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2016 Trading Thread 2016 Trading Thread

08-17-2016 , 03:04 PM
I actually don't mind FSLR coming down a fair bit from here, I'd like to buy more.

Rest of my trades are such a mixed bag right now. NVTR is in beast mode, was a gift to get any in the 6's. Weed stocks also crushing.

Then HOS, TWTR, FSLR all down but I really don't hate where I bought them at all. TWTR feels a bit like chasing but like everyone else I agree they're near the top of the buyout bunch. Outside of that I don't really know what to make of the markets right now. Missed the KMPH rebound, hoping not to miss one in CXRX.
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08-17-2016 , 03:06 PM
Restaurant "recession" huh? Maybe (still doubt it) for higher end but check out YUM, QSR, JACK, almost all the pizza stocks. Beasting.
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08-17-2016 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Legend
daChimp,

Remember when you said that about TWLO?
I do, and I was obviously wrong. I made some profit, but ultimately broke about even.
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08-17-2016 , 04:58 PM
Erm short a fairly large, for me, ES position @ 2179.50. New high would hurt bad. Don't love lots of things about stocks up here though.
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08-17-2016 , 05:57 PM
Rafki -- what weed based investments are you holding?
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08-17-2016 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daChimp
I do, and I was obviously wrong. I made some profit, but ultimately broke about even.
That is too bad, I thought you had taken a long position and it has done well since then.
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08-17-2016 , 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf
Rafki -- what weed based investments are you holding?
I've had Canopy (CGC.TO) since the day the Liberals won here in Canada. And I've been stalking APH.V now since the dilution. Looking for a spot to enter. They just got the license to sell extracts. I think that sector is the one with the most potential for explosive growth and the lowest chance of competition from the street/home grower.
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08-18-2016 , 12:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Restaurant "recession" huh? Maybe (still doubt it) for higher end but check out YUM, QSR, JACK, almost all the pizza stocks. Beasting.
none of those really strike me as representative of a "restaurant" at least pertaining to the argument of the existence of a restaurant recession.

i'd like to think fast food is independent of casual dining, and fast food will always be the last one to struggle since its the cheapest and easiest to access.

would prefer you have people check out the stocks like these:

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08-18-2016 , 01:46 AM
One trend I have noticed in the restaurant industry lately (not fast food), at supposed mid-higher end restaurants: Newer layouts put tables so close together it is almost like you are enjoying your meal with strangers. When I go out to a nice restaurant, my gf and I end up getting seated at a table where there are only a few inches of space between us and the next table over. How does anyone think that is an acceptable design, yet it seems to becoming more and more common? I at least want to feel I can say something and not being part of another table's conversation and vice versa. One high end wine bar we enjoy we actually have more room at the bar than if we request a table (luckily we both prefer the bar here anyways).

sorry this does not add much to the short-term trading thread but it seems like some accountants trying to maximize $ per square foot or something and are making some pretty terrible long-term decisions, I have vowed not to return to several restaurants that I used to enjoy that have moved/remodeled with designs like this. If I'm spending ~$100+ for a meal for two I expect to have enough space to feel comfortable and to be treated better than cattle. I don't think the restaurant industry is dead but I think there are certain restaurants that are not providing a good enough experience to be worth going to. Publicly-traded chain restaurants could very well be dead since they can't seem to figure these basic things out.

Fast casual like Panera and Chipotle are still as popular as ever by me (lines out the door over lunch at both and also at Chipotle over dinner and they actually give more space than the higher end restaurants I am complaining about), but I have not done any research on their valuations recently.

Sorry, that was a bit of a rant but at the same time if you can correctly identify which restaurants are making good or bad changes there is also money to be made and this include the fast-food brands.

Last edited by Shoe; 08-18-2016 at 02:16 AM.
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08-18-2016 , 09:32 AM
What do you guys think of CSCO cutting all that workforce?

Target beatdown hard yesterday as well.

