man donald set himself on fire and hillary just incinerated him. peso and ES rallied hard, albeit on lower overnight volumes.

i was wrong, wp wp wp

i didn't even think to follow the peso. i'm not sure if i should laugh or cry about trump having so much control over mexico right now.

Nice work anyone who got in on it(not me).

ASAP; You seem like a real gem. Keep on keepin on.

Grr. I feel like a dummy for dumping my marijuana stocks after the DEA reiterated their stance on the drug. Buying a huge chunk of Aphria and CGC and holding on tight. Hoping one of them becomes the Molson of weed.

couple things to note, though:

- most of the upmove happened during the trade policy segment, where trump seemed to hold serve

- the upmove retraced 100% during the euro session, so if your plan was to buy stocks yesterday and get out at open you would have broken even.

Ya I refuse to let go of my shares right now, almost nothing can make me sell.

Pretty lackluster move. In retrospect, peso would've been the obvious debate play. Gapped over 1/2 peso during debate, 1 full lot would've netted $2500 there. Live and learn I guess.

A company like ACIA selling shares for no reason this early is a bit of a red flag, no? Like.. they don't believe in the price they're getting so they're cashing out and banking?

Or is everyone just afraid of the markets tanking.

That's what it looks like to me. Reminds me of fitbit shortly after their IPO

the topic of restaurants and fast casual had come up maybe a month ago, i thought this was interesting today. cosi files for bankruptcy. they have many locations in chicago...

link

Forwarded that link to someone earlier. The location in the Boston Seaport is a travesty.

Service is bad, equipment regularly broken, menu is cheap and when the food is fresh it can be pretty solid, but its usually at a consistent 6/10, rice will be crunchy and dried and nasty. Several employees were clearly mentally handicapped, and I have absolutely nothing wrong with that, but I think they were clearly not able to pay the normal rate for service workers, which imo is not a good sign that you have a sound financial model.

Damn was busy yesterday and missed the OPEC news. Just no idea what to do today, will feel so much like chasing.

Ya ok, this was my gut feeling this morning too. Feels like a nice trap. I think if you missed it yesterday, you missed it for now. http://business.financialpost.com/ne..._lsa=45f4-130c

What are we trading today? I've got nothing on my radar this morning and i need a sweat.

Surprised nobody wants to chime in on the oil markets. Pretty interesting 24 hours.

Is Deutshe Bank done?

I don't think so, but it sure seems like a great short even here. Any sort of state sponsored assistance or merger is going to happen when it gets even worse for them.

What a move for QCOM! How often do we see +7% for a $100b company making a potential $30b+ acquisition? So much bull flow in chips this year, including NXPI.

Short CHK at 6.16 undersized wide stop. Been long UGAZ for a bit. Chk has some bad news plus hedging.

It was good Perfect breakout to the upside without chop making easy to hang on to.

So I have a buddy who is a doctor that I reconnected with recently. He works 7 days on 7 days off and has been day trading in his off time, with pretty good success. I think he mentioned he was up like 70k or so on the year. He knows I have a background in poker, and wants to show me the ropes.

I have a few questions that I was hoping people in this thread would be able to answer.

1. How many hours a week do you have to spend studying/tracking to stay profitable, assuming you are profitable?

2. Is day trading something where you can have a profitable "system" that stays profitable for a given amount of time, but then due to certain circumstances, becomes unprofitable? i.e. you start day trading with 10k, and your system yields you a 300% profit on the year, but in 2017 if you use the same strategy, it'll yield you a -25% roi?

3. Assuming someone has a winning background in poker, and they wanted to transition into day trading, what do you think the success rate would be? Does it have a higher ceiling for profitability?

4. In order to be profitable doing this, there has to be a certain number of "fish" to use more poker translation, that are day trading, and making mistakes that you can take advantage of, correct?

I have a lot more questions, but that's a decent start to them. I apologize if this is the wrong place to ask them

5-20; depends on how many opportunities you want to catch. To get up to that speed, probably a lot more; there's no substitute for developing a high level feel for how the markets work and not missing anything for a period of time.

Depends on your "system", but yes. All is situational in trading; there are no hard and fast rules like poker, no system that will work reliably across all or even most situations. Something can work for a year or two and then lose all your capital if you keep applying in different situations and you don't recognize that something major has changed.

5%? Not much higher. Beating the markets is way harder than playing a more optimal strategy than 5 other people, one of whom is drunk, another who likes to play 50% of their hands...

In terms of potential profitability, I'll let others elaborate.
It's not that simple in the market. Partly because the market has large money inflows (trillions in business revenue), so others can still make money, just not optimally; partly because mistakes aren't necessarily made in the moment, but can be made months earlier, and partly because many opposing trades you can profit off, but aren't really "fishy" - for example a big company hedging, or many funds buying a new hot stock. And partly because people are slow to respond to new information - some of that is fishy but it's really just reality - most market participants aren't watching the market most of the time.

But yes, ultimately, the biggest money is in places where people can potentially make big mistakes.

This can vary on based what you do. When I'm actively trying to strengthen my game, maybe 55+ hours. But I would say a lot of the work is not necessarily pouring over data or actively studying the market, but more so just thinking about things when you're away from the screens. On the other hand I know guys who are very profitable who put literally no work into trading other than showing up for 2-3 hours a day to trade, but they are content to quit if their strategies die out.

Depends what you are doing. There are strategies that will work in certain market, and there are inefficiency trades that will literally die. I got my start trading a system that at the time I thought couldn't lose, which helped me build up my bankroll. Now I'll be surprised if I see it work again

It's all about strategy. If you can find things that work, trading isn't all that hard. Getting people to teach you strategies is a huge advantage. I'm not sure there's a huge poker/trading correlation though. I know a great trader that barely understands poker strategy and great trader that made $100k+ online before he started trading.

You aren't usually making money off of other traders but rather big institutions or corporate actions. Strategies will get crowded though

OPEC has lost a lot of weight in their words, I think WSJ had a nice piece on this about a week ago. they have come to agreements and disagreements back and forth for months now. Market is sorta sick of them as an authoritative source for oil production freezes.

I question if OPEC even exists anymore on a functional level.

OPEC can say they have reached an agreement but none of the member nations can actually afford to cut production, and if the price rises at all there is lots of other production waiting to come back online. Shale drillers have already figured out how be profitable at current prices. Oil has huge supply going forward, a long-term price increase just would not be sustainable.