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2015 Trading Thread 2015 Trading Thread

01-07-2015 , 12:51 AM
Shorted some FRO at the close as it's being pumped by CNBC. It's a decent spot but from reading the news it's not a lay up. I shorted it 2.60-2.80 during the first run and had the same feeling. There's good reason for it to be up but it's probably overdone.

Looking to short BDR over the next few days. Very low borrow cost and good odds it fades over the next few days/weeks.

I decided that I'm going to shift my bias a little more towards intraday from swing for my short trades. I feel like always trying to think big picture holds me back. At the very least intraday position sizing is a lot easier as you can take bigger position since the tail risk is lower. From the swing perspective, trying to capture the hero move makes me miss out of a fair number of smaller trades which detracts from sample size/frequency, consistency, experience etc.

Biotech has been very active lately. Here are the intraday charts I've been trading
CNAT NDRM NRX BCLI CYTR
Lot's of opportunities to make good clips. Trying to nail 5+ points on NRX might look cool but I feel like it keeps you out of some consistent scalps
01-07-2015 , 01:07 AM
I would participate if something was set up.
01-07-2015 , 01:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
I'm in. If we can all scour the net. I am sure we can find something. I am sure the developers of that site can easily have done it so positions could be showed real time or worst case. Eod
Not everyone wants their trades seen in real time because their system is not massively scalable and can be reverse engineered.
01-07-2015 , 01:36 AM
This move in FRO is just the beginning its an easy double by end of the year if management doesn't do anything stupid like issue more shares after their current debt/equity swap expires. I'm expecting another $39 million in dilution but they should be able to meet their obligation easily without it given current day rates. If management comes out saying we wont dilute further we get a nice upside move but I'm not holding my breath.
01-07-2015 , 01:40 AM
Does anyone know of any prop firms that allow overnights of up to 10:1? If you can recommend someone besides Bright please shoot me a pm. thx
01-07-2015 , 01:55 AM
I set up a Wall Street Survivor game...it is free and has options/margin/lower trading fees...I set the start date for January 12th, ends Dec 31 2015.

Let me know if anyone sees anything wrong with it: http://www.wallstreetsurvivor.com/league/BFI2015

I've been trying to play around with the settings, but keep getting error messages. Right now the settings are 250 trades, $5 min to short, $3 min to buy, and one position can only be a max of 25% of your portfolio. Trying to change those to 1000, $1, $2, and 100%.

password is same as the other game. i think the name rather than username shows up in the leaderboard, so fyi if that matters to you. I just used my initials.
01-07-2015 , 02:19 AM
Good find domer . I'll check it out tomorrow.


BTM.

Yeah ok . Paul Tudor Jones.
01-07-2015 , 02:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyrnaFTW
BTM.

Yeah ok . Paul Tudor Jones.
Not mine, but it is the reason why peeps don't want it.
01-07-2015 , 10:52 AM
Kyle Bass just gave a presentation where he said he is going to try to destroy the pharma industry in the US using the court system. It doesn't appear he gave a specific company. Looks like he wants to destroy ~all of them. Starting a new short fund.

This is a tweet of the presentation: https://twitter.com/finansakrobat

This is the summary of it: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6wSyKzCcAE66Ye.jpg:large
01-07-2015 , 10:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Kyle Bass just gave a presentation where he said he is going to try to destroy the pharma industry in the US using the court system. It doesn't appear he gave a specific company. Looks like he wants to destroy ~all of them. Starting a new short fund.

This is a tweet of the presentation: https://twitter.com/finansakrobat

This is the summary of it: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6wSyKzCcAE66Ye.jpg:large
nice..

joined that league btw.. i see we are at four.. the interface kinda sucks, but if we an see our positions, makes it better
01-07-2015 , 10:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Kyle Bass just gave a presentation where he said he is going to try to destroy the pharma industry in the US using the court system. It doesn't appear he gave a specific company. Looks like he wants to destroy ~all of them. Starting a new short fund.

