Potential inverse H&S with minor support ~38, while currently sitting just above 200 day sma.

FWIW, I have some proprietary technical analysis developed for oil that I make money off of, and it really likes sideways right now with the majority of the action in the 42.00 to 39.20 range for a while. If you put a gun to my head and asked which way the first exit from that range would be, I'd say up, as high as 42.70ish.

Time frame <2 weeks. After that, my crystal ball no workie.

That's with current CL September offset to spot folded in. Adjust accordingly for your instrument.

Please describe?

Sideways makes perfect sense for me too for certain time frames, the FOMO aspect of it all certainly would provoke some sideways periods with all the people afraid of missing the bottom.

Not sure what the incentive is for him to do so? I guess he could make more money if people want to buy the tech off him? But otherwise everyone in this thread has shown that they'll keep their info to themselves.

There is lots of incentive. 1) Give back to others. More than likely if he's profitable, doubt it, he has had someone help him along the way. Now he returns the favor by leading others down a solid path. 2) He opens himself up for constructive criticism and possible improvement.

I only ask because everytime I see someone post about a secret indicator its usually bull**** or just a new look on an old indicator. I post here myself for both of the above reasons. Do I post lots of content here? No, but thats because this thread is mostly flaming and low content.

Also took half of my gdx off that I added recently.

Right. See that's sort of my point. You don't really want him to give back to others or whatever. It's more to prove he's a fraud. My question is does it really matter if he is? Most people in here really only respect the opinion of 3-4 guys.

Btw I completely agree that in a perfect world sharing is optimal. If I had some sort of system I'd share some of it. Probably not all, but some for sure. I'm happy to share the mistakes I've made, but that's been done a ton on here. Not sure it's worth rehashing.

I'll answer with some specifics.

The approach is to track populations of hypothetical traders trading simple methods, and see who makes money where. An observation is that certain trading approaches tend to be anti-correlated to their own prior performance - when they do well in time period X, you can expect them to do poorly some period of time Y later. Most of the methods tracked are some flavor of trend following.

The current observation is that on 30-tick bars, the trend followers have just made a fortune for a prolonged period of time. When this happens, the TA not only suggests reversion behavior, but suggests a point in time price will revert back to. The most recent price it liked (a lot) was 41.10. It also liked 42.70, but we kind of blew by that, but in a way that leaves the door open to go back. Hence the prediction of a range centered around 41.10 with either a quick detour to 42.70 and a return, or a longer period in the range and the eventual long term exit from the range being upward (and thus hitting 42.70 on the way out the door).

And this is why it's probably -EV to share anything here. We'll see if my results exceed expectation.

Incidentally, I see I made a math error above. The bottom of the range, or really the point I'd be looking to enter longs, should be 40.20, not 39.20.

Sounds interesting but 30 tick bars in CL? Those are ridiculously fast and trying to look at trends off of them would be chop fest (depending on parameters). I do a lot with tick charts and 30's in CL seems insane to me unless it is some sort of automated scalping system.

I'll also say that the only argument that I'm a fraud which I will dignify with a response is 5-figure plus offers to sell me my own action. That will get my attention.

Sorry - terminology problem, my fault. The structure for analysis is a range chart with each bar being 30 ticks (or $0.30/barrel in CL). That's a pretty slow chart - today's range was < 4 bars. It's not 30 tape ticks - that would be insane.

The 30 number is arbitrary. I usually trade on faster time frames and look at 5 and 10 range bars. But it works fine on longer frames too, I just don't like having positions when I'm not at my desk.

Okay, that makes sense. Range bars (depending on length) normally paint much slower than ticks. I like both range and tick bars as opposed to normal time bars as I feel they give a more telling picture of what exactly is happening. In volatile markets like energies a lot can happen in a very short period and time bars make it harder to see and capture.

just want to point out that nothing makes sense anymore and i regret not buying more last august, and now i want to spite buy the all time high coming off a 1% gdp and i hate everything and i want ice cream

thanks for listening

Any interesting volatile stocks with earnings coming out soon? looking to make an options play

Yes.

this is all well and good but i swear i've been getting this sentiment for the better part of the last 3 years (note: stop reading zerohedge) and janetbot9000 always manages to run people over.

we were both pretty strong on that january downturn but ever since then, even post-brexit, its like central banks are just gonna shove this thing higher and higher until its the new normal. bad news will be good news cuz it means more easing. who cares if we get a recession cuz that just means moar QE. etc and so on.

Alright so I've followed this convo to this point.

How is it possible that at this level of analysis you have an edge?

It is my assumption that this is the type of thing that interns would figure out by month 3 at most.

Is it that by literally sitting on your leather ass you can be in exactly when the opportunity hits and there are pretty obvious wins to book? People go on vacation and miss an opportunity that you hit?

what do you think?

$LNKD over 10K Aug. $200 calls now on teh day, being bid up to $0.50, GOOG was mentioned as one of the other Co's interested in it

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is buying LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) for $196 per share. The $3.12 arb spread offers a 5% IRR if it closes in November. Blah. However, it is a safe deal - it does not present risky regulatory issues, the strategic rationale is compelling enough, the definitive merger agreement is sound, and the buyer is good for the money. So who cares about LinkedIn then? Why would anyone still want to own it? Me and me. It offers a free option. If Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) stock is strong this quarter, they could come in over the top with a deal around $225 per share.

I am not exactly sure what you are asking? But in my case I trade very short term trends, momentum and breakouts. These are easier for me to identify with bars that paint from actual market action (tick and range) rather then time although I still use time bars as well. I like tick and/or range bars especially for exits since they will reflect reversals much more efficiently than time bars will since they reflect actual market action rather than time.

But the way I trade is simply a numbers game. About 35% of my trades win, about 50% of my days win and about 65% of my weeks win and my winners pay 2.5+ to 1. So I am just rolling the dice on market action based on past market action. I know I am gonna lose a certain percentage of the time and there is nothing I can do about that since over time I know my methods work.

Sold all of my KORS holdings yesterday, about a 20% return, most of that in selling calls.

Clayton, do you Chicago prop guys incorporate fundamentals and/or macro views into your trading? Just wondering as I thought most of you are autospreading, scalping order flow on economic news, or trading technicals, none of which benefit from a big picture view over a short horizon.

Chris Demuth is a good follow. I have some LNKD

i was bitching more re: investing outside of trading. tons of chicago firms do tons of different things on lots of timeframes, cant really speak for anyone besides myself.

What would be the best way to short the market?
2x or 3x bear ETF?

Any suggestions? I think between the new GDP #'s and all the election hysteria that we will be getting a pullback from the all time highs sooner than later.