I came to the conclusion pretty quick that technical trading was a baseless strategy of trying to pick up on patterns that your mind tried to find that really doesn't exist. Regardless of the bid/ask spread + commissions, I figured there was no real edge. Although since you have been posting on here for 10 years I read what you say. If you don't mind me asking, does your trading style involve a lot different technical techniques or do u you trade similar spots that your are comfortable with over and over again?

I trade a very simple breakout/momentum strategy. Although I do have lots of specific rules attached to it. Basically it is just a channel breakout entry with a trailing channel exit. Only really works in volatile type markets that have good intraday moves and trends. But you get enough good moves to more than make up for the chops. But ONLY if you let those good moves run and don't exit early which was the point I was trying make.

Anyone have an opinion on Chipotle puts? Tough to time properly and have been priced up recently. Prolly missed the best ones but stock could go alot lower.

Gives a decent breakdown of the recent price movement with CMG:

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rati...grill-lower-sh

Lol you want to buy puts now? Makes no sense, if anything I'd rather go long down here.

I'm now sure about other places, but the Chipoltes by me are still as busy as ever, no one seems to care about the outbreak, I have not heard one person say anything bad about them other than news stories. I think this is more the media blowing something out of proportion than anything that is going to impact long-term sales.

Donchian channels itt

Funny, I've also found that building a position then scalping is a better option to your bottom line. Practically waiting for a market open vol spike works great. Capturing intraday fat tails

Not exactly a hot take, but anyone care to speculate on a few scenarios for where the bottom is with Apple in 2016? Building up my wife's account in 2016, had previously never really contemplated Apple sub-$90. Had a glance over at the Feb Puts, lot of open interest in those $90's. Tooth this is your baby, now that it's lost $100 (for now), how you see this playing out? It's really done nothing but punish investors since the $120's.

There is some major support around 102 and then again 100 , the thing is a lot of holders expect that to hold or look at it as an entry spot , I think if it breaks , it can be a quick fall to 95 (as soon as by Friday ) , ts sold me on getting some puts yesterday , I think the news yesterday is a pretty good significant catalyst in getting it there sooner rather than later.

<insert one bad AAPL joke here>

Yup I basically took the channel system detailed in The Way of the Turtle (Curtis Faith) and adapted it to intraday trading with a few tweaks and rules of my own and lots and lots of testing using various time frames, channel widths and stop distances. Capturing the fat tails covers the choppy times and the toughest part is hanging onto a winner after a string of chop outs because once you take a profit before its time you can't unring that bell if it keeps running and you have ruined to reason it works in the first place.

Which markets do you trade this way?

HO, RB, GC and KC for the most part but will add in markets if they get "hot". If the grains start going nuts due to weather I'll add some of them in and if something else starts showing strong trends/volatility I will consider them. CL and NG used to be my mainstays but at current levels the risk/reward just isn't there now.

Thanks. Do you think this could work on stocks? What are typical entry-exit time-spans for winning and losing trades? And don´t transaction costs eat up a lot of your profits?

I trade trends like you, but on longer time frames.

Being a commodities guy I never really traded stocks. There are probably stocks where it would work. Look for stuff with large ATR's. HO and RB work well because they have 4-5% swings every day. Not sure how many stocks have those kinds of consistent swings.

Juice and slippage are just the cost of doing business and yes the system has to be able to overcome them. Each contract typically sets up about 2 or 3 times a day and sometimes not at all or as many as 5 or 6. The more signals the worse since it typically means you are getting sliced and diced. This happened to the products (HO, RB) yesterday as they just got chopped up. But Monday was a perfect day as they had a huge up move, a major reversal with a huge down move giving only 2 exceptional signals. The 2 days put together was very good.

But you can trade them as fast or slow as you want by timeframe or channel width.

Was going to respond but it's rafiki so what's the point? TS ITS YOUR BABY lol. Give the man an answer!

What a nice move in TWX this morning, searching for news but can't find it.

Taking off a decent portion here on TWX, what a monster. Having a really great couple of days .

They are going to try & kitchen sink the upcoming ER. 30% decline in SSS in December with a subpoena served up this morning. I'm not for catching falling knives but there will come a point soon when a long position makes sense. Food stocks are very much like fashion, right now MCD is the IT brand in the space.

Overall not a bad year. On stocks I had a couple of big winners (tmus, nflx, msft) and a couple of big duds (uso, cvx), and some middles (vanguard funds, data, va). Options went less well, msft covered calls wiped out most of those gains and I was breakeven in my other options ventures.

Just sold my nflx and debating what to do with the proceeds. Thinking about doubling down on oil but I was totally wrong about it a year ago.

CHINAAAAAA

How about that 30 minute work day?

couldn't you just fade every breakout with your model during non volatile market hours/ non trending markets with a profit taking where your current stops are. (and not letting losses run) I'm sure there would be some tweaking here where the stop is and but in the end you'll get the variance reduced since this one would make money during chop times and make you net positive 12 of 12 months.

Yeah probably, but that's basic systems trading theory. Scale horizontally and increase number of strategies

Shuffle, this has to break 2900 right? Nothing has changed since then, all the peripherals continue to trend downward and there will be less confidence in govt intervention as they break 3000.

Cny devalue tells the whole story. The people won't believe the govt as long as there is a daily 0.1-0.4% devalue, and if they stop devaluing, it will hurt their gdp.

I'm at the point where I just want oil to go to 20 and the market to crash and I wanna go all in shorting everything so that probably means a rally is about to happen