More evidence the sky isnt falling?

I use stockfetcher.com and filter for "show stocks where close gained more than 5 percent over the last 1 day and price is between .5 and 14 average day range is above 2 and volume is above 100000". Triangle patterns aren't really possible to scan for in my experience. You can just see them visually but using stats not so much. Depends on the time frame to. Like a multi year triangle or one week triangle? You see?

Watching the market dump with Shostakovich playing is deeply satisfying.

Feels like a Kubrick movie.

The same guy at RBS says stocks are going to tank every year.

Tonight may be glorious sans govt buying.

$ashr down 4%, $fxi down 1%

There's no way the govt can hold that summer bottom. It's gonna break unless they do things they keep saying they won't (stimulus, rates).

Honestly we haven't seen anything, anything yet. When actual numbers begin confirming this trend, the real carnage will ensue.

What is actually going on in your opinion? The data is all solid (jobs, spending, business activity, confidence, consumer sales generally and across a range of specifics globally). Every data point looks like business as normal. The only weird signs are commodities dumping like crazy with no sign of a turnaround and some shipping indexes, and a bit of contraction in China.

What are you (and certain big players) seeing that the rest of us aren't that's going to make this a bloodbath?

Data almost always looks good at the start of bear markets( I'm not saying this is one btw).

And I should add it always looks terrible at the start of bull markets.

Bonehead move of the year so far. Selling over 100 lnkd 215 puts that expire Friday for 1.40 avg last week .

http://imgur.com/1ZCLSYQ

in the US, i have 2 issues


1. YoY earnings, revenue for sp500 companies has been in decline for 4+ quarters.

2. American ISM appears to be contracting. (see: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160111.htm). Global ISM has broken under 50 at the end of 2015.


globally,

1. YoY global export has turned highly negative in 2015 (see chart in tweet https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/673855234775498752)
2. China
3. China



im not an economist, but the stuff you listed tend to be the laggiest indicators, especially when you juxtapose all of that spending data, confidence to median income data since 2008. Because if you do, you'll see a massive divergence.

Thanks for the response aggo.

The first two I believe are covered simply by the oil collapse, and the massive jump in the value of USD (hurting USD but not global earnings of S&P 500), and as such are not going to lead us down further. If cheap energy is crushing energy stocks, that's not bad for other stocks. They're not structural by themselves. In fact, they're probably bullish given that both can improve.

The third one is concerning. What's causing it in your opinion?

I was wondering if you thought there wasn't something going on behind the scenes, like the large amount of now near toxic oil debt, or a true crash in China (not just a percent or two off 7% growth), that was going to sink us?

This was the level I was really worried about for SPY. I'll short this market pretty heavily if this isn't bought up.

Lol sure you will... That makes perfect sense.

My feeling is that the world is sat on top of the credit cycle at 2014. By then, the Fed made it clear that there was no QE4, or rolling QE3, and central banks around the world began tightening. This tightening greatly influenced the emerging markets who are extremely dependent on the USD and Fed rates to determine their own policies. Now, in 2015, that the real tightening has begun (+0.25% rates) I am sure that we will actually experience the effects of the tightening that started once QE3 officially ended.

It's simply not as cheap anymore to borrow money.

Retrospectively, when the Fed stopped open ended QE3 and Europe launched QE in 2015, the writing shouldve been on the wall for everyone to see that something was very wrong moving ahead in terms of 2016 YoY growth.


As for oil, I think its a mistake to dismiss the earnings and revenue data, particularly when you consider the global scale of oil production and consumption. Part of what determines oil price is demand, and most people cite that there is about a 1 to 1.5 mbpd excess on the market daily. That's about a +1.5% of excess production daily. I think that demonstrates a lot about actual global demand for oil, especially when you consider recent global production levels of oil (e.g. past 5 years).


One reason why I didnt post anything specific about China is because there's no reliable data out there. Probably on Caixin seems trustable right now for me because they reported awful PMI data for China recently.

Leading the way today, big $ is refusing to let it go.

good stuff guys AGGO and TS ^^

Doubled my position in SH. Nothing fancy, not touching the levered ones.

XOM new APPL

Why is gpro green? They announce some weird camera you fly into space or something? I would have expected them to continue the capitulation.

Halted for news pending.

Hilarious Nick Woodman still has a job, still LMAO @ that $75 secondary. Can't stop laughing.

thoughts on twitter at an all time low?

Down 22%. 83% off the highs.

Buy Vanguard Retirement funds?