Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
2017 Trading Thread 2017 Trading Thread

05-12-2017 , 10:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarathonMan7
I asked you yesterday what I had not yet refuted, and you had zero response because you didn't know. I will ask one more time directly to you:

Which point have I not refuted? 100% guarantee you have no idea.
Offering a quack-job tinfoil explanation to well articulated posts doesn't quite pass for a refutation. I'm also not really interested in wasting time rehashing the entire thread since you've proven that you're not willing to accept any answer other than the ones you've chosen to believe. How about you list each point that you think you refuted because for me to tell you the ones you failed at I'd essentially be quoting the entire discussion.

I don't want to really jump in on the bloodbath but I'll just say that it's clear from this thread that the extent to which you're invested has clouded your ability to use rational thought and you've gone off the deep-end. Understandable considering how deep your position is, but once you've come back to reality I think you'll look back at this thread and garner the same entertainment value from it that everyone else has.
05-12-2017 , 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
You need to work on your exits.
Can't exit the stock position, no chance of exiting the thread relating to said stock position.
05-12-2017 , 11:49 PM
I like BABA going into this next year
05-13-2017 , 01:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHardKnocks
Offering a quack-job tinfoil explanation to well articulated posts doesn't quite pass for a refutation. I'm also not really interested in wasting time rehashing the entire thread since you've proven that you're not willing to accept any answer other than the ones you've chosen to believe. How about you list each point that you think you refuted because for me to tell you the ones you failed at I'd essentially be quoting the entire discussion.

I don't want to really jump in on the bloodbath but I'll just say that it's clear from this thread that the extent to which you're invested has clouded your ability to use rational thought and you've gone off the deep-end. Understandable considering how deep your position is, but once you've come back to reality I think you'll look back at this thread and garner the same entertainment value from it that everyone else has.
You're not as smart as my cousin says you are. That's the truth. Still a good guy though from what I remember. I am willing to listen to other answers, except so far everything everybody said is wrong. I've refuted everything. And you don't have the intelligence to explain to me why my logic is wrong, yet you still have the nerve to say that I'm wrong with zero supporting evidence. I'm gonna ask a 3rd time, because it is crystal clear to me that you have no idea what's going on. Give me your one best point about what exactly I am wrong about !!!! I am waiting.

You can't do it? Then stop telling me I'm wrong if you have no idea what's going on.

Last edited by MarathonMan7; 05-13-2017 at 01:58 AM.
05-13-2017 , 04:43 AM
Ban hammer pleeeeeaaaaasssssseeeeeeeeee
05-13-2017 , 06:38 AM
Marathonman and others, no more talking about ****ty penny stocks that promote made up miracle drugs. Next person who does gets banned
05-13-2017 , 06:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarathonMan7
You're not as smart as my cousin says you are. That's the truth. Still a good guy though from what I remember. I am willing to listen to other answers, except so far everything everybody said is wrong. I've refuted everything. And you don't have the intelligence to explain to me why my logic is wrong, yet you still have the nerve to say that I'm wrong with zero supporting evidence. I'm gonna ask a 3rd time, because it is crystal clear to me that you have no idea what's going on. Give me your one best point about what exactly I am wrong about !!!! I am waiting.

You can't do it? Then stop telling me I'm wrong if you have no idea what's going on.
no more plz
05-13-2017 , 06:41 AM
I think retail is due for big second half comeback:

JCP, Sears and M all closed about 10% of store count in H1 this year. Means liquidation sales have been going on between Jan and June. No wonder same store sales data has been more **** than usual.

Basic thesis is people are extrapolating recent trends into infinity. I think second half will show close to flat comps. I averaged down on DDS yesterday
05-13-2017 , 06:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
I think retail is due for big second half comeback:

JCP, Sears and M all closed about 10% of store count in H1 this year. Means liquidation sales have been going on between Jan and June. No wonder same store sales data has been more **** than usual.

