2017 Trading Thread - Page 56 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Could you give me a reason why do you think it's a bad idea? My main argument is that it kind of hedges my GILD position which relies on the US healthcare reform passing and also the fact that h1b visas will get crushed and yellen is speaking this week which is a worry for the market always. Seems like the perfect spot to do it tbh

06-26-2017 , 12:47 PM

#1377

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by EZX

Why not buy puts or sell calls in GILD to hedge if that's your reasoning (or at least the IBB)? Buying puts in SPY makes no sense (there is no immediate catalyst, does nothing to protect your position, GILD has very little/nothing to do with the health care bill, etc) neither does the rest of your post.

06-26-2017 , 12:53 PM

#1378

EZX

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 526

hmm your right i think doing it with IBB was much better like way better can't believe that it didn't even cross my mind. I'm dumb. GILD has alot riding on this healthcare bill passing and the executive order draft.
I'll get out of my spy puts and do it with IBB instead. Thanks!

06-26-2017 , 12:56 PM

#1379

daChimp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 7,350

Glad I got into RAD last week. Its face ripping today and there could be catalyst to rip much higher within a week or two.

06-26-2017 , 12:56 PM

#1380

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Stop trying to call the top by buying SPY puts, literally do anything else. Short individual names/sectors, sell calls, whatever but trying to time a correction has consistently been one of the worst trades out there. Look at the action globally this morning, does that look bearish to you? You have multi year, decade breakouts happening all over the place.

06-26-2017 , 01:17 PM

#1381

MediocrePlayer2.0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 9,205

hopefully I'm not the only one out there that bought VALEANT today after it just crossed its 200d

.... in at 22.50

been accumulating the bioturds this year as they crossed the 200d after being trash for 12 - 18 mths ..... jazz abbv nvo and most recently gild and vrx.to

did get stopped out of allergan for a small loss then of course it got the rocket strapped to it.

basically if bio, tech and solar crash i'm gonna go live in a van down by the river

06-26-2017 , 02:53 PM

#1382

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

Yes, the past is the future.

Are you saying vol is overpriced with VIX at 9.75? If so, lol @ you.

If you don't think vol is overpriced, how is buying SPY puts "one of the worst trades out there"? Conversely, doesn't' that make selling SPY puts with VIX at 9.75, "one of the best trades out there"?

And going back over the last couple of month, I think your statement is false, by the way. Weekly puts paid a 20 bagger in May, for example, and others have paid too, though less. I think if you blindly bought weekly puts you'd be ahead.

Quote:

Look at the action globally this morning, does that look bearish to you? You have multi year, decade breakouts happening all over the place.

So you're long?

06-26-2017 , 03:27 PM

#1383

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

I actually think the terrible trade here is being long. If we're unlikely to go meaningfully higher, then all that this sideways action is achieving for longs is making the likelihood of a catalyst induced crash approach 100%.

And the idea that we're unlikely to go meaningfully higher is backed by solid analysis, imo.

06-26-2017 , 03:31 PM

#1384

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

Wow puts were a 20 bagger for a day provided you got in and out perfectly! What a sick trade!

06-26-2017 , 03:34 PM

#1385

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

You always sound like an idiot saying it's a binary choice to be long or short. So many different ways to play the markets and that's my point about why SPY puts are offered so cheap. The pros are happy to sell them to you.

06-26-2017 , 04:01 PM

#1386

juan valdez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

yeah im not pretending i can time the market but things seems to shaky right now. the ultra low vix is an opportunity and a red flag imo

I'm super bearish and short a bunch of underlyings but i'm also short premium in some stocks with some actual volatility on a shorter time horizon (with defined risk to the downside)

I think buying weekly puts is a death wish but longer dated ones with vol this low seems like bargain

06-26-2017 , 04:09 PM

#1387

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

yeah im not pretending i can time the market but things seems to shaky right now. the ultra low vix is an opportunity and a red flag imo

I'm super bearish and short a bunch of underlyings but i'm also short premium in some stocks with some actual volatility on a shorter time horizon (with defined risk to the downside)

I think buying weekly puts is a death wish but longer dated ones with vol this low seems like bargain

So if this is your idea, you can use put calenders which means selling shorter dated puts to finance the longer dated ones that will obviously decay a lot slower over time. There are so many other options than buying shorter term puts (especially when you don't spread it out) during a catalyst light summer especially over the next few weeks. Inside the index there is plenty of rotation which is where I'd believe you get a better return when expressing a direction.

