Just wondering why you would be looking to stay in as much cash as possible. Seems like a pretty brutal week and would think many people would be picking a day like today to jump in with sideline money. Unless of course you think there is going to be a huge crash or losses in the market this year. DOW had the worst start to the year ever. Scared money seems to be leaving the market.

Also, anyone have any suggestions on some foreign stocks easy enough to buy specifically in China that have been beaten down recently that look good?

I was responding to the poster above domer hence the quotes around it. Don't really need you to clarify that point lol but glad that took up 2/3 of your response. I read your value forum thesis posted last year & this was my favorite part, "There’s no secret here: the #1 catalyst to move the stock price higher will be the price of oil increasing. I wish I had a special insight into when, or if, that will happen but I don’t... The combination of book value putting a floor on the stock price and their ability to generate over $2.00/sh in a sustained low oil environment protects my downside." So price to book has improved & where are we now domer? In the exact same tailspin as where the stock was a year ago only it's actually performed worse vs spot like a lot of the other names in the sector such as TDW, GLF, CKH. So clearly that thesis was/has been wrong & yet people keep buying on the way down.

So what is the thesis now for those of you continuing to play in this name? It's even cheaper & should hold up better/oil is close to bottoming? It just sounds ridiculous to fight a very clear trend until that sees ANY sort of resolution.

I'd like to sell puts as we go lower to take advantage of high volatility is the main reason. No evidence we are at any sort of near term bottom, personally I wouldn't mind if we retest the August lows.

That would be a reason to not go with the lower beta names you mentioned to exactly the same extent.

HOS is just higher beta than other tickers tied to the price of earl. Nothing more, nothing less.

I thought the main argument is HOS can withstand lower prices due to their book value & short dated contracts which allow them to slash expenses? At least with the lower beta majors I get paid to wait while oil stabilizes. Less upside on the rebound but who says that is happening any time soon? It's a guess & how can you possibly have an edge trying to forecast crude? If you can, I'd love to hear it myself & try to make some $ with you.

Short naked ES puts for 2/3 max size. Got more bullets if we trade high-mid 1800s. Markets finally becoming exciting since September.

What expiration?

The main argument is that, at worst, they will be the last man standing because they have the balance sheet that can withstand severe pressure and because they are willing to stack ships waiting for better times.

They'd be better off with more long-dated contracts.

You get paid a couple percent that isn't guaranteed. That does tend to prop things up.

I'm trying to think of the last "I get paid to wait" play that outperformed. Nothing comes to mind.

Of course. My position is sized accordingly. IF DHT and HOS both quadruple in size, they will add up to a normal sized position for me.

I've got no forecast at all. Just a small bet that HOS and DHT are undervalued and will eventually get back to normal valuations. I'd give it, at best, a 50/50 chance.

KBIO and flash crash was about 30x my normal winner or loser. I have strategies that hold for 30 sec and some that hold for days. My shorting strategy I'm typically holding for several hours to several days. Risking 10-20% per trade is nuts though.

But if you're trying to aggressively grow an account, occasionally risking 10-20% of your worth on an idea/trade/strategy makes sense to me. I might get a little biased since when you're trading in an office with other traders, you get used to people taking enormous kelly sized bets, when they have a big edge.

Obviously dividends aren't a thesis & they are helping prop up XOM, CVX. Having said that both companies have balance sheets (in the case of CVX) & free cash flow (in the case of XOM, which is my preferred of the 2 given CVX is having to make more capex cuts & asset sales) to keep the dividends secure & stocks outperforming the sector in the near & medium term. Btw the dividend yields are way higher than 2%, CVX is at 5.16% & XOM is at 3.83%. I don't understand your argument of chasing high beta here other than potentially bottom fishing. Your thesis has a lot more "ifs" than mine & IF the dividends do eventually get cut I can promise HOS relative to the 2 majors will be a lot lower than it is now (unless someone takes them out which I guess is a possibility for the bull case if their assets/price to book are/is as strong as stated on here).

I guess I was one of the people this is directed to since I posted that I stepped in to catch the knife like 30 seconds after you calling everyone who bought in out.

Maybe I'm straight up gambling but I saw HOS drop about 20% in the last 3 days, and 10%+ today while WTI just grinder in the 30's. Nothing fundamental about WTI has really changed this week, unless we extrapolate that this China mini stock crash is a harbinger for lower global growth and therefore demand for oil. If that's the case well good game these stocks are ****ed and so is XOM, Suncor and anyone else who is vertically integrated.

I'm just looking for a quick scrape here (which I did twice last year under similar circumstances). I'm not buying here to hold to a 60 target or whatever.

It's entirely possible this goes from an ill advised trade to a long term hold and I light money on fire but I'm fine with it.

