Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
2017 Trading Thread 2017 Trading Thread

06-07-2017 , 01:50 PM
SNAP think it falls fast, takes out $18's. JPM downgrade other day,less than great user grwth. INTC Intel seems like the only value tech. 16 earnings multiple, 3% forward div yield, decent peg ratio, recent MBLY acquisition.
06-07-2017 , 01:54 PM
For anyone interested. Comey's prepared remarks, released just now:

https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/...mey-060817.pdf
06-07-2017 , 02:05 PM
In essence it confirms in full the allegations in the NYT article three weeks ago that caused the market to drop 1.5%.

However, it offers no possibility of impeachment it seems; these allegations by themselves aren't enough for that. Mild to moderate impropriety at best.

Markets seems slightly heartened so far at this.
06-07-2017 , 02:19 PM
Quote:
On the morning of March 30, the President called me at the FBI. He
described the Russia investigation as “a cloud” that was impairing his ability to act
on behalf of the country. He said he had nothing to do with Russia, had not been
involved with hookers in Russia, and had always assumed he was being recorded
when in Russia.
lol
06-07-2017 , 02:35 PM
There's a fair amount of red meat here for aggressive Senate questioning. My read on Comey is that he's is in love with the idea of his own infallible integrity (see: John Ashcroft). Therefore, I don't think it was realistic to think that he would incriminate Trump in his opening statements, because that would be an implicit admission that he had actionable intel and sat on it until he was fired.

I think one possible strategy for Comey here (which I think is more likely than not, since he's undoubtedly pissed off that he got fired and that there are PACs who have taken out advertising to attack him both personally and professionally with advertising during his testimony) is to give just enough red meat in his opening statements for the Senators to work with, but to subtly work to implicate Trump with his actual testimony under questioning.

I think McCain's questioning tomorrow is going to be critical. He was somewhat aggressive in his questioning today, and that's probably foreshadowing what's to come. McCain is also critical to any actual impeachment case, since without him and Lindsey Graham there's no way anything would ever come to pass.
06-07-2017 , 02:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
Nothing really robust tbh. Saudies and Qatar (which extends much farther than Saudi Arabia), ISIL starting to cause trouble inside Iran, GCC breakup, the Brits looking to point guns somewhere, Trump maybe needing some sort of overseas distraction.

There's really nothing I can point to and say definitively. Just seems like an interesting backdrop while oil is under $50. I know the market would be pricing it in now if they thought it was an issue. That said I've always bought/sold oil with my gut, and I just like the floor/ceiling here for the medium term.
if i've learned anything from trading oil the last 4 years, take your gut instinct on what makes sense and then do the opposite. it's the quintessential pain market. only time logic made sense was the thanksgiving OPEC massacre.

in all seriousness though, i think market is paying more attention to OPEC's poor attempts at strengthening/lengthening cuts and the supply situation is so much bigger than any short term geopolitical issue. you'd need to see destabilization in the bigger producers for a measured longterm geopolitical buy.
06-07-2017 , 03:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
if i've learned anything from trading oil the last 4 years, take your gut instinct on what makes sense and then do the opposite. it's the quintessential pain market. only time logic made sense was the thanksgiving OPEC massacre.

in all seriousness though, i think market is paying more attention to OPEC's poor attempts at strengthening/lengthening cuts and the supply situation is so much bigger than any short term geopolitical issue. you'd need to see destabilization in the bigger producers for a measured longterm geopolitical buy.
Well I've certainly not filled a single order, and the downtrend is something I never try and fight. That above all else has served me well in trading this sector.
06-07-2017 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer

However, it offers no possibility of impeachment it seems; these allegations by themselves aren't enough for that. Mild to moderate impropriety at best.
Would have to agree. Certainly not grounds for anything close to impeachment if this is the extent of the information disclosed.
06-07-2017 , 03:51 PM
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/872529336825499648

The most damning allegations seem to be the Mike Flynn stuff, not the stuff with respect to Trump's alleged direct relationship with Russia.
06-08-2017 , 09:03 AM
That NVDA gap up is sick. I sold off portion of my longs ahead Comey testimony.

