I sold my rotted bad of GLBS about 10 seconds before it exploded. Got a tiny bit of it on the way up and have sold it already out of spite. Ptuh.

WEED went as expected and my small gambles on DRYS continue to pay off. Keeping a tiny chunk of DRYS overnight purely as a lottery.

Not a financial professional/ tax advisor but VNR seems to be structured as a pass-through entity meaning that taxes aren't assessed at a corporate level but passed through to your personal return (no double taxation), K-1 vs. 1099...

There is a relatively new seeking alpha article on the bankruptcy speculating that common unit holders may get some warrants in the new company but will prob get nothing, also that unit holders will prob get hit with cancelation of debt income (he speculates up to $3.30 per unit).

If your not familiar with the term I would look it up, I had no clue that you could be taxed on "earnings" that you never realized (yes I get that debt forgiveness is a form of earnings and due to the pass-through structure lol unit holders) until I was looking at FELP last year (prob get a small tax bill for that).

2/7/2017 (post Feb FOMC & NFP). Markets expecting more dovish Fed.

50-75bps (0 hikes)
6.7% (+1.0%)

75-100bps (1 hikes)
25.4% (+2.6%)

100-125bps (2 hikes)
35.2% (+1.3%)

125-150bps (3 hikes)
23.0% (-2.0%)

150-175bps (4 hikes)
8.00% (-2.0%)

>175bps (5+ hikes)
1.8% (-0.8%)


March rate hike dropped to 8.9% from 20.3%.
At least 1 hike by May at 28.3%
At least 1 hike by June at 64.7%

I don't want to be THAT GUY, but I don't think the market is pricing in enough black swans right now. There's obviously money to be made here to the upside in a lot of sectors, but I'd be looking to protect myself in 2017 too. I'm not one of the ZOMG ATTACK THE 7 people. But the wave of nationalism and guarding borders combined with an America that probably doesn't want to play peace keeper anymore creates setups in a lot of highly contested regions that have been waiting since the 80's and 90's to tear each other to pieces again. So it's not that I'm looking to go net short, but I'm looking to be cautious this year again and really pick my spots.

Yeah. Tesla, Netflix and others are in the "any bad news and I get much richer" category now. These will collapse so fast once the market turns or something bad hits. Need to wait until it does however.

Made a little bit on NAKD and DRYS overnight. Sold the gap nicely.

Marijuana stocks like WEED continue to show signs of a bullish reversal. In with that and APH after buying in on the dip - they're also about to get upgraded to the TSX. My gf's OGI shares are also finally paying off.

Looking more for the long term holds now for retirement off to work I go

Anyone have a thought on TWLO earnings? I think the potential for a disaster is higher than people think.

Up to 1.38, unreal

Shorted it after hours yesterday and sold near the open cuz I'm scurrrred. Got back in later today with some June $2.50 puts, so I'm essentially short the stock but protected if it goes nuts.

79M shares today with only 67M total shares outstanding. Hoping this is just naive algos/technical traders not knowing what to do with the massive dividend.

Anyone have any thoughts on the fundamentals?

I tried to short but my broker cancelled it, they couldn't find shares to borrow.

The change is volume after the dividend is nuts, even if you go back it's never traded with this sort of volume. Go back a year it was around $1.60, so I guess the question is did the pre dividend price get deflated for some reason and now it's going back to normal?

What spread did you get those puts at? It's a 25% spread to me which is a bit silly.

Average price $1.23... the spread is irrelevant if you don't use market orders

What.

Average price $1.23... the spread is irrelevant if you don't use market orders

Saying it twice doesn't make it true.

25% spread is standard/on the low side for any non highly liquid options.

Question for IB users: I want to make a daily graph of my MTM (i.e. realized + unrealized) PnL. How do I do this? I know IB offers flex queries, but it seems like I would have to manually run a query for every day I want to plot.

Obviously it would be convenient if the spread was always a penny, but it literally makes zero difference whether the spread is 10% or 25% or 50% if you know what price you need within the spread and can get it.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXD

Just discovered that. Kinda interesting. Anyone follow it?

They base it on how many times certain keywords appear in periodicals? Is it the bible code ? With SEO factored in, how can this be more reliable than a simple google trends search?

http://www.policyuncertainty.com/med...BloomDavis.pdf

"Our index reflects the frequency of articles in 10 leading US newspapers that contain the following triple: “economic” or “economy”; “uncertain” or “uncertainty”; and one or more of “congress”, “deficit”, “Federal Reserve”, “legislation”, “regulation” or “White House”."

It can easily be, for obvious reasons.

GILD

The GILD killer:

Just rolled a bit more into June, literally no chance to buy lower. Also NXPI is now one of my largest positions, will add on any weakness going forward.

I picked up some ESRX 66 puts expiring friday on the cheap. I think the potential for something very negative coming out of the CVS earnings on PBMs is high enough to make it worth it.