Bah I'd been looking at it once a day which is the 15 mins I've had to devote to investing this year. Starting getting buy itchiness at 1.6 and never did. All the regrets. Was really close to, had put together something of a plan and thought I'd have just a bit more time.

I am gonna buy some SHOP and AKAM at the bell today though. First buys in months. May jizz when it happens. Probably 1/3 my normal size.

nobody can tell you that, because it's not in their hands.

i have HOS. i have about a normal position for me (was about 8% with an average entry of about 5,50$, so today it's about 4%).

they basically bought themself 2 years in which they can act freely with cash on hand and this revolver. i'm not at home and don't have the exact numbers and dates, but from the top of my head:
they have about 1,05b$ in debt, about 250m is due in late 2019 and
then about 400m in the summer of '20 and '21 each. so 8 quarters is when it gets ugly.
cash now is about 200m and they burned about 8m last quarter. plus they will need to pay around 75m for two new ships next year. 8m x 8 + 75m lets them burn about 140m of cash until late 2019. so they basically have no chance to pay any of it back and will be forced to chapter11.

if you look at TDW bankruptcy I think it's reasonable to assume that shareholders won't get wiped out fully but get to keep 1% < X < 10% of the company. helps keep management and existing holders on board and HOS management seems pretty exceptional if you look at how they did compared to other companies. so i think there's a floor somewhere here. 5% of restructured HOS might not be that much worse than 100% of today's (TDW stock is flat or up after they went ch11).

but without offshore activity picking up they're pretty much dead. and this is where the big difference to TDW and GLF lies, they got about 2 more years for things to change.

market pretty much assumes offshore's dead because of US shale. but there are a few factors here. shale's breakeven came down a lot in the last 5 years to ~45$, better in some cases. due to technical advances and cost cutting. the production of shale wells drops pretty fast after about 18months, so new tech can be incorperated pretty quickly into new wells. but there's the story that 45$ breakeven might be the best that's archievable for US shale in the foreseeable future. because you have to drill a lot of new wells, the land gets more expensive and existing infrastructure is reaching full capacity right now.

technical advances in offshore drilling are visible way slower because of the long time horizon of the projects. but they are happening. 5y ago breakeven for gulf of mexico was about 60$, next year there will be projects with 45$ breakeven or less. there are some other factors i think that might help them, but those are more about oil in general.

at the moment my guess is, there's about a 20% chance their situation in 2 years is better and they will be able to refinance at ugly terms but without chapter11.
60% says they go chapter 11 and shareholders are left with <10% of the new company, which might be worth the same it is today.
15% is they go bankrupt and shareholders get nothing.
5% is a total turnaroung in oil and i will be sipping drinks on beaches all over the world for the next 10 years.


tl;dr: market thinks offshore is dead, everything is ****, no one wants to touch the sector, oil market is complex, things can turn quickly, there might be opportunity here.

Really interesting list of names on both the 52w high & low lists today, much broader than a lot of the noise makers (tech/FANG 24/7) would like to discuss. Lmk if you have an opinion on any of these for a trade and notice the themes among the names I picked out.

Highs: Abbvie (ABBV), Abbott Labs (ABT), Accenture (ACN), Aetna (AET), Allstate (ALL), Anthem (ANTM), Boeing (BA), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), Blackrock (BLK), Caterpillar (CAT), Chubb (CB), Deere (DE), Edison (ED), FedEx (FDX), Honeywell (HON), H&R Block (HRB), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Masco (MAS), 3M (MMM), Altria (MO), Progressive (PGR), Travelers (TRV), Wayfair (W), Whole Foods (WFM), Wynn (WYNN)

Lows: Continental Resources (CLR), Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Devon Energy (DVN), Fitbit (FIT), Footlocker (FL), Fossil (FOSL), Gilead (GILD), Hess (HES), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Kroger (KR), O'Reilly Auto (ORLY), Pandora (P), Rite Aid (RAD), Snapchat (SNAP), Molson Coors (TAP), Target (TGT), TJ Maxx (TJX)

btw - u mentioned SHOP as a prime takeout candidate way back when in a random post...thanks for that as it wasn't on my radar and entered shortly after looking into it more. exited in the 90s

Set to make first buys of the year, and my broker's site is totally down right now.

I'm not that superstitious, but that site was never down once while I traded like a fiend. May have to call that a sign.

Peeked at the chart and fundamentals of FL foot locker on your 52w low list. Surprised they managed to hold on so long vs e commerce. Especially since they are just in giant malls as far as i know and have seen. Ive heard a lot of, maybe even most people just go into apparel shops to try stuff on then buy online. Chart is cofirmed top on gap down. Would be ideal to short on a bear flag, some spike up in price imo if it comes.

LAYN is turning around. They reported earnings recently. Doubled EBITA last quarter and surprised positive on EPS. Looks to be guiding EPS positive next year. About a current forward PE multiple of 15. They are investing heavily in this water basin and it sounds like its going to pay off. Chart is that gap up quick bull flag that has been working lately. call transcript and new water basin project below

https://seekingalpha.com/article/408...all-transcript

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...300469944.html

This market euphoria is never ending.

Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech happened in late 1996.

X, NUE, STLD - steel is up across the board.

So did you dump this trade or just hold on until it is a zero?

man and i was starting to get worried about tech lol me

Are you going to be a dick about it ? Obviously the 16th was the better buy time , especially if I got out in the morning. But sure be an arrogant prixk

RAD options expiring 28 Jul @ 3.50 look like a nice price based on todays action, pending action and swirling rumors.

lol SHOP trolling me nicely after I couldn't buy Friday

triggered

Am I the only sucker still holding the VNR(SQ) bag? I put a limit sell order in at 75 cents in case someone epically misclicks

ALXN - Make my portfolio great again

Nice. Thats a good one. If you wanna see a 1,000 bagger on the Nasdaq check out DCTH. Its no squeeze either. ZN was cool to. Love my PLNT

was once $3900 and now at $2, is that real?

DCTH vol only 600 mil today

Went for a MAS short way back and failed. At least I made the money back with the house going up here in the east bay. Knowing a friend of mine just rented a 600sq 1 bed in Sunnyvale for 2598 made me a bit more interested in jumping back in here at 39.

That short-term trade was not initiated because of a "gosh houses are expensive, gonna short a building stock" but it isn't looking like a bad idea now.