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2016 Trading Thread 2016 Trading Thread

01-08-2016 , 10:03 AM
Thought Bull trap this morning when I woke up, still think it now. Anyone see it the other way and buying into this today? I kind of like fading this here, on absolutely no thought process beyond:

-algos gonna algos
-who wants to hold much into this weekend

Won't be able to trade today at all, curious to see how it goes. Good luck everyone, I know some of you are crushing these conditions.
2016 Trading Thread Quote
01-08-2016 , 10:47 AM
I don't think it's an easy short. The market is in reflexive mode, and if it runs a bit, everyone will jump on the bandwagon and buy up the newly cheap stocks en masse.
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01-08-2016 , 10:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
I don't think it's an easy short. The market is in reflexive mode, and if it runs a bit, everyone will jump on the bandwagon and buy up the newly cheap stocks en masse.
Yeah, I'm long the s&P futures from 47. Looking for a run to the over night high @ 65. Nice breadth divergence this morning to hopefully stoke the fire a little bit.

Edit: THink i'm wrong out @ 42.25

Last edited by turtletom; 01-08-2016 at 11:05 AM.
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01-08-2016 , 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by rafiki
-algos gonna algos
What?

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Originally Posted by rafiki
-who wants to hold much into this weekend
That might be retail investor mentality. Not every account is retail.
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01-08-2016 , 11:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
Yeah, I'm long the s&P futures from 47. Looking for a run to the over night high @ 65. Nice breadth divergence this morning to hopefully stoke the fire a little bit.

Edit: THink i'm wrong out @ 42.25
Retry at 1932?
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01-08-2016 , 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
Retry at 1932?
No. It looks like a possible trend down day now, not surprising really going into the weekend, after the breadth divergence failed. Market can't hold any buying right now.

I'm just locking it up for the weekend and going home.
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01-08-2016 , 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by daChimp
Has anyone seen SUNE debt restructuring deal? It looks partly genius, and partly terrible.

I got hammered hard as I was a believer, purchased more to average down on a early dip... Then continued my day not watching market or news (since I knew it was gonna be a rough patch).

Much to my disappointed surprise... Well it was ugly. I still didn't mind the swing, because I'm aware of the volume and volatility of this company. So when I researched the reasoning and say the debt restructuring deal, I became more uncertain.

Several firms covering SUNE rated it as buy or hold, even after their recent performance and troubled balance sheets. The sediment was high. So I made a risk/reward decision given outside data like Google's new solar program and world leaders committing to more green energy.

Does anyone here have any technical advice beyond "sell" or "hold"?
I mentioned this company when it was in the $3 range. I've seen it go from $30 to $2.5 and simply bought thousands of shares because it was dirt cheap and worth a gamble. I've been in and out of it many times, it's not something I'd long term for now.
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01-08-2016 , 04:51 PM
So that bull trap I was talking about...

Managed to get 2 orders filled today, got HOS in the 7's and a Canadian stock. Sitting with a lot of cash still, really curious to see what Monday brings.
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01-08-2016 , 04:52 PM
market a tad fearful of holding over the weekend
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01-08-2016 , 04:53 PM
Just plopped a bit into AMLP (energy infrastructure MLP ETF). "Plopping a bit into" is more optimal than "buying a first tranche" because it is in English.
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01-08-2016 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
Just plopped a bit into AMLP (energy infrastructure MLP ETF). "Plopping a bit into" is more optimal than "buying a first tranche" because it is in English.
Lucky for me I have a French passport

Spoiler:
I really do
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01-08-2016 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
No. It looks like a possible trend down day now, not surprising really going into the weekend, after the breadth divergence failed. Market can't hold any buying right now.

I'm just locking it up for the weekend and going home.
Good call holding off.

You trade at a firm? If so, why? You already have ample leverage as a futures trader.
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01-08-2016 , 07:08 PM
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Originally Posted by jb514
Still 2015 but this LEI is ridiculous. Currently only 1.4m shares outstanding, but after their deal they will have 14.5m o/s. So essentially the market is tacking on $100m market cap for this deal.
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Originally Posted by jb514
Found a little more on EARS, which I'm short. They are being promoted by the same people that promoted MNGA, on which they had like a $2,000 price target.
Shorts going well in 2016. I'm sure the market helped some even though there were still people buying turds with the SP down 20-40 points.

I covered all but 100 LEI, because I'm curious to see when it gets bought in. Covered about 15% of EARS at 5.41 today.
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01-09-2016 , 01:25 AM
Long Term play putting $$$ Monday into NFLX. Wouldnt mind a short term bounce either. Have never seen the market have such a bad week ever.
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01-09-2016 , 02:57 AM
Nflx is close to an all time high. Why are you buying?

And yes, crazy week. Sold my nflx on Monday and didn't bother buying anything. Glad of it.
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01-09-2016 , 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::
Good call holding off.

