CPRX breaking out, running into the close

TTM Technologies (TTMI) is another idea I'm long right now, flagging/consolidating after a massive move up over the past year on significant earnings growth projected by 2019 without an erosion in margins. Love these setups on companies that make huge moves with an upward bias and then spend months crushing vol allowing the MAs to catch up.

Im long SHOP. I believe there is still more growth, just monitor subscriptions. Additionally, they get additional profit from their payment processor.

Well, Goldman Sachs just came out and predicted a 6% decline this year. Article is good read (it's ripped from GS if you scroll down).

Goldman: S&P To Decline 6% As 'Reality' Trumps 'Hope'

We've gotten too far above fundamentals (of all kinds). Correction is coming. Now is a good time to sell at $244 SPY, IMO. You hear the correct opinions here first, before GS.

I have 2 thoughts...

1 is just echoing something TS said sometime recently, that when there finally is some legitimate headwinds that the profit taking will come fast and furiously because people are sitting on 200-250% gains over the last 8 years. It will take real anxiety/perception that the bubble is popping for this to happen and who knows when that is, but when it comes I do think the selling could be fast.

The other is that if you look at the S&P top 5 holdings (12.4% of S&P) it is MSFT/AMZN/FB/AAPL/GOOG. All tech companies that are a little more volatile and high PE/beta than your typical top 5 holdings for the S&P. I believe this was the case at the top of '00 as well. These companies are not going to have the resiliency of a JNJ or P&G during a market downturn I don't think. So I could see that accelerating the decline as well. Those 5 are up to almost 3T in market cap.

But who knows when all of that is, might be this month, might be in 3 years...

Idk. We are at full employment (de jure not de facto), there is over a trillion dollars of cash in corporate bank accounts, and productivity is growing due to widespread automation. Yeah there is systemic risk in China, Italy, Middle East, etc.. but overall markets are growing freer and more profitable.

Share buybacks and takeovers should keep the S&P afloat (also need to mention the upward bias of the indexing/ETF feedback loop) and the real economy may very well pick up steam in a couple years.

Yeah barring calamity I'm a mid term mild bull after a correction. I have the same view as that in the Goldman graphs, which are likely the case assuming no recession/business as normal/no shocks - a fairly large assumption imo.

Has anyone given any thought as to how they're going to play Comey's testimony on Thursday? I'm in the process of looking for some high beta Trump stocks to potentially short, would appreciate any input.

SPY puts. Dirt cheap, 10-20 bagger if anything bad happens, breakeven if it throws any shade at all, and sometimes regardless. Probable loss if Comey clears him completely.

thx

If you want to short a "Trump trade" take a look at the financials specifically GS & JPM. Doesn't have a lot to do with Comey but if the market goes, these names are getting hammered first especially with how strong bonds continue to be.

Btw I do expect the testimony to have no impact in equities, just like every other geopolitical concern for the past 5 years on a market level. Within the market itself obviously there have been huge rotation between sectors and that's where you can take advantage.

Are you high? Just two weeks ago we lost 1.5% in a day - the biggest move in ages - when an anonymous source claimed that inappropriate Trump/Comey talks happened.

The market itself last year stagnated all year, sold off then ripped when Trump won.

Yeah, long term, equities tick through geopolitics, but this is a trading thread, not a "hurr durr buy the dip we're going higher until the next recession on year-long time frames" thread. Something which is probably true by the way.

The point of a trading thread is to look for things which can move the market, and your claim that geopolitical events have had "no impact" on equities in the last 5 years is absurd. There have been multiple excellent trades on geopolitical events in the last five years.

Whether Comey has an effect will depend on what's said. If it puts Trump impeachment on the table, we lose a lot, quickly. If it doesn't, yeah, it has no effect.

Right now, as if to make a fool of you, we're ripping 0.2% in five minutes on volume - back to zero after lagging at -0.2% all day - on this little bit of news:

Comey May Stop Short of Saying Trump Obstructed Justice - ABC

This stuff moves market short term, whether you're aware of it or not. Look at the massive volume spike right now from 14:30 to 14:35. That is on the ABC commentary. That is how markets work.

Thanks for this. Very interesting.

Hey TS what names do you like and don't like right now so we can get your opinion on some actual trades?

Short Aapl and long SPY puts, anything else?

Check out @modestproposal1's Tweet: https://twitter.com/modestproposal1/...799339009?s=08

STRP bid history

Thanks for sharing this, and the more I think about I think a short term correction is even more likely. Always appreciate you sharing the sources.

I agree with this though. There's gonna be a "shock effect" where we lose what 1-3 maybe 4%, market realizes that no material changes have been made regarding the geopolitical "scandals", and we pop right back up. Political uncertainty and North Korea scares are my go to "fear buys".

I like this trade, I purchased 50 6/9 expiry 242 SPY puts.

Kinda feel like I shoulda waited til tomorrow/pushed the expiry to 6/16. Anyway, i'm bored and will stop posting now. Heading to WSOP for a couple weeks in a few days, felt like a little gamble before I gamble.

Really have enjoyed this thread the last 12 months, hope we can all pull some nice wins together soon.

I have the 6/23 , I feel that's just enough time for it to sink in , but maybe a little too time cautious. 6/16 probably more optima. I'm going to Vegas tomorrow as well. We should do a BFI meet up.

I can't be the only one thinking of buying up a basket of distressed oil plays and some USO for about a month? Figure my downside is 10-15% across the board, but my upside like 75-100%. Anyone else see it that way with some of the geopolitical goings on? I know the trend is still down right now, but it strikes me as an interesting risk/reward spot.

Why do you think oil will shoot up?

Would be nice to see a robust analysis.

Nothing really robust tbh. Saudies and Qatar (which extends much farther than Saudi Arabia), ISIL starting to cause trouble inside Iran, GCC breakup, the Brits looking to point guns somewhere, Trump maybe needing some sort of overseas distraction.

There's really nothing I can point to and say definitively. Just seems like an interesting backdrop while oil is under $50. I know the market would be pricing it in now if they thought it was an issue. That said I've always bought/sold oil with my gut, and I just like the floor/ceiling here for the medium term.

Relentless, probably will look to take some profits at $315.

Like this, even with negative analysts comments today still, its very strong. BABA investor day is also tomorrow, so could add more fuel to china internet fire.

I picked up some FIVE today, discount retail is still going strong and their earnings and guidance were great last week. Long runway ahead for them too