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2017 Trading Thread 2017 Trading Thread

06-28-2017 , 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Unlike you, I'm a talented enough trader that I don't need to work.
Maybe he's a talented enough worker that he doesn't need to trade?
06-29-2017 , 12:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I don't know anything either beyond what's been reported. It just seems to me that with a resolution in a bit over a week, you're making a bet on the end game. And if you have no idea how that will play out or what the odds are, it's hard to see an edge going short. Particularly since you need the odds of the deal falling through substantially in your favor for it to simply break even.

If you think they are, great, I have no opinion there. But given the situation, it's hard to see a short just because it's run up a fair bit.
I will chime in as I actually agree with tooth.

The price increase is due to the per share merger price (~$6+), increased activity/large buys, *there are only two voting members on the commission (splits=approval) with deadline fast approaching, and its easier to ride momentum to make money.

The downside: merger not approved the stock drops to ~1.50, only one (fake) news article from NYPost suggesting it wont happen.

If bought in $3 range= 100% gain vs. 50% loss (unless you use loss mgt like **stop loss).

*Im not the expert in this area and based this off of a few articles read.

** I would use caution with stop loss in this situation as this could be manipulated for a sharp drop so big money can scoop up at lower prices. I have set alerts to monitor.

I personally bought 1000 shares and will sell 50% before announcement to lock in gains and let 50% ride. A favorable announcement makes this a winning trade, an unfavorable announcement makes this slightly less than breakeven.
06-29-2017 , 01:07 AM
I was just reading an article on how the Republicans are about to get a 3-2 majority on the FCC Commission, which, among other things, would empower them to roll back regulations on net neutrality. The new guy is a former telecommunications lobbyist, so it's pretty obvious whose pocket he'll be in.

Does anybody have any thoughts on who would benefit the most? Verizon / AT&T / Comcast would be obvious beneficiaries, but are there any smaller players that might benefit (or be hurt) disproportionately from this?
06-29-2017 , 08:10 AM
So one thing I wasnt considering... Walgreens pulling the deal. Ouch
06-29-2017 , 10:33 AM
APRN - User acquisition costs are astronomical and retention rates are atrocious. Meal kits are extremely difficult to make profitable. They'll get bought.
06-29-2017 , 10:35 AM
Hopefully the dip buyers have been given the day off

interesting moves in the last 3 days. vix still super low
06-29-2017 , 12:20 PM
I'm thinking sell rallies now
06-29-2017 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by juan valdez
Hopefully the dip buyers have been given the day off

interesting moves in the last 3 days. vix still super low
+20% in the last hour and a half since you posted this, almost a straight line up. Lots of insurance buying.
06-29-2017 , 01:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
+20% in the last hour and a half since you posted this, almost a straight line up. Lots of insurance buying.
VIX is all the way up from extremely low to pretty darn low.
06-29-2017 , 01:28 PM
45% now.

ASAP17 the ultimate fade. If you bought when he first ridiculed SPY puts and called them the worst possible trade, 5 bagger overnight. If you bought when he said "lol" yesterday on the bull trap, 13 bagger overnight.
06-29-2017 , 01:30 PM
yeah vix still 13 is a snoozer, wake me when we hit 25.

vix 15 has been my "markets are sleepy/grindy" default for years, just this year we are having fun with the 10 handle super sleepiness.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
ASAP17 the ultimate fade. If you bought when he first ridiculed SPY puts, 5 bagger. If you bought when he said "lol" yesterday on the bull trap, 15 bagger.
could prob just sell s&p when he lols and buy s&p when you lol and i'd be rich

EOQ shenanigans ahead
06-29-2017 , 01:37 PM
HOS almost up 100% from its lows last month even as oil dropped steadily..
06-29-2017 , 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
could prob just sell s&p when he lols and buy s&p when you lol and i'd be rich
the TS lol was the LOD

ASAP do u have any comments? i need to know when to sell
06-29-2017 , 03:22 PM
ASAP disappeared again. Clearly, he only goes to work when the market is down lol