Basic thesis is people are extrapolating recent trends into infinity. I think second half will show close to flat comps. I averaged down on DDS yesterday
I like this line, but dont you think ecommerce has taken so much of their business that this is only a short term trade? AMZN and SHOP are just a few examples of why b&m is failing. As the boomer gen dies off, so will these (over time). I also think even if they ramp up their online presence they are too far behind the curve they will falter there too.
05-13-2017 , 08:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daChimp
I like this line, but dont you think ecommerce has taken so much of their business that this is only a short term trade? AMZN and SHOP are just a few examples of why b&m is failing. As the boomer gen dies off, so will these (over time). I also think even if they ramp up their online presence they are too far behind the curve they will falter there too.
sure, maybe its just a 6 month trade until they report Q3 earnings.

but in general I disagree with the notion that everything is going online. There was way too much retail expansion in the 2000's and now they need to right size their footprints. so the move is being amplified. But in the long run I can see most of them maintaining profit margins for a long time and shrinking footprint 2% a year. that still gets you a 10x fcf multiple which is a double for some of them
05-13-2017 , 09:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
sure, maybe its just a 6 month trade until they report Q3 earnings.

but in general I disagree with the notion that everything is going online. There was way too much retail expansion in the 2000's and now they need to right size their footprints. so the move is being amplified. But in the long run I can see most of them maintaining profit margins for a long time and shrinking footprint 2% a year. that still gets you a 10x fcf multiple which is a double for some of them
Thanks for your views
05-13-2017 , 11:05 AM
I hate to follow one penny stock with another, but stumbled across this one a while back, have kept my eye on it, and like the LT chart. I would appreciate any fundamental assessment of QTMM. I'm not and never have been invested in it, but looks to me like it may soon be a good time to spec on it.
05-13-2017 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
Marathonman and others, no more talking about ****ty penny stocks that promote made up miracle drugs. Next person who does gets banned
"made up miracle drugs" = false statement (as others have already confirmed)

Go ahead and ban me from this forum if you'd like. This will be my last and final post anyway, and it is not related to any specific company, just some general HELPFUL INFO.

And I clearly HAVE to explain this, since there are too many uninformed investors on this forum who will greatly benefit from learning this...

Pump and Dump = manipulating the stock price of a "bad" company higher in order to sell this bad stock at a high price (over intrinsic value)...this graph will be an upside down V shaped graph.

Dump and Pump (way less common but exists) = manipulating the stock price of a "good" company lower in order to buy this good stock at a low price (under intrinsic value). Timing is important in these schemes, and these schemes can only work if a company knows it has a legit product that will succeed. This graph is V shaped, and you want to figure out where the bottom is. There are certain companies out there that are especially good targets for this type of scheme.

http://www.extraordinaryinvestor.com...tock-scam.html
05-13-2017 , 02:12 PM
HOS now at its lowest point since being discusssed here. Just 2.40 a share.

Worth a gamble?
05-13-2017 , 02:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
HOS now at its lowest point since being discusssed here. Just 2.40 a share.

Worth a gamble?
Ive been eye balling this as a bounce trade, but not prepared to catch the falling knife. It has multiple bottom, so entry here isnt the end of the world.
05-13-2017 , 02:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
HOS now at its lowest point since being discusssed here. Just 2.40 a share.

Worth a gamble?
Only reason I can see for believing that it's bottomed are some minor technical divergences.

----

ASAP mentioned TGT, it made a nice hammer Friday, so might be good spot for a quick trade.
05-13-2017 , 03:05 PM
I haven't been active in this thread so I thought it's fair to just address some of the final comments and then let it be done.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarathonMan7
I am willing to listen to other answers, except so far everything everybody said is wrong. I've refuted everything.
Quite the opposite - you've had everything you've tried to argue refuted. Just cut your losses. The foolery on display in this thread has trended higher in correlation with your post count. It's not often that you find a thread debate in which not a single person comes to someones defense. In addition, experienced traders (my friend, original cousins friend) that have done this for much longer than you share the same sentiment as people in this thread despite never having read the thread prior.

