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Old 04-17-2017, 05:52 AM   #701
rafiki
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by LittleGoliath View Post
I'm very interested how the markets will react on the past/current events with the US & North-Korea on tuesday (and all the other geopolotical turmoil). It seems likely a (big) correction is right around the corner, no?
So far every time any of us has said this (going back to Greece now which is what, 4 years ago?), it was either a head fake intraday or a buy the dip scenario. Obviously at some point someone is going to be right. But the last half dozen times it's always been a chance to buy.
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Old 04-17-2017, 12:54 PM   #702
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

STRP is fascinating, to be against this name likely ended a few careers given how much of the float was short. Bidding war between AT&T & Verizon seems insane to me but then again so do a lot of the recent M&A speculation. From a trading standpoint, we should expect this talk to continue especially given rates remain low and growth is difficult to find.
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Old 04-17-2017, 12:59 PM   #703
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by rafiki View Post
So far every time any of us has said this (going back to Greece now which is what, 4 years ago?), it was either a head fake intraday or a buy the dip scenario. Obviously at some point someone is going to be right. But the last half dozen times it's always been a chance to buy.
Lol we're a few percent off ATHs, from an index standpoint it's been a nothing burger so far. Talk to me when the VIX holds over 20 for more than five seconds.
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Old 04-17-2017, 01:32 PM   #704
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by ASAP17 View Post
STRP is fascinating, to be against this name likely ended a few careers given how much of the float was short. Bidding war between AT&T & Verizon seems insane to me but then again so do a lot of the recent M&A speculation. From a trading standpoint, we should expect this talk to continue especially given rates remain low and growth is difficult to find.
Please
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Old 04-17-2017, 05:44 PM   #705
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Lol we're a few percent off ATHs, from an index standpoint it's been a nothing burger so far. Talk to me when the VIX holds over 20 for more than five seconds.
I think we're agreeing
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Old 04-17-2017, 05:54 PM   #706
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

The implied move for NFLX was significantly lower than what it had been in the previous few years of ERs. Another name shorts keep hitting brick walls, that AH snapback is pretty disheartening especially if you didn't sell any options to hedge.
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Old 04-17-2017, 07:42 PM   #707
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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eh, vix is 16 so we're still a long way from any pure fear accumulating

though i do think in this environment (more hft, more regulation) the panic is going to come in a way that we haven't seen before.

usually that fear comes in a one-off limit down futures event (august china deval, brexit, trump) but rarely sustains and then things re-correct. i wonder what happens when we see a sustained bear market. maybe a lot more limit days, or maybe the marketmakers just adjust to whatever the new normal is.
What do you mean more regulation?
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Old 04-19-2017, 10:11 AM   #708
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

I think EMH.VN (emerald health) has over-corrected because of R/S news. Coupled with the fact that it looks to be at a higher low I think this may be about to pop. Target $2.
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Old 04-19-2017, 03:36 PM   #709
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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The implied move for NFLX was significantly lower than what it had been in the previous few years of ERs. Another name shorts keep hitting brick walls, that AH snapback is pretty disheartening especially if you didn't sell any options to hedge.
Weren't there a few NFLX $150 or $75 first bets on here? Touched $149.90 in the AH after ER & now has violated the lows breached in the initial move down. Would be pretty hilarious if that becomes the short term top...
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Old 04-19-2017, 04:38 PM   #710
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

GS, IBM and JNJ all missing huge within 24 hours.

Sign of things to come? These companies don't seem very decoupled from the overall economy.
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Old 04-20-2017, 01:53 PM   #711
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

I was thinking of grabbing some ASPS... cough.
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:07 PM   #712
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

I'm short TSLA again at $303 on the recall news. Hoping to see this shed ~5% over the next week. Stop at $312.
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:08 PM   #713
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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I was thinking of grabbing some ASPS... cough.
Yea me too if you're talking about puts. Same with OCN.
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Old 04-20-2017, 02:38 PM   #714
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Yeah I had been kicking myself for not following you guys w/ ASPS days ago. Bought a bunch of stock when I posted around 27 and sold for 29
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Old 04-20-2017, 07:00 PM   #715
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

So.

I had a long position in CLF this afternoon. I thought I closed it out at the bell, but I inadvertently doubled my position. I'm now long 6000 shares of CLF into tomorrow. I don't like the overnight hold whatsoever, this is not a good looking chart, close, or stock i'd want to hold like this overnight. pretty big gamble for me.

Gap up one time?
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Old 04-20-2017, 10:02 PM   #716
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

GL
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Old 04-21-2017, 07:37 AM   #717
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Remember the shipping bonanza of 2016? Lol check DCIX now. Man you could have shorted these to 0
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Old 04-21-2017, 07:58 AM   #718
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Yeah I lost a third of my DRYS gains following DRYS down their 4 dilutions since then. Binking a few shares during its rise funded a lot of bad decisions this year. SALT and SB still seem ok if anyone's dying to stick with the industry for some reason. Also funny when I see ppl talk about it on msg boards and they're like wuz dis really wurth 200k!?

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Old 04-21-2017, 10:29 AM   #719
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Amaya keeps seeming to go up quietly.. No news, what's up with that?
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Old 04-24-2017, 02:02 PM   #720
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Am i wrong here , that the market is not going to go down on fiscal budget/debt ceiling scenario ? I know im a perma bear, but i was expecting a little fear this week, with that coming to the table soon and I figured an impasse was most likely, with current congress makeup.. well, with that being said, i did buy spy/nke puts today
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Old 04-24-2017, 03:49 PM   #721
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Wouldn't advise anyone to buy spy puts in these upcoming 2 weeks. The France election upside is gonna keep it rolling at least until after Macron is elected imho. But hey good luck man.
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Old 04-24-2017, 04:35 PM   #722
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Let's say I want to buy some stock and I know he's going to split soon. Is there any advantage waiting for them to split or id be better just buy them now.
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Old 04-24-2017, 04:57 PM   #723
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Wouldn't advise anyone to buy spy puts in these upcoming 2 weeks. The France election upside is gonna keep it rolling at least until after Macron is elected imho. But hey good luck man.
Yeah I'm not seeing an obvious trade short. But still. Government shutdown is coming up. If Trump can't even get his meagre wall funding through, it doesn't say much good about his bigger ambitions. I suspect Trump will fold fairly quickly on that demand, but I'm not sure that's a positive either.

US economic data has been disappointing the last week. Earnings season is underway. I'm not sure the French election matters that much.

Some traders think the post Trump surge is mostly global central bank money going into US stocks.That's the only angle I can see where Le Pen's impending defeat keeps things up by itself.
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Old 04-24-2017, 05:00 PM   #724
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW View Post
Am i wrong here , that the market is not going to go down on fiscal budget/debt ceiling scenario ? I know im a perma bear, but i was expecting a little fear this week, with that coming to the table soon and I figured an impasse was most likely, with current congress makeup.. well, with that being said, i did buy spy/nke puts today
trumps tax talk gets everyone really excited. volatility got completely sucked out of the market today. if oil stops falling, its going to be a really rough time for bears imo

personally i would wait for trump to trump the market with tax talk before buying puts
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Old 04-24-2017, 06:16 PM   #725
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

ESRX weeklies (obviously puts) had no bids below $60 at closing. Some huge money changing hands tomorrow.
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