2017 Trading Thread - Page 71 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

I think timing is everything with this one. I've been keeping an eye on it, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. The company's liquidity situation isn't great - they have $825,000 in the bank plus another $2 million in receivables, which isn't sh*t if you're gearing up for a long fight with Axxon. Granted, they did say in one of their calls that attorneys might be willing to take the case on a contingency basis, but we'll see.

However, on the plus side, I know someone who testifies as an expert witness in patent trials related to computer software. This guy is the real deal and knows what he's talking about. From what he was telling me, clearing the US PTO board is a very big deal because the US PTO takes the most open ended look at a patent in determining if it should be disallowed. Therefore, the fact that the US PTO has refused to invalidate the patent is a very good sign.

However, if DGLY does somehow lose in litigation, the stock is basically worthless (granted they still have the 292 patent, but it sounds like the 452 is their big gun). Meanwhile, litigation is going to take a while and in the interim there are liquidity concerns, so I don't see a great argument for holding onto it just yet, but to each his own. Definitely worth keeping an eye on though.

DGLY announced a dilutive equity offering today to raise cash. Stock closed down ~10%. Like I said, timing is everything on this. Underlying business is a piece of sh*t, the only thing of any value is their claim against Axxon, and that's going to take a while to play out.

08-21-2017 , 05:47 PM

#1753

Jupiter0

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpursDynasty

Bzun earnings today... Hoping for the best

that's a good one to look at. These China names have been moving up even during this U.S. equity pullback. Just look at WB. Im watching CIFS for b/o and APRI (not china but moving).

08-21-2017 , 06:26 PM

#1754

wopbabalubop

banned

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 610

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jupiter0

that's a good one to look at. These China names have been moving up even during this U.S. equity pullback. Just look at WB. Im watching CIFS for b/o and APRI (not china but moving).

it's just cooked-books du jour imo.

08-21-2017 , 11:14 PM

#1755

Pokabandito

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 173

Quote:

Originally Posted by Malachii

Thanks for sharing your viewpoint in your prior post. When the news hit this morning, I thought I'd get stopped out. Came close at 10:30, but it pulled out of the nosedive. The stop remains and the next day or two should tell whether this falls apart or holds above the 52 week low. On the bright side, they're a few pennies further away from insolvency now and should buy some litigation time... Overall, I agree with everything you have stated though and appreciate you sharing your perspective.

08-22-2017 , 10:15 AM

#1756

EZX

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 526

Buying more on the dip just never seems to fail. Pretty amazing

08-22-2017 , 03:59 PM

#1757

wopbabalubop

banned

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 610

Buying SIG & TUP

08-22-2017 , 04:29 PM

#1758

daChimp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 7,350

Quote:

Originally Posted by EZX

Buying more on the dip just never seems to fail. Pretty amazing

Yup. SHOP, LITE, GBTC were nice gains... GL in the trenches

08-23-2017 , 03:54 AM

#1759

Jupiter0

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by EZX

Buying more on the dip just never seems to fail. Pretty amazing

198 days. Second longest streak ever.

08-23-2017 , 08:47 AM

#1760

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

God bless the little tyrant:

Quote:

Downside In S&P 500 Futures Coincides With Publishing Of WSJ Article 'Kim Jong Un Shown Ordering More Warheads After Tillerson's Praise for 'Restraint''

He's like the ultimate ASAP foil.

08-23-2017 , 09:06 AM

#1761

wopbabalubop

banned

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 610

GOOGL and WMT partnering up to make voice ordering a thing - https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/22/wal-...ogle-home.html

AMZN's best days behind it?

08-23-2017 , 09:40 AM

#1762

daChimp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 7,350

GBTC is like trader crack... gotta check it out

08-23-2017 , 12:28 PM

#1763

Rikers

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 2,320

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jupiter0

198 days. Second longest streak ever.

did we prove pullbacks don't follow random walk? And do we make an assertion about it for time (when they happen) for magnitude (how much they happen) or both?

08-23-2017 , 05:30 PM

#1764

Jupiter0

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikers

did we prove pullbacks don't follow random walk? And do we make an assertion about it for time (when they happen) for magnitude (how much they happen) or both?

