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2017 Trading Thread 2017 Trading Thread

02-28-2017 , 10:16 AM
Sustainable for a few years, sure. 10 years? 10 years is a long time in tech, and Apple lack the moats and innovation of companies like Microsoft. 10 years ago, Blackberry and Nokia were king of the world. Easy to forget, but true.

And we're not even talking about Apple going bankrupt. They simply have to have their insane and unusual profit margins cut in half to 20%, and they become ridiculously overvalued. Given that they're a high end luxury item, the next recession will also do this. Apple have never gone through a recession - they started gaining small phone market share at the end of the GFC. Their market share and profit margins have been growing in to a robust bull and recovering global economies.

The price is deranged.
02-28-2017 , 11:16 AM
All the clutter aside. Ended up buying more AAPL today and will hold for awhile. Looks cheap to me here and really doesn't matter if its at a high. I just think its going higher and that is all that matters.
02-28-2017 , 11:23 AM
Don't get me wrong I personally would never buy it anywhere near these levels. I was just going through Berkshire's thought process. I think they probably bought it mostly when the stock was $90-100ish though

I do think it's sustainable for a while. Go to the major cities in the world and it's like everyone has iPhone. I don't think a recession will effect their decision to upgrade their iphone for $100-200 every couple years or it's included in most peoples plans they get for smart phones. It's a cheap luxury good.
02-28-2017 , 11:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffg576
All the clutter aside. Ended up buying more AAPL today and will hold for awhile. Looks cheap to me here and really doesn't matter if its at a high. I just think its going higher and that is all that matters.
$137.43. Good luck man, good luck.
02-28-2017 , 01:06 PM
At some point how much more can you upgrade?

Cook seems like your basic cookie cutter MBA type with no real vision for what to do with that 200B.

I think TS is probably right that they can keep people upgrading for a few more years but eventually these phones just do everything you want them to do. I got the 6 a few years ago and have no desire to upgrade.

I'm sure emerging markets keep them afloat for a few more years too but in general seems like an awfully frothy price to pay.
02-28-2017 , 01:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
At some point how much more can you upgrade?
Lol. You sound like the people who thought phones were done advancing when Nokia phones were small enough that making them smaller stopped making sense.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
02-28-2017 , 01:49 PM
Perhaps, like I said I haven't upgraded in 2 years.
02-28-2017 , 01:51 PM
The fact that you say that as if 2 years is a long time shows how fast stuff is advancing

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk
02-28-2017 , 02:04 PM
so,, are there any plays you guys think could be made before the donald's speech takes place? it seems like he will do a spend spend spend , on defense + infrastructure and cut back on social services etc,, are any stocks/etf's here worth a play? he will probably mention HRB again , but that is kinda of expected..
02-28-2017 , 03:09 PM
TGT worst day in 18 years, DKS reports BMO March 7 Myrna.
02-28-2017 , 11:00 PM
DPZ usually follows through the next day after earnings. They are still simply killing the hut and PZZA. Probably even a great pairs trade long DPZ short PZZA or YUM
03-01-2017 , 11:43 AM
Rate hikes, politics, eurozone failures, etc... The markets have to slow down at some point right? April showers on the horizon?
03-01-2017 , 12:13 PM
The only showers right now are golden showers - GDX is dropping - from Trump on the head of the bears.
03-01-2017 , 12:42 PM
Full on robusto mode continues, PRTA being especially nice to me last few days.

Last edited by SootedPowa; 03-01-2017 at 12:43 PM. Reason: It's not my pick, using an active fund holding near 20% in it
03-01-2017 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
The only showers right now are golden showers - GDX is dropping - from Trump on the head of the bears.
bullish GDX - Picks up steam late spring/early summer before declining again through the winter months.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but... Trump is the master of debt and the US has never faced such indebtedness. Is he the perfect scapegoat for a credit default that was actually planned/caused by the previous administrations?
03-01-2017 , 03:43 PM
SNAP IPO tomorrow, probably going to go nuts given the environment. Fundamentals won't matter for a while esp before the lockup expires and the float remains pretty small.
03-01-2017 , 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
SNAP IPO tomorrow, probably going to go nuts given the environment. Fundamentals won't matter for a while esp before the lockup expires and the float remains pretty small.
unlimited advertisement dollars yo
03-01-2017 , 03:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
SNAP IPO tomorrow
Disregarding the way the market is at the moment, doesn't Clayton's post here http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...13&postcount=2 tell the reality?

