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2017 Trading Thread 2017 Trading Thread

04-30-2017 , 07:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hapaboii
>You see a gap up in the morning. Stock rises excessively mid day. There's 15-30 mins left before close. What do you do?

@smokey, so you think you've identified a profitable setup, great. from what you've provided, no one here can tell you whether or not it works. it's too vague. if you expressed the strategy algorithmically, what would be the entry and exit criteria? there are a handful of parameters you'd need to specify and questions you'd need to flesh out, such as what % threshold qualifies as a gap up, what % gain from open qualifies as an excessive intraday rise, when is the entry decision time (is it a specific clock time e.g. 15:30:00, or constrained by clock time + event time? e.g. any time between 15:30:00 and 15:45:00 where XYZ occurs/becomes true), does it make a difference if the HOD occurred early in the day, does it make a different if the price 30m before the close isn't near the HOD, are exits always on close, do you use a stoploss, is the setup valid for all symbols or only a subset, etc.

once you come up with all the details and express them algorithmically, code it up and simulate it. try to account for spreads and market impact. if you are taking on both entry and exit, the trade should be easier to model. this gives you the best chance of assessing whether you've found a real alpha.

hope this helps.
You're right, I need to put in more effort with backtesting and setting actual parameters for the trade rather than speaking in generalizations. Because you're right, I don't know if it's 15:30 or 15:45, and I think it depends a lot on market sentiment. I usually wait for an indication that the selloff is beginning, and scale in up to the close.

Unfortunately for me, i'm not a professional and trade rather irregularly from work. Clearly not the most efficient way to make money in the short term. Even with the limited information and time I have there still seems like there's interday opportunities to make money as a retail investor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Rarely a truer statement has been made. Fees, spread, and unavoidably slower reaction times for retail traders guarantee this is the case.
I mean this is the "Trading" thread right? We have plenty of other threads on index funds and value investing, what are we supposed to be talking about in here other than good entry/exit opportunities, ideas etc.

I would agree that slower reaction times is an absolute killer for me in terms of things that i'm missing, Fees and spread aren't as imposing unless you're talking thousands of shares on 1-2 penny moves or something.
04-30-2017 , 10:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear
You're right, I need to put in more effort with backtesting and setting actual parameters for the trade rather than speaking in generalizations.
You can only do so much backtesting a discretionary trading style that you have. Just write notes for every trade you make in excel that includes the reason for entry and exit. Over time you'll see what setups work and ones that are a waste.
05-01-2017 , 12:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smokey_The_Bear
I mean this is the "Trading" thread right? We have plenty of other threads on index funds and value investing, what are we supposed to be talking about in here other than good entry/exit opportunities, ideas etc.
I trade options on short time frames (minutes to hours) and have done so for years. JB has a variety of strategies including algos and sometimes options. He makes 200%/year.

Yet we made the statements we made.
Quote:
I would agree that slower reaction times is an absolute killer for me in terms of things that i'm missing, Fees and spread aren't as imposing unless you're talking thousands of shares on 1-2 penny moves or something.
Fees and spread are death and the main reason that nearly all short term trades are -EV. That most retails don't see that is a good indication they don't understand the EV of trading or the long term in trading.
05-01-2017 , 12:38 PM
Most retail is crushing it right now because they are mostly in indices and ETFs in fairness. Very small % (both in number of participants & $) will ever use options. It's the hedge funds that are getting destroyed, their fee structures have to dramatically change going forward. Retail brokers are now going through price wars too, it's never been better for the consumer. This won't always be the case clearly but it's a great time if you want to express a direction. Tons of liquidity everywhere.
05-02-2017 , 11:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Big beat on Twitter. The TWTR bulls are as dopey, mindless and enthusiastic as the TSLA bulls...decent short percentage too. Probably worth buying here for a run. Currently $16.50.

Not a super high probability spot but I think it's certainly quite +EV.
This was a really nice call, these sentiment reversal plays can provide the most powerful post ER moves. Mark Cuban providing a nice exit point here above $18.
05-02-2017 , 02:02 PM
Ok stock marker, you have my attention.

When we going long AMD guys? In the 9's?
05-02-2017 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
Ok stock marker, you have my attention.