This is a tweet of the presentation: https://twitter.com/finansakrobat

This is the summary of it: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6wSyKzCcAE66Ye.jpg:large
you dont think big pharma will win all patent rulings?
01-07-2015 , 11:08 AM
doubled my amzn short @ 299.50 .
01-07-2015 , 11:10 AM
Not a bad play imo. Low risk, potentially high reward. Well timed. Do you have a stop?
01-07-2015 , 11:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSoother
Not a bad play imo. Low risk, potentially high reward. Well timed. Do you have a stop?
my breakeven is 303 or so i think.. i am willing to lose around 5% so 312-314

also doubled my ebay short @ 54.74ish avg
01-07-2015 , 01:46 PM
Anybody like HOS around these levels for long position?
01-07-2015 , 01:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by trade2win
This move in FRO is just the beginning its an easy double by end of the year if management doesn't do anything stupid like issue more shares after their current debt/equity swap expires. I'm expecting another $39 million in dilution but they should be able to meet their obligation easily without it given current day rates. If management comes out saying we wont dilute further we get a nice upside move but I'm not holding my breath.
eh, there will be more dilution IMO (especially at over 3 per share), but don't know if its going to be more than what you have baked in. Fredriksen is "the shipping man" so you never know...gl though I like the oil tanker thesis better than my recent "nothing is good or pointing up in this industry so I will buy (DSX)" in the Dry-bulk space (plan to hold 1-3yrs and only a very small gambol position).
01-07-2015 , 02:17 PM
Any of you guys. Look into apol , should I not short this ? Really like my risk reward right now. They report tomorrow.
01-07-2015 , 03:08 PM
In one of my leek spots here with KORS deciding to let my profits run up, or not. I find one of the interesting challenges is figuring out if my reasons for wanting to hold are valid, or if I'm just creating a narrative to convince myself of what to do. Tricky to get passed your own bias on this stuff.

Traditionally Xmas seasonality and cheap gas is fabulous for big retailers right? Because if I tack that on top of my mediocre charting skills, I'm inclined to hold a bit longer and let these profits run. This is the kind of day I wish I had just bought options yesterday over shares. Wouldn't hesitate to take my winnings here in that scenario.
01-07-2015 , 03:21 PM
Depends on the retail names. Many have huge international presences, and that revenue can be more than 50% of their total revenue. A strong dollar and weak international growth is bad in that case.

That said I'm still bullish on KORS and nearly doubled my position yesterday when it was down 10%.
01-07-2015 , 03:41 PM
Oh man I've never been mushed by Raine before

I kid, hope we both run good. Thanks for the info.
01-07-2015 , 04:48 PM
shorted apol @ 31.84 avg , bought some feb puts.

three positions

apol -15%
Ebay -15%
Amzn -15%
01-07-2015 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDempster
average trade price near close:

-Short QID @ 41.65

-Short SDS @ 23.18

-Short ERY @ 24.15

-Short NUGT @ 15.45

GL,
The Dempster

** there is reason why i wait for the close(lol at prints)
-covered entire short NUGT sub14 .... + 8.72 % today

-still short other positions at same prices(+ 2.45% today)

- missed 2 other new trades in miners

GL
01-07-2015 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDempster
-covered entire short NUGT sub14 .... + 8.72 % today

-still short other positions at same prices(+ 2.45% today)

- missed 2 other new trades in miners

GL
What % of your portfolio are you putting into these trades?
01-07-2015 , 06:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
What % of your portfolio are you putting into these trades?
25-30% ...tops

obv. depends on market vol./conditions

**the majority of my intra-day/swing trades are in the 12-15% range

Last edited by TheDempster; 01-07-2015 at 06:12 PM. Reason: disclosure
01-07-2015 , 08:28 PM
Scalped GALT today holding to my new perspective of trying not to always think big picture. I thought it could bounce and set up again but it never did, but a good trade anyways.

ARNA for tomorrow. I didn't trade it today since it opened nearly even and showed a lot of strength well after the morning. The news really isn't super bullish as it's only a phase 1 trial but the guys at ARNA did talk it up quite a bit in the PR.

      
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