 100x.
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