When we going long AMD guys? In the 9's?
I've been short for weeks and haven't covered except for selling a portion of my puts at the open. Not sure why you'd want to go long when the parabolic run is clearly part of the past now. Great sign for me was how it was lagging in the past couple of weeks while the Nasdaq keeps hitting record highs. Tells me that institutions were dumping onto dumb money super late to the name.
05-02-2017 , 02:11 PM
Huge buyer ($3m+) of next week's 98 puts for NVDA this morning, looks like more pain is on the way in the short term.
05-02-2017 , 02:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
I've been short for weeks and haven't covered except for selling a portion of my puts at the open. Not sure why you'd want to go long when the parabolic run is clearly part of the past now. Great sign for me was how it was lagging in the past couple of weeks while the Nasdaq keeps hitting record highs. Tells me that institutions were dumping onto dumb money super late to the name.
I still like the sector and I like $9 as a spot to start to build a position. But that may be more for the value thread all things considered.
05-02-2017 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
I still like the sector and I like $9 as a spot to start to build a position. But that may be more for the value thread all things considered.
Dude almost everything is expensive short term, don't let them fool you otherwise. There is obviously a point to buy but that's not today even for a trade. Big money is unloading and there are a ton of late funds and retail to this name specifically.
05-02-2017 , 02:30 PM
What has been working for me on NVDA is ratio 100/110 put spreads where I am selling in general 3x 100s to finance the 110 but given this unload from AMD I think it's very likely I'll cover a decent portions of those before EOW.
05-02-2017 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Huge buyer ($3m+) of next week's 98 puts for NVDA this morning, looks like more pain is on the way in the short term.
So this is sector weakness based on what AMD reported? I don't really follow semis except for MU.

Nice trade on AMD.
05-02-2017 , 02:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
So this is sector weakness based on what AMD reported? I don't really follow semis except for MU.

Nice trade on AMD.
Sector is down marginally, not too bad as you expect given market cap can't move it too much. In fact, INTC is up solidly though still down from its earnings gap a few days ago. MU is a monster that has seen relentless institutional call buying since the low teens. Really mad I've been missing out on it too.
05-02-2017 , 04:21 PM
low content popcorn day is unreal. TWLO is getting PUMPED.
05-02-2017 , 04:27 PM
FSLR up a bunch finally
05-02-2017 , 04:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigt2k4
FSLR up a bunch finally
Lots of short term options activity leading into this one, really nice bounce off oversold levels.
05-03-2017 , 03:44 AM
Ive been swing trading SHOP and sold off all excess shares from my core position heading into earnings. (I despise the earnings swings).

Ofc they crushed it and guided higher... then the stock dumped PM. I was lucky enough to read through that dump and topped off core position for a nice 11% unrealized gains.

Now the challenge is where do go, what to do. The transcript looks amazing and plenty of growth. Keeping all the excess shares leaves little liquidity to make other plays.

Thoughts?

Im leaning on increasing core holdings by 20%, and selling off excess as analysts increase their recommendations (to BUY-- $90-$100).

Sent from my ASUS_Z010D using Tapatalk
05-03-2017 , 09:48 AM
I bought FSLR near the open @ 33.35.
05-03-2017 , 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cicakman
Now Verizon blasting. Att has 5 days to respond.
Lmao, $155 & another double digit gainer. Everyone has been wrong on this one it seems like.
05-03-2017 , 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Lmao, $155 & another double digit gainer. Everyone has been wrong on this one it seems like.
Thoughts of the loser of this bidding war looking elsewhere... like GSAT?

Sent from my ASUS_Z010D using Tapatalk
05-03-2017 , 11:11 AM
ESES has a $50 million contract with a $15 million market cap? Hold overnight for a gapup tomoz?
05-03-2017 , 11:33 AM
FLT is a Citron report. Out a few days ago. Still more downside. Buy stop on TER 36.05
05-03-2017 , 12:05 PM
http://www.citronresearch.com/citron...dy-cover-mode/
This was literally out last week and the stock dropped 10% today. Just happened to see this over the weekend on citrons twitter.
05-03-2017 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Lmao, $155 & another double digit gainer. Everyone has been wrong on this one it seems like.
Please
05-03-2017 , 12:54 PM
Don't usually follow USO re: energy and oil, however... Player buys 140k $9.5 June puts for $.27. Has been very weak already the last couple of weeks.

      
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