Hilarious that someone who never posts any trades has the balls to say anything in here. I expected some sort of comment just because of how pathetic his presence is on this forum. It was a bad trade, learn from it and move on to the next.

I've posted heaps of real-time trades, as well as opinions. You've even learned from some. And I didn't say anything, I quoted you.
How is my presence pathetic? I don't understand. I trade derivatives. I post. That's kind of what people do in this forum.
Indeed. Just giving you a taste of your own medicine. Using your own words.

The area it was consolidating at the past month is close to where it hit premarket on ER last May (under $60). It also is the same area it broke out of in the middle of 2014 so there was some longer term technical support. Decent ITM call buys leading up to ER and some put selling to support it, plus the name has gotten really cheap but again fighting a trend in a sector struggling while the market is tearing higher is playing with fire.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I would prefer more evidence of which direction it's going to take from here. Looks like a potential double/triple top, OTOH it broke a mild downtrend and could break out to new ATH. It seems like it should tip its hand relatively soon.

Edit: Today's open may be the evidence needed.

Doing great on RIG, bought back in at $13.41 after dumping my shares at $16.14 4Q2016.

But getting crushed on CHK. I've got my cost basis down to $7.31 a share, but am still getting pounded. Just can't figure this stock out.

Interesting how much NVDA is crashing on a single downgrade from Nomura... granted it retraced $10 from the high set pre ER a couple weeks ago. Pretty key to hold $100 or low $90s is next, already traded it's avg daily volume in the first 90 minutes.

So far, so good on the short - may setup trailing stop to lock in profits. My March 17 $245 puts are up 42%, the 305 Mar17 calls are worthless as of today. Don't know how much of today's movement is the NYT article that TS pointed out in the TSLA thread vs folks realizing there was no magic revelation yesterday that wasn't already anticipated. Would love to see some volume selling happen today and carry through tomorrow though as that may reverse the momentum that built up into this earnings. I have weekly $250 puts that may get close if today's selling carries into tomorrow.

Stopped out at $5.49 a share, just to jump back in at $5.435

New stop is set at $5.38


This one was absolutely brutal on me.

Looks like Buffett doubled his shares in AAPL in the last 2 months. Was thinking of selling but will hold on now

Bufffett is an idiot who underperforms the market in the new economy. When even he's buying the bull****, you sell. If he had a handle on Apple, he would have bought two years ago, not at all time highs.

He didn't buy at ATHs & his fund has outperformed the S&P since inception and during most years. I'd rather listen to him than you lol.

Guy got B of A to write him essentially an absurdly cheap amount of calls (warrants he can exercise up to September 2021 plus a 6% dividend) to help them during the recession but yeah he's an idiot. $5b investment is now worth $18.5b. Stuck firm on IBM while getting mocked and collecting that nice yield, up almost 50% off the lows beginning of last year. Making waves in M&A with 3G, could go on and on but the point is who are you to call him an idiot? Guy is a legend. Learning from others especially people who have been successful for decades is what it's all about.

Buffett is an idiot in the new world. Buying IBM and Apple at the highs just shows it. He's so far out of his depth it's ridiculous.

By the way, how has his return been since 2000, even with his enormous structural advantages that most don't have access to?

He has done terribly on his pure stock picks and he is a moron at stock picking. He's a genius at finding and holding good value businesses bought outside the stock market, and at successfully employing leverage. I don't doubt he's capable of structuring other trades to his advantage (like some derivatives), but outside of that he has shown zero competence, and in fact incompetence.

He has outperformed the broader market over the last year, 5 years and 10 years. I didn't bother to look at other time horizons, but I assume that this "new economy" you speak of falls somewhere into one of those timeframes.

BRKA/B is ahead of SPY on almost every timeframe. It's not just the last year. He's made a ton since the election, just typical nonsense.

Again, you're confusing the performance of Berkshire - which has enormous structural advantages going back decades, including from a massive insurance float and major privately held companies - with his public stock picks (i.e. which anyone else can buy in the open market) in the last decade, which have been a sad joke. The latter is what I'm talking about. Buffett cannot pick stocks since the early 2000s and he is particularly horrible at picking tech stocks.

Just typical low comprehension nonsense from low-rent Buffett fanbois.

Have you actually looked at the numbers? I am fairly sure that whether his picks have beaten or missed the broad market returns is an empirical question that has a calculable answer.

I, for one, have not.

Buffett's a moron/cuck when it comes to tech and stock picking.



It's not really debatable. His purchase of Apple here was idiotic. I love how all you jump on his idiot purchase because Buffett!!. It's absurd. If he's buying an old world business, I listen intently. If he's buying tech, I probably fade the loser. He has no idea what he's doing.

I'd like to think most of it is from scale. Seems like Berkshire is mostly centered around deferring capital gains. Own a **** ton of KO is probably not a great trade, but it's better to collect the divs rather than reallocate and pay capital gains.

See how easy it is to post actual numbers? Empirical questions demand empirical answers.

But, I am pretty sure it was exactly one* guy who was "Was thinking of selling but will hold on now." Hardly seems the stuff of an "all you jump."

*I double checked my counting, and it turned out that it was exactly one guy. The other guy who (I assume you must be twins**) just likes yelling at you.

**or perhaps just married

BM: You're welcome.
Insurance float leverage + avoiding capital gains is sufficient to account for Berkshire's success. It becomes a big yawn when you realize that.

And that graph isn't his whole business, it's his tech stock picks. They're horrible, as bad as can be.

It's like when Trump brags about how well the market is doing. If he's smart, he'll time his tweets when he believes the market is at its peak.

Reading between the lines, it seems Buffet is done buying AAPL for now, so that's one buyer out of the way. Plus, the market is saturated with iPhone users, i.e. there's very little room for growth. And if he's not buying for growth, i.e. the "product stickiness" as he mentions, then I also don't see it as a good income stock either, at least at the current yield. Maybe he's attracted to the buybacks?

Warren Buffet said in the past with IBM, that he expects lots of buybacks that will increase his percentage of the company and dividend increases year after year. I think I read somewhere he made close to 2B in dividends already off IBM.

I'm guessing with apple having over 200billion in cash he expects something similar.

Pay $720 billion for $200 billion in cash seems a bit weird. Even if they throw in $50 billion/year in profit, something which probably isn't sustainable in the long run.

I think at these prices the odds of getting even the principle back on your investment (over the long run, buying the whole company) is sub 75%, which is terrible in a market that pays 10%/year reliably if you buy the index.

$50 billion/year in profit so he's paying $500 billion for the main business if you minus the cash. At 10x earnings doesn't seem that crazy to me. I'm guessing he thinks Apple has a moat that customers will keep coming back for. I think he probably is right.

I keep telling myself to just get some other cheaper phone, but keep getting new iphones pretty much just because all my friends/family have it. It's easy to imessage/facetime/share pictures-vdieos/etc. Given most people get them with 2 year plans/upgrades it seems sustainable if the 7 is doing this good without much upgrades.