So much news to digest that it is tough to say if these other signs of something bigger going on with the overall economy.
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08-18-2016 , 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoe
One trend...
Not sure where u live but if its a major metro much of that has to do with rental costs/ not wanting to raise prices. Also food must not be good if your that worried about seating. I worked in bes restaurant in NOLA when I was younger been open 100 years and WE PACKED THEM IN. People are different there though. Not snooty tech nerds or wall st. chumps, they care about food.
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08-18-2016 , 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clayton
none of those really strike me as representative of a "restaurant" at least pertaining to the argument of the existence of a restaurant recession.

i'd like to think fast food is independent of casual dining, and fast food will always be the last one to struggle since its the cheapest and easiest to access.

would prefer you have people check out the stocks like these:

It's a fair point honestly & when you look at those companies none are at ATHs/most seem to be lagging the market. It's the low/mid level sit downs that are struggling. The name I do like out of that group is PLAY aka Dave & Busters. Think their niche insulates them from some of the larger sector issues.
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08-18-2016 , 01:03 PM
Buying the dips in the prison names
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08-18-2016 , 01:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twelve yr old
Buying the dips in the prison names
Theory on this? Don't know much about the private prison economy lol.
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08-18-2016 , 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by twelve yr old
Buying the dips in the prison names
wat, why
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.ea8ddfc37aa8
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08-18-2016 , 02:16 PM
I believe most private prisons are state run
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08-18-2016 , 02:49 PM
https://news.vice.com/article/the-fe...ion-of-inmates

Doesn't seem like a big move, but maybe a sign of things to come.

I remember Rogan asked Gary Johnson about private prisons when he had him on, and Johnson just said that they're extremely efficient compared to gov't run. Said in NM, they saved taxpayers like 30%.
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08-18-2016 , 03:46 PM
All current trades working well but twitter (felt like a chase and I guess it was). Only a half position on twitter and figure I just sit on my hands here and average down later if need be.

Also tempting to add to my HOS position here.
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08-18-2016 , 05:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Theory on this? Don't know much about the private prison economy lol.
You don't need to, all you needed to know was that the market overreacted on CXW.

It was down as much as 50% when only 7% of their business was affected. Expect a huge gap up tomorrow!
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08-18-2016 , 06:20 PM
My thought on twitter is that it is super likely it will be acquired in the next 12 months.
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08-18-2016 , 06:57 PM
Quote:
My thought on twitter is that it is super likely it will be acquired in the next 12 months.
Who do you see buying them?
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08-18-2016 , 06:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rafiki
All current trades working well but twitter (felt like a chase and I guess it was). Only a half position on twitter and figure I just sit on my hands here and average down later if need be.

Also tempting to add to my HOS position here.
I went long also when it broke out.

It reversed and I sold at a loss. You might consider that as an additional option.
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08-18-2016 , 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipExcess
You don't need to, all you needed to know was that the market overreacted on CXW.

It was down as much as 50% when only 7% of their business was affected. Expect a huge gap up tomorrow!
Where do you get 7%? A quick look at the 10q shows around 52.5% of revenue comes from federal sources.
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08-18-2016 , 10:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malachii
Who do you see buying them?
Any tech mega corp.

It would make the most sense for Google. I can't understand for the life of me why they aren't doing it right now. Perhaps because they are basically losing money on everything but core Google but I'm not sure at this point what is stopping them.

Oracle would also be a great candidate. I don't think Larry has any idea how to use Twitter or they would have probably been acquired long ago.

I don't think salesforce can come up with the cash anytime soon or I'm sure they would love to grab it.

Apple kinda makes sense but it would have to be part of a bigger shift for them I think. I don't really get what just adding twitter accomplishes for Apple. But if they go after VR + social building devices for easy integration with new twitter features could be huge. But they want to build an apple car, which is lol.

As crazy as it sounds, Microsoft could make a worthy suitor. If social media is here to stay buying the social vip and business vip apps may go down as historically great management.

Tech is polarizing a bit with the rich companies printing money and some of the smaller ones having to fight to survive. It makes sense why in this type of environment companies get acquired.
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08-18-2016 , 10:53 PM
Salesforce was of two companies bidding for LinkedIn, they can easily get this deal done if they wanted to it would just make no sense what so ever. At current valuation it doesn't make sense for anyone really.

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