You've got no proven track record of profitably trading stocks (fact). Others do. Smart people tend to try to learn from people more experienced and proven than them, as opposed to proclaiming everyone else is wrong and they're the special snowflake. You keep touting the same nonsense over and over for the past couple of years. If I or your cousin had taken your advice we'd be down money like you (for the record, I knew this was a joke after speaking about it for 5 minutes and told my friend the same). You've lost money with IMUN (fact), you've encouraged those around you to lose money as well, you've been KO'd in this thread, and keep chugging along with your head in the sand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarathonMan7
And you don't have the intelligence to explain to me why my logic is wrong, yet you still have the nerve to say that I'm wrong with zero supporting evidence. I'm gonna ask a 3rd time, because it is crystal clear to me that you have no idea what's going on. Give me your one best point about what exactly I am wrong about !!!! I am waiting.
I've already answered your question in my last post. The answer is: Everything you've posted. I already requested for you to try to pick which points you think you somehow made but I'm guessing you can't now because there's only so much stupidity a forum will allow before the banhammer comes out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarathonMan7
You can't do it? Then stop telling me I'm wrong if you have no idea what's going on.
I've already done it. And you're still wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarathonMan7
You're not as smart as my cousin says you are. That's the truth.
Smart enough to have sniffed out the sucker from a twenty minute Skype conversion though. Smart enough to avoid losing my life savings in poker while simultaneously throwing the rest all in on a penny stock? You expose yourself as a pseudo-intellectual with your incessant references to IQ and intelligence. I've never heard a smart person in my life go around proclaiming how smart they are to others. The fact that you do essentially suggests you want to be in this "smart peoples club" so bad but have no idea how to even fake it. Actual smart people don't hang their hat on just having a high IQ, there's more to it than that (not that you'd know). Your IQ won't do you any good after you've flushed the remainder of your net worth down the drain. For the second time. Get help and stop your madness.
05-13-2017 , 03:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
HOS now at its lowest point since being discusssed here. Just 2.40 a share.

Worth a gamble?
Have a read of this before you decide (the latest CC transcript):

https://seekingalpha.com/article/407...all-transcript

****ty operating environment, huge oversupply hence unprofitable rates, no sign of turnaround. You'd need to do some pretty deep analysis and know the industry fairly well to figure out the risk/reward. Even with deep analysis you can be dead wrong (ahnuld bought and recommended this around $20 I believe).

One of the problems is that debt is piling up. $1 billion due in 2019/2020. Losing money. With fracking, there's no "to the moon" scenario and I don't believe there ever was.

Buying this seems like a slightly -EV gamble to me, on oil spiking up due to geopolitics. If you don't get a recovery, HOS are bankrupt, despite their high on book assets net after liabilities of 1.3 billion. If you do get a recovery, it's still going to be a long struggle to get out of the debt hole. They're a billion in the hole, payable in 2-3 years, and the most profit they made even when oil was at huge highs was $150 million/year. Let that sink in.
05-13-2017 , 07:07 PM
Tidewater filing for Chapter 11 Wends.
Saudi's ramping up production and likely OPEC may not extend prod cut
Massive short float

Prob has more room to drop barring some type of major news/catalyst causing a squeeze.

Last edited by CharlieDontSurf; 05-13-2017 at 07:19 PM.
05-13-2017 , 10:04 PM
"Smart enough to avoid losing my life savings in poker"

Actually, I'm still bankrolled for the normal games I have been playing, $200/400 - $400/$800 mix games (even though I'm on the biggest downswing of my life, yes) and still up a **** load of money in my life. I'm currently averaging $303.73 per hour in all Commerce mix games (over about 5 month period). I was averaging over $500/hr at one point (for the first 3 months), but the downswing has crushed me, and I haven't had an interest in playing since.

You on the other hand, are an outstanding poker player (says my cousin), but are too pussy to player higher than $5/$10 NL, even though you're easily bankrolled for way higher.

"You expose yourself as a pseudo-intellectual with your incessant references to IQ and intelligence. I've never heard a smart person in my life go around proclaiming how smart they are to others."

