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2016 Trading Thread 2016 Trading Thread

01-11-2016 , 04:28 PM
Dip got bought pretty hard there. That 190 spot pretty robust.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-11-2016 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
with earnings season starting soon, i think its time to look at stocks that we think will BEAT estimates and not guide lower,,, these are the stocks that will have 10-15% pops the day after it reports.. any idea on what you guys think fits that , so i could start looking into them?
100% cash as of right now (covered dnb stock, lnkd stock, and puts left)

somehow i made back the 12% i was down last year in accounts and hit a new all time high ..

first stock im looking at on long side is UA,, now the fact this perma bear went 100% cash and is looking for longs could also mean we are about to crash. gl all
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01-11-2016 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daChimp
GL to everyone in 2016! Staying long with SBUX, NKE, and VUZI adding more on dips.

Like many others I'm skeptical going forward into 2016. I'm really focused on adding some long positions in Energy/Oil and Tech.

In Energy/Oil, I'm thinking of bundling a few stocks together like BP or TOT (stable big oil, that have >20% upswing), MRO/STO (smaller oil co. with bigger potential up 30-40% and obv bigger risk), and a solar company like TERP/SUNE (currently have a small position with SUNE, GOOGLE just created a program that assists customers to determine profitability of installing solar using weather data, satellite images, etc).

I still consider myself as a novice and always open to ideas and suggestions. Likewise I look forward to passing along any news that may be useful.
daChimp,

I'd be really careful about all energy plays right now. The price of oil has dumped about another 6% for 1/11/2016. I don't really see a bottom or bottoming process with the oil price yet. So any plays with oil majors like BP is troubling and the more speculative companies very problematic. A couple of supply/demand issues to note in oil. It looks like Iran is going to be dumping a lot of oil on the market in the next couple of months. Between increased daily production and substantial oil storage, it is likely Iran will put out at least another 1 million b/d. So that could keep the oil price flat or help to drive it down further. Also, China appears to be slowing down and that can have a big impact on price from the demand side.

As for your solar plays, I'd be concerned about the low price of energy in general. With natural gas, coal and oil being priced so low, that makes a difficult environment for renewables. TERP is exposed to renewables and doesn't appear to be doing much. SUNE is having some serious financial difficulties. Here is a link from Zacks:

Sunedison dives -39% on complex debt restructuring moves

I hope you find this information helpful.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-11-2016 , 05:13 PM
daChimp
dont bottom fish. very few can. you can still catch 60% of the move in oil (if when there is one) and make a ton of money. odds are stacked against you to be in the green overall bottom fishing IMO.

these market conditions seem eerily similar to late august with china spooking and companies blacked out from buying back stock with earnings around the corner. last time around earnings saved the market. should be a very interesting earnings season.

pretty annoyed with my trading lately. held cxrx last friday and covered too soon. -7% today. shorted GG today in the morning and covered too soon as well. really need to work on panic covering my trades that are in the green. i'm not even letting them fully break the trend before covering. probably my number 1 leak right now. possibly has something to do with me just doing 1% position sizing and not really feeling like covering 1/2 on the quick profit and letting the rest ride. need to go 2% position sizing on most trades besides the highest beta.

Last edited by homeboy604; 01-11-2016 at 05:28 PM.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-11-2016 , 08:14 PM
At some point you'd think the Baltic dry index would bottom. But no it just keeps falling. It's short term oversold. Looked at the highest volume shippers charts. All look bearish.
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01-11-2016 , 08:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
100% cash as of right now (covered dnb stock, lnkd stock, and puts left)

somehow i made back the 12% i was down last year in accounts and hit a new all time high ..

first stock im looking at on long side is UA,, now the fact this perma bear went 100% cash and is looking for longs could also mean we are about to crash. gl all
Probably the scariest thing I have ever read.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-11-2016 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
I'd be really careful about all energy plays right now. The price of oil has dumped about another 6% for 1/11/2016. I don't really see a bottom or bottoming process with the oil price yet. So any plays with oil majors like BP is troubling and the more speculative companies very problematic. A couple of supply/demand issues to note in oil. It looks like Iran is going to be dumping a lot of oil on the market in the next couple of months. Between increased daily production and substantial oil storage, it is likely Iran will put out at least another 1 million b/d. So that could keep the oil price flat or help to drive it down further. Also, China appears to be slowing down and that can have a big impact on price from the demand side.
If you're interested in a macro outlook for oil, I thought this was a pretty good read: http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/01/and...letters/?all=1
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01-11-2016 , 10:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
If you're interested in a macro outlook for oil, I thought this was a pretty good read: http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/01/and...letters/?all=1
The first line makes everything else worthless:
Quote:
Andy Hall known by many as the “Oil G-d” had a rough 2015 as his bullish bets on oil did not work out. The commodity hedge fund is down 35%
The man has no idea what he's talking about. We had better analysis on these forums coming into 2015, and we don't even trade oil. This is ahnuld from December 2014:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahnuld
why the hell would opec cut now when its playing out exactly as they want. they need us shale to flat line for 12-18 months. if they world is oversupplied by about 1.5mm barrels a day that flatlining buys enough time for demand to catchup to supply. but to get flatlining they need prices to stay low for a year or more.
And me:
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSoother
It's a pretty simple analysis.