06-26-2017 , 04:22 PM

#1388

juan valdez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

yeah i have rut calendars on

if you sell a bunch of neutral premium on stocks with a shorter duration and then buying some cheap OTM put verticals in the indexes you have protection and also a very cheap shot at big winners. with the Vix this low and some of the bigger underlyings with some decent volatility you can do well if the market stays flat and very well if it finally makes a down move

long story short, i think the vix is extraordinarily cheap and that is an opportunity. of course the market could keep climbing...

06-26-2017 , 04:30 PM

#1389

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

You always sound like an idiot saying it's a binary choice to be long or short. So many different ways to play the markets and that's my point about why SPY puts are offered so cheap. The pros are happy to sell them to you.

This doesn't even make any sense. Think it through slowly.

06-26-2017 , 04:34 PM

#1390

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

This doesn't even make any sense. Think it through slowly.

& why doesn't that make sense?

06-26-2017 , 08:50 PM

#1391

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

Short individual names/sectors, sell calls, whatever

Shorting stock seems like a worse idea. Individual stocks can have a mind of their own, but can't move an index.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

but trying to time a correction has consistently been one of the worst trades out there in 2017.

FYP. Only looking to get long SPY is very nitty. Luckily, the market doesn't punish individual traders for being nitty.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

Look at the action globally this morning, does that look bearish to you?

No, but the afternoon sure did!

06-27-2017 , 12:50 PM

#1392

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Another voice just now that we ain't going much higher:

Quote:

Stocks Tick Lower on Fed William Comments 'Stock Market Running on Fumes'

Now we have Goldman Sachs and fed members saying the market is too high.

ASAP17 is in the other corner, looking backward and extrapolating forward.

06-27-2017 , 12:54 PM

#1393

SpursDynasty

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 610

Hoping for positive news with Cara that's supposed to come this week. 5 day chart is nuts

06-27-2017 , 01:10 PM

#1394

juan valdez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

Quote:

Originally Posted by daChimp

I think if you're not buying SHOP and NVDA on every dip, you're doing it wrong. But that's just my opinion... 😁

sticking to the plan?

06-27-2017 , 01:16 PM

#1395

daChimp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 7,350

Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

sticking to the plan?

I added NVDA and watching SHOP for now. Will likely add more today or tomorrow.

06-27-2017 , 02:21 PM

#1396

daChimp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 7,350

Quote:

Originally Posted by juan valdez

sticking to the plan?

Not gonna lie, it sucks today but Im glad I dont need the money today. Lets revisit in a few weeks/months

06-27-2017 , 02:24 PM

#1397

EZX

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 526

wow that was an amazing drop for ibb

06-27-2017 , 02:42 PM

#1398

Steiger

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 145

GC has been really kind to me today. I am still in the second trade, should reach todays VPOC (red line in the chart), but I might close it manually...+61 ticks so far

06-27-2017 , 03:09 PM

#1399

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by EZX

i bought some SPY puts aswell, really don't think this will be a good week for the markets at all.

Well done. 5 bagger and counting.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

Quote:

Originally Posted by EZX

i bought some SPY puts aswell, really don't think this will be a good week for the markets at all.

Why are you buying puts on the index & why won't this be a good week? Hilarious how often this is such a bad idea/trade.

lol

06-27-2017 , 03:24 PM

#1400

juan valdez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 5,686

Quote:

Originally Posted by daChimp

Not gonna lie, it sucks today but Im glad I dont need the money today. Lets revisit in a few weeks/months

interesting timing for this news to come out lol

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/nvidi...cy-mining.html

i would keep your eye on the cryptos imo

i'd wish you luck but i'm short

Also noticed the fed hinting at stocks being priced high. seems like they could be positioning these comments to coincide with their belief we could see a pull back. maybe i'm reading too much in to it though

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