Yep, you answered your earlier question. The best ones are all cash deals and shareholder approved.

It ain't that simple.

IMO it nearly is. The hedge funds that buy almost every deal and charge 2 and 20 want you to think it's very complicated.

So many things are over my head in this thread, but this arb no brainer talk sounds like strung together run good? Are there any recent examples that have completely blown up and what made it so obvious?

It feels comparable to when my RE truther friends give me a blank stare when asked how many evictions they've had to deal with in the past 5 years

Yeah obviously deals blows up and drawdowns happens but risk reward is more important. A few deals blow up every year and you get caught in them, and meanwhile many go through.

Sold DRYS as my biggest loss of the year - 20% - good time to take the loss against profits and let the rest of of the folio grow in the next fiscal year

To see my day by day of daytrading a 100k account go here
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1171857349570259/

Selling WMT calls, Jan 20, 70 strike @ 1.04.
Lets see how this works out.

I will probably be a buyer of WMT shortly - good growth / great dividend - not high volatility but enough that you can squeeze out 5% a quarter if you like the wait and see style

RAD is an interesting spot. I like it here but I don't really want to be over exposed. At 8.20 there's 80c of upside with maybe $2.5-$4.0 of downside. Walgreens is divesting 864 stores to FRED, which the market is somewhat doubting. The thought is that FRED could become the next Hagen's from the Albertson's Safeway deal. Fred's won't be nearly as leveraged Hagen's but the FTC can be a little crazy sometimes. I think the real probability is a bit higher than the 80-85% chance the market is pricing right now.

Disgusting to miss out on the big move even with a bunch of bull call sweepers over the last couple of weeks on weakness to 52w lows up to 10 minutes before the news broke.

FRED needs to go a lot lower than where it is for me to doubt this is happening. I think there is a decent amount of uncertainty about the sector right now hence RAD absurd risk premium at times and vol for a deal that hasn't really hit a true roadblock yet.

you guys arbitraging by shorting FRED or buying puts? I wanted to take on more RAD @ 8.2 or < but had too high exposure... was thinking of buying FRED puts to lower risk but seemed too expensive + although they said this will the FTC will rule on this before they leave I think it can drag on.

Either way if this falls through FRED is going to lose a larger % then RAD for sure after doubling on the news and doubt it can go much higher.

I had like like a 7.35 avg in RAD and added around 1/3 in the past few days. We're all in the same boat. I think these are good prices around 8.25ish but we have to manage our exposure. The FTC will approve/file a suit in the next 30 days or so. For reference the SWY/Albertsons deal this is being compared to announced their divestiture package on 12/19 and received FTC approval on 1/27.

Shorting FRED is interesting and I know some people who are short it against RAD, but it's hard to say where FRED trades on approval/suit so I'm not sure how it changes yet alone helps the risk reward.

CAB is also on radar. Should hear from the FTC tomorrow. Which should actually tell us whether the outgoing FTC still gives a **** about carry out the old agenda

Citron came out with a $90 price target on NVDA. That's a nasty print yesterday on it, lot of sell volume.
https://twitter.com/CitronResearch/s...285760?lang=en

My XLF short is finally moving.

Continues to work, I'm adding on weakness. Think this is an easy hedge right now at the very least.

NVDA still has more room to run with the need for chips for AI - the last 2 days have been a good time to rebuy NVDA / AMD / MU as they fell

I would recommend INTC as a fall back position on this stock

Shorting the XLF will only be temporary - I would not stay long on this short - the financials are going to improve for the era of low/even negative interest is not going to continue

Left is a riot. He made 13% off a beautifully timed tweet. Right for the throat on a day when it opens gap up 2% to absurd new highs in a down market...

Xuhua is goat

Seems like a joke to me. Citron made a name for themselves spotting small cap fraud and now we are supposed to listen to them when he says a large cap is slightly overpriced. Good for Andrew Left for crushing it but it just shows you how dumb the herd is.

If you could legally move the price of a large cap 13% in two days by typing 140 characters into your phone, would you do it?

I sincerely doubt he as the only force - numerous players took the money off the table as evidenced by almost every sector

Yeah it wasn't just Citron moving the stock. It's funny that now everyone listens to him when he says a large cap is 30% overpriced, compared to his old stuff where he was finding total frauds.

Wtf happened to the Euro earlier?

anyone know why HOS went nuts AH