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G925A using Tapatalk
06-29-2017 , 03:59 PM
Bought some Jul 7 147 NVDA calls going into close. Expecting a solid MU earnings beat which should work out really nicely for my NVDA calls.
06-29-2017 , 05:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGreatest
HOS almost up 100% from its lows last month even as oil dropped steadily..
lol don't remind me. was so poised to make that trade and family came first.
06-29-2017 , 07:35 PM
Listened to the NKE conference call at work today, good earnings on the top and bottom line, partnership with amazon etc. Seemed like an over reaction to the conference call in after hours to me, I shorted a few hundred shares NKE at $57.50 when the call ended.

First time trying this strategy out, interested to see how NKE plays out tomorrow.
06-29-2017 , 11:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
I was just reading an article on how the Republicans are about to get a 3-2 majority on the FCC Commission, which, among other things, would empower them to roll back regulations on net neutrality. The new guy is a former telecommunications lobbyist, so it's pretty obvious whose pocket he'll be in.

Does anybody have any thoughts on who would benefit the most? Verizon / AT&T / Comcast would be obvious beneficiaries, but are there any smaller players that might benefit (or be hurt) disproportionately from this?
It's not going to have any immediate impact. What you read in the media about this topic is about 99% fake news.
06-29-2017 , 11:10 PM
I'm on vacation but I think this is a choosy Short's market. I have no idea about indices, but there was a lot of overbought stuff out there that is ripe for a correction. BIOS and EVI are two that I had an eye on after ridiculous run-ups on little/no news; fell 13 and 9% today. HOS probably falls in this category as well. There's absolutely no reason for the rip unless the market is expecting a nuclear war in the Middle East. Like seriously, if Saudi Arabia bombs Iran in the next 3 months I will have confirmation that the Illuminati (or Carlyle Group) are running the world.
06-30-2017 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by calmasahinducow
I'm on vacation but I think this is a choosy Short's market. I have no idea about indices, but there was a lot of overbought stuff out there that is ripe for a correction. BIOS and EVI are two that I had an eye on after ridiculous run-ups on little/no news; fell 13 and 9% today. HOS probably falls in this category as well. There's absolutely no reason for the rip unless the market is expecting a nuclear war in the Middle East. Like seriously, if Saudi Arabia bombs Iran in the next 3 months I will have confirmation that the Illuminati (or Carlyle Group) are running the world.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/408...large-discount
06-30-2017 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
I was just reading an article on how the Republicans are about to get a 3-2 majority on the FCC Commission, which, among other things, would empower them to roll back regulations on net neutrality. The new guy is a former telecommunications lobbyist, so it's pretty obvious whose pocket he'll be in.

Does anybody have any thoughts on who would benefit the most? Verizon / AT&T / Comcast would be obvious beneficiaries, but are there any smaller players that might benefit (or be hurt) disproportionately from this?
Quote:
Originally Posted by calmasahinducow
It's not going to have any immediate impact. What you read in the media about this topic is about 99% fake news.
Totally wrong imo. The FCC has a lot of power and it seems unlikely congress would pass legislation to reverse them on net neutrality.

bandwith providers will benefit while consumers and content companies will be hurt. You can google the list of companies that opposed changing the rules (tons of tech companies).
07-01-2017 , 10:03 AM
This is really huge ideas for this year trading!
07-01-2017 , 11:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eastern motors
Totally wrong imo. The FCC has a lot of power and it seems unlikely congress would pass legislation to reverse them on net neutrality.

bandwith providers will benefit while consumers and content companies will be hurt. You can google the list of companies that opposed changing the rules (tons of tech companies).
Ok, thanks for repeating the narrative.
07-03-2017 , 08:57 AM
Gold has been delivering really good setups lately, +50 ticks today. Will trail this one as I don't see anything on the left on this chart. Could look into continuous contract, but whatever...

07-03-2017 , 09:38 AM
Got stopped out with +93 ticks

      
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