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Old 12-30-2016, 02:01 PM   #1
ASAP17
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2017 Trading Thread

Happy almost new year BFI! New political order globally colliding with year 9 (possibly) of the bull market. What are your favorite ideas for the new year? Seems to be a lot of consensus thinking (once again) and we all know how well that worked in 2016. Good luck & happy hunting!
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Old 12-30-2016, 02:52 PM   #2
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

First. Still on AXPW penny blast
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Old 12-30-2016, 03:25 PM   #3
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Gonna take a page from jb and try selling naked monthly WMT calls throughout 2017. High risk low reward bridgejumping FTW!
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Old 12-30-2016, 03:34 PM   #4
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

If average expected loss is less than average expected gain, I'm not interested
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Old 12-30-2016, 03:49 PM   #5
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Big plans for 2017! Happy new year guys.
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Old 12-30-2016, 05:56 PM   #6
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

TAL is a good short here. gonna short some on 70 breakdown

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Originally Posted by cicakman View Post
AXPW penny blast
check out VAPE
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Old 12-30-2016, 06:45 PM   #7
hapaboii
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

2017, shave a few us, tinker with deep learning, moar stat arb

gl to all
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Old 12-30-2016, 09:40 PM   #8
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Happy new year

Obv correction year right? I know it's been said every year but feels like a certainty this year.
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Old 12-31-2016, 12:30 AM   #9
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Happy new year

Obv correction year right? I know it's been said every year but feels like a certainty this year.
what's being corrected?
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Old 01-01-2017, 10:02 PM   #10
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Currently:
*Short ES, short ES strangles
*Long ZN
*Short IWM
*Short XLF (small)

No way Yellen raises 3x in 2017. If she raises once, it'll be September. If twice, it'll be in June and December.
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Old 01-01-2017, 10:07 PM   #11
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

For future reference, CME fed watch probabilities:

50-75bps (0 hikes)
5.7%

75-100bps (1 hikes)
22.8%

100-125bps (2 hikes)
33.9%

125-150bps (3 hikes)
25.0%

150-175bps (4 hikes)
10.0%

>175bps (5+ hikes)
2.6%
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Old 01-01-2017, 11:54 PM   #12
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper::: View Post
For future reference, CME fed watch probabilities:

50-75bps (0 hikes)
5.7%

75-100bps (1 hikes)
22.8%

100-125bps (2 hikes)
33.9%

125-150bps (3 hikes)
25.0%

150-175bps (4 hikes)
10.0%

>175bps (5+ hikes)
2.6%
Good ole bell curve.

At this point I think the only interesting question is: is there a cap on rates, and if so where?

They raise once a quarter or less for 25 bps a pop. It just all seems like BS. It will be massaged and managed in lieu of some agenda. But since they can't re predict the outcome contingent upon their actions they may as well spin. A wheel or have a monkey throw darts at a board.
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Old 01-02-2017, 12:54 PM   #13
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

we will keep raising a quarter basis point as long as we're on highs. stock prices matter more than economic data.
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Old 01-02-2017, 03:36 PM   #14
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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we will keep raising a quarter basis point as long as we're on highs. stock prices matter more than economic data.
I think you are pretty spot on, at least with the first half (2nd half is fair as well IMO).
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Old 01-02-2017, 05:02 PM   #15
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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we will keep raising a quarter basis point as long as we're on highs. stock prices matter more than economic data.
yeah if stocks keep trending up i don't see how the fed could possibly not raise in march
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:39 PM   #16
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

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Originally Posted by stinkypete View Post
yeah if stocks keep trending up i don't see how the fed could possibly not raise in march
Fair point, but just given how gradual, delicate and dovish she's been, I don't see her shocking the markets (and her personality) with 3 hikes. I also don't see her raising 3 months after the last hike, and then waiting >6 months for the next hike (e.g. March & December), as that would convey a lack of confidence. So, I guess we're looking at March & September or June & December.
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:54 PM   #17
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

she's been insanely delicate because stocks pre-trump were sorta breakeven for 18 months, and the market reaction 12 months ago was warranted.