I do engineering work downstream but have a lot of contact with firms in Calgary that deal with oil production and my read is that if oil stays in the 30's or even low 40's thru the middle of the year we have one final mother****er of a purge coming

So I'm not looking to bottom fish.

I also should've clarified my post on wcp.to. I'd buy that for an investment but I'm not interested until they've either already cut their dividend (in which case the entire Canadian industry ex Suncor/CNRL/Imperial Oil is on the brink) or Oil is back in the mid 50's and stabilized.

March, but I also have some Feb puts that I wrote in mid December. Various strikes, all deep OTM (e.g. 1650 and below)

Btw, markets acting kindly. 6 hours until Euro open and we're already up 20 pts.

It wasn't directed at you specifically dude but thanks for your insight. Same to you Brian. I'm just trying to understand why this specific name has so much attention on here. The price action even w/ oil declining contradicts the supposed fundamental picture. Short interest is still high & very little options activity.

ASAP, just out of curiosity, noticed your location, I work at the Cal Grand, curious to know if you attend there much. You can pm me if need be.

You do? Yeah! I used to play there all the time, not as much anymore but it's really close to me. 223 & 235 .

I deal 3 days, work the cage 2 days. Stop by and hop in the 2-3-5, it needs help.

It would be kind of funny to know how many 2+2ers are in HOS. -have it in Roth IRA

Don't do it with paper. A chinese guy did this and it was lol him when he dug it up. Much of it got eaten/rest decayed.

I'd rather have CVX/XOM than HOS myself but majority of this thread seems to have HOS (I also do not). I can't find a good reason to be bullish in the short term though atm so I'm just waiting.

yeah that's kind of where I am. I've got some cash to invest, and I'm tempted to jump into one of uso/cvx/hos but .. I dunno. I don't think it can go much lower (but I thought that a year ago), but I don't have a good reason to buy either.

Found a little more on EARS, which I'm short. They are being promoted by the same people that promoted MNGA, on which they had like a $2,000 price target.

Here's a clip from an email they sent out
“remarkable new Tinnitus drug recommendation we’re reserving for our most loyal readers… The little $4 stock that could be on a path to $911 once Phase 3 study results are announced early next year.”

Go to their site and it says it costs $6k for their research. The stock has got a $240m market cap, and 34m shares outstanding so shorts probably won't get bought in for a while. Still not too sure when this thing is gonna dump, but the clock is ticking.

We all can agree this is hilarious. “@sentimentrader: This is likely incomplete, but it has paid to be a buyer when CNBC pulls out its Markets In Turmoil. https://t.co/s5gUo7VS9O

Has anyone seen SUNE debt restructuring deal? It looks partly genius, and partly terrible.

I got hammered hard as I was a believer, purchased more to average down on a early dip... Then continued my day not watching market or news (since I knew it was gonna be a rough patch).

Much to my disappointed surprise... Well it was ugly. I still didn't mind the swing, because I'm aware of the volume and volatility of this company. So when I researched the reasoning and say the debt restructuring deal, I became more uncertain.

Several firms covering SUNE rated it as buy or hold, even after their recent performance and troubled balance sheets. The sediment was high. So I made a risk/reward decision given outside data like Google's new solar program and world leaders committing to more green energy.

Does anyone here have any technical advice beyond "sell" or "hold"?

Well live and learn. I have had a lot of companies go bankrupt. You can find about the details of the debt in the 10-k and 10-qs. I have stayed away from SCTY, SUNE, and stayed with CSIQ, FSLR.

I have been looking for a small oil company however, they all seem to have so much debt that it seems that it might be wise to buy the debt to get the equity on the cheap. Even at $30 oil prices, without the debt these companies will be alright.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/ny...xwebtxt0000013

If you look, after gross profit they blow almost all of it on SGANDA expenses, then add in RANDD and interest expenses and all you see is a bunch of overpaid brats running the company. Compare this to FSLR.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/na...xwebtxt0000013

You see SGANDA expense are actually going down every quarter. you listen to the CEO talk to Cramer or someone and you get the impression he knows what he is doing. RANDD stable, and the interest expense is zero in fact the have some interest income coming in from somewhere.

I have not looked at FSLR in awhile and they may be the the next AAPL, MSFT, AMZN as if you bought in 1990. Once solar is installed it will be producing power for a century. The only question is the longevity of these thin film panels.

Now look at sunpower, they make great panels but ....

http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/na...xwebtxt0000013

They just don't seem as strong. Barely making money this quarter (note you can add back in depreciation, amount, and special non-cash charges if you want to).

The reason to go higher beta (in general) is to be able to place smaller bets.

I've got a whopping 2% of my money in HOS. Err, I did when I bought it at least.

The reason this one has gotten attention is because it was brought to our attention and we looked at it. You don't get value plays that look pretty.