I bucked the trend on VRX and loaded up the other day. They are making reasonable progress reducing their debt (albeit a ways to go). I anticipate pops on each piece of positive news such as this morning.
06-08-2017 , 09:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
if i've learned anything from trading oil the last 4 years, take your gut instinct on what makes sense and then do the opposite. it's the quintessential pain market. only time logic made sense was the thanksgiving OPEC massacre.

in all seriousness though, i think market is paying more attention to OPEC's poor attempts at strengthening/lengthening cuts and the supply situation is so much bigger than any short term geopolitical issue. you'd need to see destabilization in the bigger producers for a measured longterm geopolitical buy.
Oil has been range bound for quite a while and has lost a lot of its volatility. Yesterday we had a huge rip down on the inventory report and after that 5-10 minute rip it was deadass sideways the rest of the day.

Oil is dying as a trading vehicle just like its cousin Natural Gas did. NG was the greatest trading vehicle ever until the 2008 bubble burst and fracking took hold. Since then it has been a miserable market to trade as they improved the technology and extraction methods so much which basically gives an unlimited supply. The same thing is now happening in oil. It has been taking a little longer to take hold in oil since it is both a much bigger and more global market. Plus it has a lot of sovereign government influence.

But the technology and extraction methods are so improved in the last decade I really can't envision any of those old school oil rallies happening maybe ever again. I hope I am wrong as I love trading these markets when they are volatile but lately the volatility just isn't there. If NG is an indicator it aint coming back.
06-08-2017 , 09:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daChimp
That NVDA gap up is sick. I sold off portion of my longs ahead Comey testimony.
Comey kind of bricked it yesterday with the pre-release. I was expecting negative news cycle/fear ahead of the unknown as a downward driver.

Regardless, interesting day. UK election, EU central bank meeting, Comey testimony. And VIX at 10.4.
06-08-2017 , 09:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twelve yr old
Like this, even with negative analysts comments today still, its very strong. BABA investor day is also tomorrow, so could add more fuel to china internet fire.

I picked up some FIVE today, discount retail is still going strong and their earnings and guidance were great last week. Long runway ahead for them too
Wow options weren't pricing in BABA giving guidance at all
06-08-2017 , 10:10 AM
This is turning into full he said/she said.

06-08-2017 , 10:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
There's a fair amount of red meat here for aggressive Senate questioning. My read on Comey is that he's is in love with the idea of his own infallible integrity (see: John Ashcroft). Therefore, I don't think it was realistic to think that he would incriminate Trump in his opening statements, because that would be an implicit admission that he had actionable intel and sat on it until he was fired.

I think one possible strategy for Comey here (which I think is more likely than not, since he's undoubtedly pissed off that he got fired and that there are PACs who have taken out advertising to attack him both personally and professionally with advertising during his testimony) is to give just enough red meat in his opening statements for the Senators to work with, but to subtly work to implicate Trump with his actual testimony under questioning.
Looks like this was spot on. He's going hard right now off the bat...and getting revenge right from his opening statement. This will play badly in the media from Trump.
06-08-2017 , 10:22 AM
They will try to make this as bad as possible for him, but will not matter one bit.
06-08-2017 , 10:33 AM
Which has more active colluders, pokerstars or the white house?
06-08-2017 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wopbabalubop
Which has more active colluders, pokerstars or the white house?
epic
06-08-2017 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
TTM Technologies (TTMI) is another idea I'm long right now, flagging/consolidating after a massive move up over the past year on significant earnings growth projected by 2019 without an erosion in margins. Love these setups on companies that make huge moves with an upward bias and then spend months crushing vol allowing the MAs to catch up.
Having a great week (my buddy got 2nd in the Colossus last night too).
06-08-2017 , 11:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Having a great week (my buddy got 2nd in the Colossus last night too).
Nice man. Did you have a piece of him?
06-09-2017 , 01:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
Nice man. Did you have a piece of him?
Nah, just awesome to see someone's life change like that. Really happy for him.
06-09-2017 , 09:27 AM
I'm not a forex trader at all, but I was wondering how the Pound could plummet after the Brexit vote and then plummet again when the election shows that Brexit might be in doubt?

Is it as simple as a minority government being bad for the currency?
06-09-2017 , 09:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigt2k4
I'm not a forex trader at all, but I was wondering how the Pound could plummet after the Brexit vote and then plummet again when the election shows that Brexit might be in doubt?

Is it as simple as a minority government being bad for the currency?
Brexit is a better course of action than the uncertainty that may lead to a Corbyn term that would be absolutely terrible for the UK.
06-09-2017 , 11:12 AM
#whenwillitend ?

      
m