Actually, what happened was 20 people called me an idiot (even though I'm actually correct, and you still don't see it) before asking questions about what they were unaware of. I explained to them that they shouldn't call me an idiot when they don't have the knowledge about the stock that I do and I am literally way smarter. I was simply offering an explanation to them why they shouldn't call me an idiot, because they're wrong in doing so. I only made reference to this ONE TIME, but got made fun of for it 20 times. That must've been what you were talking about. How many times can you be wrong?

What you still can't see is that everybody called me an idiot about everything, but when I brought up the point that the stock is a "dump and pump" and explained in detail what I was talking about, NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON HAS SAID THAT I AM WRONG ABOUT THIS. Do you understand why or do I need to explain this to you as well? You literally see 20 people calling me an idiot, don't understand that I still have to respond to all of these people, and think I'm wrong simply because I'm getting grilled RATHER THAN thinking I'm wrong because I couldn't answer a question that they asked me.

This is the reason why I had to ask you 3 times, "Ok, please let me know which question YOU THINK i didn't correctly answer yet." After asking you 3 times (now a 4th), you still didn't respond to me, but you did lie and say this..."I've already done it." Ok, so did the mod delete it? Why didn't I see it.? Please post again.

Instead you asked me to basically restate everything. In my mind, I'm thinking, why would I restate everything when he can just go back and read everything I wrote?

You literally are PIGGYBACKING on Toothsayer's suggestions INSTEAD of forming an opinion yourself, as everybody should do. The only possible thing that would make you agree with me is Toothsayer saying, "I agree with him now." What you don't realize is that Toothsayer or anybody else would never ever say they agree if they did end up getting convinced that I might be correct. Why would they? It is way more beneficial to them to spend more time doing complete due diligence, and then if they find they do agree, they make sure they buy as much stock as they want before publicly agreeing (and still they have zero reason to publicly agree). The funny thing is that you don't realize that, but you STILL came to this forum looking for advice INSTEAD OF TRYING TO FORMULATE AN OPINION ON YOUR OWN.


Mods...please ban me from this thread already so I can stop wasting my time (I literally can't stop on my own when people keep saying I'm wrong when I'm not).

Last edited by MarathonMan7; 05-13-2017 at 10:20 PM.
05-13-2017 , 10:07 PM
"And another thing!"
05-13-2017 , 10:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf
Tidewater filing for Chapter 11 Wends.
Saudi's ramping up production and likely OPEC may not extend prod cut
Massive short float

Prob has more room to drop barring some type of major news/catalyst causing a squeeze.
Given the billion+ in the hole, and the fact that they can't sell their assets in this market with boats piled up everywhere (and wouldn't want to anyway), I don't see how HOS avoid Chapter11. They have a billion dollars to pay back in 2-3 years, and if oil was $150 they still couldn't get anywhere near it.

The lenders will end up owning the company when they hit Chapter 11.

If anyone sees an out that I'm missing, by all means bring it, but it seems very unlikely. Oil calls would have much better return if you want to play an major oil price recovery thesis.
05-13-2017 , 11:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarathonMan7
Actually, I'm still bankrolled for the normal games I have been playing, $200/400 - $400/$800 mix games (even though I'm on the biggest downswing of my life, yes) and still up a **** load of money in my life. I'm currently averaging $303.73 per hour in all Commerce mix games (over about 5 month period). I was averaging over $500/hr at one point (for the first 3 months), but the downswing has crushed me, and I haven't had an interest in playing since.
You on the other hand, are an outstanding poker player (says my cousin), but are too pussy to player higher than $5/$10 NL, even though you're easily bankrolled for way higher.
I played poker professionally for about 8 years, grinding out probably 5+ millions of hands online, and winning in the 7 figures, playing stakes anywhere from 3/6nl-10/20nl, usually 8-12 tables. Are you sure this is a topic you'd like to start your magnificent refutations on? I'll refrain from hurling insults regarding your poker results because you have a gambling problem, but use that IQ of yours to realize comparing your poker results over the past 10 years to mine will not end well. And to give you a piece of poker advice, cherry-picking hourly's "before the downswing of my life" is just giving you a false sense of confidence to continue degen behavior. I'll leave it at that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarathonMan7
You literally are PIGGYBACKING on Toothsayer's suggestions INSTEAD of forming an opinion yourself
You posted information. Toothsayer posted rebuttals. I read the information posted and came to my own opinion based on the information presented who had a more clear and logical argument.