also it's basically a mandate at this point that the fed goes out of their way to make their hikes so obvious that the FOMC announcement itself isn't even a trade because it's so priced in. that's really the only risk, to what degree of market confidence in a hike does Yellen typically need. usually its 90%+. i think the mandate has long been "dont surprise anyone" and i'll continue to believe that until we get a new fed chair.

march will be telling, if market says 80% hike then she doesn't hike then I would expect Trump to raise a hissyfit, then we hike in June and depending on how the markets have done the first half of 2016 we either see two hikes (June/Dec, 95% likely) or three hikes (June/Sep/Dec, 5%).
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:54 PM   #18
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Here's another perspective: The probability of a hike in March rate hike is 20.3% (technically, on or before March). A SPX 3/16/2017 2325C is trading at 0.2100 delta, so the probability the S&P closes >= 2325 on 3/16/2017 is 21%, or nearly the same probability as the rate hike. So, if you assume a 100% correlation between these two binary variables, then we need to S&P close >= 2325 in March to see a March rate hike.
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Old 01-02-2017, 09:54 PM   #19
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper::: View Post
Here's another perspective: The probability of a hike in March rate hike is 20.3% (technically, on or before March). A SPX 3/16/2017 2325C is trading at 0.2100 delta, so the probability the S&P closes >= 2325 on 3/16/2017 is 21%, or nearly the same probability as the rate hike. So, if you assume a 100% correlation between these two binary variables, then we need to S&P close >= 2325 in March to see a March rate hike.
that would be a 3.8% gain in S&P... seems pretty reasonable.

though i feel like a hike on a 3% gain would be more likely than no hike on a 4.6% gain, so maybe there's a trade there? always interesting to look at these numbers in any case
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Old 01-03-2017, 08:45 AM   #20
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

it's been the same talk last year. the moment we see a 5%+ pullback in equities like last january the fed will 'reevaluate'. whole fed agenda is to please equity markets. i guess even if we hike in march or june and equities are flat until summer there'll be talks about stagnation and they will hesitate to hike again. maximum i see is 2 hikes this year, but more likely one.
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Old 01-03-2017, 10:37 AM   #21
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Not to bring the quality of conversation back down but OGI (Organigram) may be a good spot. They're having a recall because of pesticide use (similar to what happened to MT earlier) which is resulting in an overcorrection. Slightly nuanced by the fact OGI is supposed to be organic and this looks bad.

Dipped down below 2.6 today so I picked some more up.
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Old 01-03-2017, 12:58 PM   #22
ASAP17
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper::: View Post
Currently:
*Short ES, short ES strangles
*Long ZN
*Short IWM
*Short XLF (small)

No way Yellen raises 3x in 2017. If she raises once, it'll be September. If twice, it'll be in June and December.
Obviously I like all of these trades & your thesis on rate hikes. Gl this year man.
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Old 01-03-2017, 02:24 PM   #23
ASAP17
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

AGN up another 3% today, definitely think (at least to start the year) there is a catchup chase that is going to happen in the bigger cap bios.
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Old 01-03-2017, 03:24 PM   #24
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

Hi guys!My name is Vladimir and am a grinder from Bulgaria!Didnt want to start a new thread so I will write in this one.I want to make a transition from poker to Forex Trading and have a few questions.
1-I have heard that there are many similarities between forex and poker-is that true?Do you think as a good/very good poker player that I Will be able to make it on the forex market?
2-Since I understand absolutely nothing,can you recommend me some books or videos you used to get better-not how you learn the rules.
3-Is it necessary to spend much time as when you play poker-I mean I have played like 10 hours a day for many months and I think this is one of the ways to become the best-dunno if the same applience in Forex Trading.
4-Can you trade for like 2-3 hours a day and be free the rest of the day and not care about trading?(think it maybe as stakes in poker-the higher you play the lower hours you can play and make big money).
Thanks very much!
Vlad
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Old 01-03-2017, 03:26 PM   #25
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Re: 2017 Trading Thread

.
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