Quote:
"We have incurred operating losses in the past, expect to incur operating losses in the future, and may never achieve or maintain profitability," the filing said.
I mean I am old enough to properly remember the dot com run up and resulting stinker of a crash. This IPO seems close to the ridiculousness that was going on back them.
03-01-2017 , 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SootedPowa
Disregarding the way the market is at the moment, doesn't Clayton's post here http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...13&postcount=2 tell the reality?



I mean I am old enough to properly remember the dot com run up and resulting stinker of a crash. This IPO seems close to the ridiculousness that was going on back them.
yet. people will come out being billionaires on this move (at least on paper), what a scam..
03-01-2017 , 04:42 PM
Out today:
Quote:
In a regulatory filing, Valeant disclosed that on or about September 16, 2016, the company received an investigative subpoena from the California Department of Insurance. The materials requested include documents concerning the company's former relationship with Philidor and certain California-based pharmacies, the marketing and distribution of its products in California, the billing of insurers for its products being used by California residents, and other matters. Also, on May 4, 2016, Bausch & Lomb International received from the Office of the California Insurance Commissioner an administrative subpoena to produce books, records and documents. On September 1, 2016, a revised and corrected subpoena, issued to B&L Inc., was received naming that entity in place of B&L International and seeking additional books records and documents. The requested books, records and documents are being requested in connection with an investigation by the California Department of Insurance and relate to, among other things, consulting agreements and financial arrangements between B&L and healthcare professionals in California, the provision of ocular equipment, including the Victus femtosecond laser platform, by B&L to healthcare professionals in California and prescribing data for prescriptions written by healthcare professionals in California for certain of B&L's products, including the Crystalens, Lotemax, Besivance and Prolensa. The company said it is cooperating with the investigations, adding that it "cannot predict the outcome or the duration of this investigation or any other legal proceedings or any enforcement actions or other remedies that may be imposed."
And also this:
Quote:
The SEC is conducting a formal investigation into possible securities law violations by Salix relating to disclosures by Salix of inventory amounts in the distribution channel and related issues in press releases, on analyst calls and in Salix's various SEC filings
gg Valeant. It was fun while it lasted.
03-01-2017 , 04:45 PM
The same cuck money that was buying at $100 when it was obvious it was finished, is now buying at $13. It's over. Short to zero.

Only real risk is buyout, but the debt a buyer would take on is so large and the regulatory problems on top of that now mean it's hard to imagine anyone taking it on.
03-01-2017 , 06:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
yet. people will come out being billionaires on this move (at least on paper), what a scam..
That is standard boiler plate language for a growth stock filing.
03-01-2017 , 06:19 PM
Gonna see a happy Rafiki at the open tomorrow morning for NTS.V methinks. On the earnings call now, see how she goes. But this is the single biggest holding I've ever had by a monster factor, thanks to Ahnuld for pointing it out initially. These micro caps give up a lot of information too (you can just write the investors rep for ridiculous info), I think I'm probably going to try and expand my trading to include more of them.

Ended up being a really bad Q, and the stock tanked going into earnings because of anticipated dilution risk. And then today they announce a big 6 year contract that bails them out huge. Announced expansion as a result. Feel for the people who sold this past week. That's gotta suck.
03-01-2017 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
I think TS is probably right that they can keep people upgrading for a few more years but eventually these phones just do everything you want them to do. I got the 6 a few years ago and have no desire to upgrade.
I remember thinking there's nothing more Apple could do after the ipod mini. I feel like you can't really call a top on the advancement of technology.
03-01-2017 , 07:50 PM
PAH has been on a tear since first mentioning it. Still think it could be worth 16-18

      
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