Supply
[] Short term supply speculation
[x] Medium term supply glut
[x] Longer term supply glut due to fundamental changes in the industry

Cartel
[] OPEC temporarily decided not to act because of internal discord
[x] OPEC is pursuing a long term deliberate plan for either shale destruction or geopolitical reasons

Time for cartel's strategy to play out
[] 1 month
[] 3 months
[] 6 months
[x] 1+ years

Inertia present in the rate of increase of supply due to new fields
[x] High
[] Low

Time to meaningful decline in rate of new production as a result of lower prices (see article I posted above)
[] 1 month
[] 3 months
[] 6 months
[x] 1+ years

Pretty much every box is ticked the opposite of what you need for OP's play.
I took no position on oil, and didn't advocate one, but you can see that even the regulars here who don't trade or follow it thought long oil was a risky play and that prices were likely to be depressed for at least a year because it was a deliberate long term strategy.

Yet the tard with a hedge fund who wrote that article went all in and lost 35%. Everything he says is worthless.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-11-2016 , 10:11 PM
Oh and that's with demand increasing, which means he was clownishly wrong on the supply side and the political will when it's his billion dollar job to analyze this stuff. Meanwhile, the nature of both was pretty damn obvious just from some light reading and basic logical thinking that there was unlikely to be a turnaround for at least a year.
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01-11-2016 , 10:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Probably the scariest thing I have ever read.


http://imgur.com/byjgTbw

Can't blame me there.
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01-11-2016 , 10:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW


http://imgur.com/byjgTbw

Can't blame me there.
lol what the **** are those?
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01-11-2016 , 11:16 PM
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Originally Posted by jb514
lol what the **** are those?
Old school tickets. I put in the trade on a desktop of course , but we still need to do a paper trail.
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01-11-2016 , 11:53 PM
Nice DNB trade though Myrna.

Not really a bread and butter set up, but I'm thinking about shorting AVXL as a longterm hold. It truly is a trash company, and the SEC subpoena and fake diploma thing is bound to really punish the remaining bagholders. Read the comments of the SA articles on it. Some of the longs have basically developed Stockholm Syndrome.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-12-2016 , 09:47 AM
Today strikes me as a pretty important day for bulls. Anything less than a convincing green day here has to be a pretty bad sign right? Fun to see calls for red day by noon, and other calls for violent rally. Not sure which to expect myself now. What's typical for pre-market volume on Spy?

Also, have any of you guys seen a day like today sell off into the red, go deep into the red, and then violently go green? I'm trying to account for the chances of that happening with my trades. I feel like we saw one of those this year at least. I know it's counter sentiment for retail to do that, I just wonder if institutional money can do it in this spot.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-12-2016 , 09:55 AM
There was news that sent it green. It wasn't just random. One of the fed members said two hours before that rate hike in the first quarter was unlikely due to insufficient data. If China doesn't implode, this creates a large bullish bias.
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01-12-2016 , 11:10 AM
Action looks like late shorts getting squeezed to me more than any kind of aggressive buying...
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01-12-2016 , 12:06 PM
Added to DHT. Opened a small position in CVS.
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01-12-2016 , 12:07 PM
This seems pretty limp to me for bulls...
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01-12-2016 , 12:48 PM
Limp isn't even characterizing how soft this is. The Myrna omen is real.
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01-12-2016 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
Limp isn't even characterizing how soft this is. The Myrna omen is real.
I think we trade a little up to sideways here. Unless these banks **** the bed this week , but yes a permabear is looking to go long something.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-12-2016 , 01:38 PM
Anyone starting to think about shorting DWTI? I'm thinking if it hits 375 tomorrow it might be worth starting in
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-12-2016 , 04:32 PM
what do you guys think of this ?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/rbs-doomsda...c-year-1537544


cliffs : Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) advised its clients to sell everything, 2016 will be worse than 1929, etc
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-12-2016 , 04:58 PM
XOM once again, still considerably higher than August lows even as oil is much lower. Relative strength is impressive.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-12-2016 , 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
100% cash as of right now (covered dnb stock, lnkd stock, and puts left)

somehow i made back the 12% i was down last year in accounts and hit a new all time high ..

first stock im looking at on long side is UA,, now the fact this perma bear went 100% cash and is looking for longs could also mean we are about to crash. gl all
F me, missed three entry spots by pennies... im a nit sometimes..

anyone have more info on Under armour?
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-12-2016 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jb514
Anyone starting to think about shorting DWTI? I'm thinking if it hits 375 tomorrow it might be worth starting in
ya I was planning on having it on my radar. only problem is 1030am status report so any trade should be either closed before that or started after.
2016 Trading Thread Quote

      
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