I agree with the notion as far as banning you.

Last edited by DaHardKnocks; 05-13-2017 at 11:55 PM.
05-14-2017 , 12:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarathonMan7
The only possible thing that would make you agree with me is Toothsayer saying, "I agree with him now." What you don't realize is that Toothsayer or anybody else would never ever say they agree if they did end up getting convinced that I might be correct. Why would they? It is way more beneficial to them to spend more time doing complete due diligence, and then if they find they do agree, they make sure they buy as much stock as they want before publicly agreeing (and still they have zero reason to publicly agree).
Their latest 10-Q just adds to the mountain of evidence that this is nonsense. You falsely claimed that there will be no more secondaries and toxic debt; in reality they have 2 months cash in the bank, zero assets, and they predict this in their 10-Q out a few days ago:

Quote:
The Company has incurred significant net losses since inception and has relied on its ability to fund its operations through private equity financings. Management expects operating losses and negative cash flows to continue at more significant levels in the future.
Quote:
Based on the Company’s operating plan, existing working capital at March 31, 2017 was not sufficient to meet the cash requirements to fund planned operations through March 31, 2018 without additional sources of cash. These conditions raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.
The company itself disagrees with your opinion. Without more dilution, they go under. It's one thing to be flowery and hyped up in press releases, but if they do that in the 10-Q filing, people can sue them for security fraud.

Let's say everything is 100% legit with this company, and they genuinely intend to start selling the drug. Their long history of fake PR and timelines makes this latest hype quite unlikely to come to pass. And it's not going to be a big seller; the drug is worthless. That bit is inarguable. You need marketing money to push this kind of crap and they're broke. Perhaps their partner in Nigeria has it. I doubt it.

Finally, no one here is buying this crap. We've gone quiet because you've gone off the deep end, seeing some conspiracy to "dump and pump" in five years of failed/lying press releases. Yeah, that's exactly what someone does when they're sitting on a wonder drug - put out fake positive press releases for years to send the stock lower. Even you know this theory is out there and you're grasping at straws, which is why you were afraid to say it. A seed of sanity remains.

Anyway. No one here is buying; your belief that we've gone quiet for that reason is just the latest hope-grab of your gambling addiction and emotional investment. Some of us have not insubstantial money; the volume is so absurdly low on this stock - less than $20K/day - that you would see the effects immediately of anyone here buying up more than a trivial amount.

You need to disentangle your emotional/intellectual investment in this company with your actual investment. They overlap and it's not healthy. It's not healthy whether you're right or wrong on this company.

You're not selling - you're convinced that it's real, and you will never pass up the chance. But why all the hype? Why all the wasted time? If you're not selling then just hold and forget about it and go and do something else. Nothing you can do is going to affect it anyway...drugs will either sell or they won't, the company will either make profit and go up or it won't.

Here's how a sane investment works, even the greatest one in the world: You put your money in. You forget about it and go live your life, rather than turning IMUN into your girlfriend and life. Unless you're trying to pump it and offload, why all the ****ing hype and nonsense? You've formed your opinion, you've shoved your money in; for your mental health and the sake of relations with your family friends, just ****ing let it go. Go and do something else with your time rather than obsess about IMUN.

If that's impossible, why don't you take a few days off? Don't think about IMUN, don't post about it, don't talk about it, don't read about it. Just go and do something else. Refresh your mind. If you're unable to do that, it's rolled gold evidence that you have a problem you need to work on.

I apologize for calling you an idiot. I've known plenty of capable, stable people people who get caught up penny stock madness and lose a lot of money along with their minds. The press releases and PR is designed to do that to you. Fleecing suckers is a billion dollar industry. Whatever happens, it's just money. You claiim to be able to make $300/hour, so you shouldn't care that much. Walk away for a while from this thread, from the other board you post at, and prove to us you're not crazy.
05-14-2017 , 08:59 AM
the truth

      
m