2016 Trading Thread - Page 165 - Business, Finances and Investing Forum

Anyone else feel like there's some weird sneakiness going on with oil here?

Last 3 times OPEC tried this, all the language was around optimism behind a deal, you sold the rumor, and all 3 times they failed to agree on something. This time all the language is pessimism, it's not going to work. Strikes me as such a sneaky foundation for a deal to actually take place. I've got nothing to back this up, just talking out loud here.

the saudi's want $50 oil, so we get $50 oil. "Oil will recover in 2017 even without cuts"

https://www.ft.com/content/4ff9aa36-...5-95d1533d9a62
http://business.financialpost.com/ne...tput-after-all

Quote

11-28-2016 , 02:58 PM

#4102

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,077

What they say and what they do are 2 very different things. There's also a limit to what they can do. Eventually though with Aramco, they're going to have to get drastic I think.

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11-28-2016 , 04:32 PM

#4103

ToothSayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 13,237

There's a limit on what they can do?? The Saudis can have $90 oil tomorrow if they want it, and more than double their daily revenue while pulling out less of their finite resource.

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11-28-2016 , 04:58 PM

#4104

MyrnaFTW

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW

HLF looks like its ready to fall off a cliff, dont miss this one

saying this again,, uncle carl can still screw me over,, but this co is not worth more than 30

Quote

11-28-2016 , 05:10 PM

#4105

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,077

Quote:

Originally Posted by ToothSayer

There's a limit on what they can do?? The Saudis can have $90 oil tomorrow if they want it, and more than double their daily revenue while pulling out less of their finite resource.

In a vacuum totally. But you're leaving out the fact that it would make them look like fools in the region and maybe the world. Obviously they're not willing to unilaterally save the price of a barrel. That's why this keeps failing. So again, there's limits to what they can do here.

Quote

11-28-2016 , 05:15 PM

#4106

TheDempster

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 302

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW

saying this again,, uncle carl can still screw me over,, but this co is not worth more than 30

Real Nice Myrna

Quote

11-29-2016 , 12:04 AM

#4107

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDempster

Real Nice Myrna

His TBT trade is one of the best of the year in here even if for some of the wrong reasons (got a little back from the Clinton loss I'd hope). Keep it going dude.

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11-29-2016 , 01:44 AM

#4108

formula72

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 4,317

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

His TBT trade is one of the best of the year in here even if for some of the wrong reasons (got a little back from the Clinton loss I'd hope). Keep it going dude.

Are you @ the Grand tonight?

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11-29-2016 , 03:52 AM

#4109

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by ASAP17

His TBT trade is one of the best of the year in here even if for some of the wrong reasons (got a little back from the Clinton loss I'd hope). Keep it going dude.

Is this the same guy who was asking if deep ITM TBT calls were mispriced?

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11-29-2016 , 07:50 AM

#4110

MyrnaFTW

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::

Is this the same guy who was asking if deep ITM TBT calls were mispriced?

I understand that it seems like I simplified the question , but there have been situations where I believe the pricing model was wrong. If I recall correctly. The 32.5 calls were reading at 50 cents with tbt at 33.05 ,the day before a major announcement.

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11-29-2016 , 09:27 AM

#4111

AllinPoker

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 377

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

I have a feeling Iran won't freeze production till they hit some way bigger numbers or others take cuts. They probably want their old percentage of OPEC quota numbers.

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11-29-2016 , 11:08 AM

#4112

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,077

Sold the last of the wife's oil holdings this morning, she got the best of it for sure buying pretty much at the bottom.

Still feel really fortunate to be mostly in cash right now. Might start looking to short the indexes.

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11-29-2016 , 12:42 PM

#4113

:::grimReaper:::

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 3,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW

Impossible. Below is the post. Major announcement is irrelevant for a deep ITM option pricing. If the probability of expiring ITM is close to 100%, it will basically trade at intrinsic value. Also, if you want to make leveraged trades, I'd consider trading futures.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW

so One of my current plays is TBT 33.5 calls that expire tomorrow , i think the options are underpriced , i am buying them @ 1.15 with TBT @ 34.60 .. am i missing something here?

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11-29-2016 , 12:54 PM

#4114

MyrnaFTW

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by :::grimReaper:::

I understand that , with all things being equal yes, but it should have not been priced so close to intrinsic value imo .. if i remember correctly, i did lose on that trade, but i thought it was a good spot..

Quote

11-29-2016 , 12:58 PM

#4115

ASAP17

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 5,882

Quote:

Originally Posted by formula72

Are you @ the Grand tonight?

I was there dude playing 223.

Quote

11-29-2016 , 05:04 PM

#4116

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,077

bought NAL.TO 1.69 near the bell. There's just no way I can go into tomorrow sitting on my hands. Good luck to everyone, gonna be a wild day no matter what.

Quote

11-30-2016 , 03:32 AM

#4117

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

Gambling on PAH calls before close today. Earnings tomorrow before open. 10s are only .04

Still on PAH. Got more December's and some January. Both 10's

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11-30-2016 , 08:07 AM

#4118

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,077

lol OPEC Those sneaky ****s! Stuff is gonna gap

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...al-on-oil-cuts

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11-30-2016 , 10:17 AM

#4119

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,077

Finally got one for you ASAP, long HOS 4.70 premarket

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11-30-2016 , 10:19 AM

#4120

skidge

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 71

Bad to buy the gap up of NAL at 1.8? Would think OPEC news have bigger effect.

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11-30-2016 , 10:30 AM

#4121

wopbabalubop

banned

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 610

this should be an interesting.

anybody like aqn?

Quote

11-30-2016 , 10:36 AM

#4122

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,077

Quote:

Originally Posted by skidge

Bad to buy the gap up of NAL at 1.8? Would think OPEC news have bigger effect.

quadrupled at the open at 1.81

Quote

11-30-2016 , 10:50 AM

#4123

wopbabalubop

banned

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 610

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

Finally got one for you ASAP, long HOS 4.70 premarket

The offshore'ers truly benefit at $60-70 oil and up. How long are you on this play?

Grabbed some WTI and HOS.

Quote

11-30-2016 , 10:52 AM

#4124

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,077

Quote:

Originally Posted by wopbabalubop

The offshore'ers truly benefit at $60-70 oil and up. How long are you on this play?

Grabbed some WTI and HOS.

somewhere like 1-48 hours

Quote

11-30-2016 , 10:58 AM

#4125

Smokey_The_Bear

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,739

Grabbed some HOS at the open, 4.93

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