You trade at a firm? If so, why? You already have ample leverage as a futures trader.
No. Not for a firm, I was just using that as an expression that I was done. Working for a firm would more than likely require me moving to an undesirable locale, imo, like Chi or NY.

Also, I guess I should have added in my post that it is fairly rare for the market to make a 1 month+ bottom on a fri. or thurs. so it is always better to wait for the start of the week. I took one swing because I saw the breadth buy divergence. Mon. has had ~24% of the bottoms and tues. ~30%. Thurs. and Fri. hold the lowest probabilities.

I'd be looking for Tuesday as the low bc off the top of my head I have read some research that shows two 2% down days in a row have a strong bullish edge for the following day UNLESS the last day is on Friday. If the last day is on a Fri. it flips to quite bearish. Also, the data removed the 87 crash as it's an obvious outlier and the bearish probs still strongly significant. If I can find the stuff I'll screenshot and post for you.

Last edited by turtletom; 01-09-2016 at 05:42 PM.
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01-10-2016 , 06:52 PM
Browsing some stock scanners. Does anyone know if there is a scanner available that would allow me to make a search like stocks that have moved 3% or more that are trading in a triangle pattern on the 5 minute chart?
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01-10-2016 , 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by steelhouse
Watched a video on Bloomberg as it said holiday retail sales were up this year 7.9%.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...0UB0Z620151228

Expect all the retailers that went down 50% to rebound. M, KSS, and DDS definitely.
Steel do you have positions in any of these? Major news just breaking for KSS... "“@zerohedge: KOHL'S SAID TO CONSIDER TAKING ITSELF PRIVATE: WSJ. = a whole lot of stock buybacks”
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01-10-2016 , 09:51 PM
So is stuff going to happen tomorrow?
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01-10-2016 , 10:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
Also, I guess I should have added in my post that it is fairly rare for the market to make a 1 month+ bottom on a fri. or thurs. so it is always better to wait for the start of the week. I took one swing because I saw the breadth buy divergence. Mon. has had ~24% of the bottoms and tues. ~30%. Thurs. and Fri. hold the lowest probabilities.
I think there's too much variance to discern any differences in up/down days by the day of the week (or month of the year etc). You would have to do a chi-square or z-test, but even then, these tests assume iid behavior, when in fact there are additional variables at play.

Quote:
Originally Posted by turtletom
I'd be looking for Tuesday as the low bc off the top of my head I have read some research that shows two 2% down days in a row have a strong bullish edge for the following day UNLESS the last day is on Friday. If the last day is on a Fri. it flips to quite bearish. Also, the data removed the 87 crash as it's an obvious outlier and the bearish probs still strongly significant. If I can find the stuff I'll screenshot and post for you.
Again, I'm skeptical here. There are infinite number of strategies/scenarios with an infinite number of exceptions that you can test, and you will likely find one that performs really well (on historical data, but doesn't reveal any inherent truth about price behavior to profit off future price movements). This is called overfitting. But you can test for overfitting by performing cross-validation tests or walk-forwards.
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01-11-2016 , 02:56 PM
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Originally Posted by ASAP17
Steel do you have positions in any of these? Major news just breaking for KSS... "“@zerohedge: KOHL'S SAID TO CONSIDER TAKING ITSELF PRIVATE: WSJ. = a whole lot of stock buybacks”
Yes, I own all of these retailers, I think and BBBY ANF GPS TJX. I will never vote to allow stock raiders to take a company private. It is really getting out of hand, so scared to concentrate. I use to own some SHLD, but I noticed Eddie is getting out and they have losses every quarter.
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01-11-2016 , 03:00 PM
This 189-190 level for Spy seems pretty big. Sitting on all my dry powder, plan was always to see if this spot held or not. What other key levels you guys seeing?
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01-11-2016 , 03:02 PM
with earnings season starting soon, i think its time to look at stocks that we think will BEAT estimates and not guide lower,,, these are the stocks that will have 10-15% pops the day after it reports.. any idea on what you guys think fits that , so i could start looking into them?
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01-11-2016 , 03:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
This 189-190 level for Spy seems pretty big. Sitting on all my dry powder, plan was always to see if this spot held or not. What other key levels you guys seeing?
Earnings and guidance this month will decide all. I expect business as usual for many companies, particularly tech, which means bullishness.
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01-11-2016 , 03:55 PM
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Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
with earnings season starting soon, i think its time to look at stocks that we think will BEAT estimates and not guide lower,,, these are the stocks that will have 10-15% pops the day after it reports.. any idea on what you guys think fits that , so i could start looking into them?
I was planning to do that on the biotech side. So much was slashed mercilessly. Had reduced my holdings to a piddly 9-10k worth before this, so pressing that hard really interests me right now. I'll post a few names, but I know most people in here don't tend to do much in biotech. TLGT is one I really like to recover hard and fast. They don't do anything special, do generics but do them really well.
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