I don't have a strong opinion on that. I saw this chart on Tiho's twitter feed. He posts a lot of cool charts.
http://twitter.com/TihoBrkan

08-23-2017 , 05:46 PM

#1765

Rikers

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 2,320

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jupiter0

I don't have a strong opinion on that. I saw this chart on Tiho's twitter feed. He posts a lot of cool charts.
http://twitter.com/TihoBrkan

Point is, if this is simply a random walk the chart is meaningless

08-23-2017 , 06:50 PM

#1766

Jupiter0

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikers

Point is, if this is simply a random walk the chart is meaningless

I don't believe in efficient market theory. Been proven wrong numerous times. Just read Warren Buffett's "Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville' paper.

08-23-2017 , 10:08 PM

#1767

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jupiter0

I don't believe in efficient market theory. Been proven wrong numerous times. Just read Warren Buffett's "Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville' paper.

TLDR. Cliffs?

08-24-2017 , 04:21 AM

#1768

Jupiter0

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by wopbabalubop

Still it's my favorite steel stock and they just announced a dividend. Good time to get in. Also you might want to take a look at AKS .

I found this metal stock CSTM in a 52 week high scan. Im seeing forward PE just 13. Read they are a takeover target for approx $16 plus a share. Haven't dug much into that yet, chart and forward PE good enough for me if hits 10.55. Still in X btw.

08-24-2017 , 09:06 AM

#1769

wopbabalubop

banned

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 610

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jupiter0

I found this metal stock CSTM in a 52 week high scan. Im seeing forward PE j

ust 13. Read they are a takeover target for approx $16 plus a share. Haven't dug much into that yet, chart and forward PE good enough for me if hits 10.55. Still in X btw.

Nice find, buy the rumor

Quote:

Originally Posted by wopbabalubop

Buying SIG & TUP

SIG earnings beat and acquisition? BOOM!

08-24-2017 , 03:34 PM

#1770

calmasahinducow

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,807

Took a small position on some SPLK 62.5 calls. Earnings are tonight and I would not be surprised to see good results and strong guidance based on their revised pricing model.

08-24-2017 , 03:36 PM

#1771

daChimp

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 7,350

Quote:

Originally Posted by daChimp

Yup. SHOP, LITE, GBTC were nice gains... GL in the trenches

This is still working in down markets. Head is spinning and wondering when the wooden floor will giveway.

08-24-2017 , 07:34 PM

#1772

Jupiter0

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by daChimp

This is still working in down markets.

Brazil and Brazil small caps are at all time highs EWZS EWZ, Russia RSX, TLT is still in an uptrend. I'm long TLT. good hedge too.

08-25-2017 , 05:57 AM

#1773

mrbaseball

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 13,090

Anybody got any hurricane plays going? As an energy trader the only thing that is really doing anything right now is RBOB. I think the storm may be a little bit too south and a more direct hit on Houston to New Orleans would have more impact.

Back when Katrina/Rita hit back in 2005 it was a very exciting time as these markets went insane for a couple of months. Especially NG. At the time I was arbing mini NG versus mini ICElots and it was like printing money. Both markets were new and there wasn't much if any institutional participation. They each only traded about 3000 contracts per day and I was doing at least 25% of the daily volume. Unfortunately the big boys eventually caught on and the trade died but during the storms it was the greatest trade I have ever been involved with.

I don't think we will know until the weekend since it doesn't hit until after todays close. But next week could be terrific trade depending on what happens. Katrina hit on a weekend and that Monday was the craziest trade I ever saw in the energy markets. NG opened up about 10 dollars (it's currently trading below 3 dollars) but that was before fracking so I'm not sure if we will ever see that kind of action again.

I am leery of todays trade since it will be all anticipation rather than fact. The picture should be clear by Monday morning which should make for extreme volatility or meh depending on what happens this weekend. Depending on what happens I may be trading the Sunday night session.

08-25-2017 , 10:02 AM

#1774

calmasahinducow

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,807

Quote:

Originally Posted by calmasahinducow

Took a small position on some SPLK 62.5 calls. Earnings are tonight and I would not be surprised to see good results and strong guidance based on their revised pricing model.

All of that happened. Sold the options to net a 4 bagger.