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2015 Trading Thread 2015 Trading Thread

12-25-2014 , 12:12 PM
So let's get this rolling, what are people picking in 2015 and why?

I'll get it started. I'm long FB I think their changes in how they are approaching & charging for advertising;

Facebook is expanding into highly lucrative video ads, and earlier this year re-launched Atlas, a tool for marketers to better target people across "devices, platforms and publishers" and to measure how well the ads work.

The Atlas move and the acquisition of LiveRail, an online video advertising platform, signal that an "important shift is underway at Facebook," says Debra Aho Williamson, an analyst at research firm EMarketer. Facebook is "becoming much more ambitious in offering digital services far beyond what the company was initially created to do as a social network."


I'm also long CHKP an internet security company;

Analysts at Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Check Point Software Technologies from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note on Wednesday, December 17th. They now have a $90.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $70.00. Separately, analysts at Jefferies Group initiated coverage on shares of Check Point Software Technologies in a research note on Thursday, November 20th. They set a “buy” rating and a $88.00 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Bank of America reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Check Point Software Technologies in a research note on Wednesday, November 12th. They now have a $85.00 price target on the stock, up previously from $75.00.

Last edited by DuckU; 12-25-2014 at 12:18 PM.
12-25-2014 , 02:31 PM
Far too early, sir. It's still 2014 for another week.
12-26-2014 , 02:22 AM
CheckPoint is still in business? Is this the 2003 trading thread? (I work in the InfoSec industry)

I'm kidding, well not really. I don't know anyone that uses Checkpoint these days. Any modern shop with cash is using Palo Alto's these days. (Palo Alto is also trying to steal FireEye's thunder)

Also as more and more companies migrate away from their own datacenters and into AWS (or another competitors) it really diminishes their need for their products. (Doesn't get rid of the need for all of it though)

Edit: Just looked at their stock info 15 bln market cap these days? Wow. This makes me want to re-evaluate PANW now.

Last edited by SenatorKevin; 12-26-2014 at 02:36 AM.
12-26-2014 , 08:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenatorKevin
CheckPoint is still in business? Is this the 2003 trading thread? (I work in the InfoSec industry)

I'm kidding, well not really. I don't know anyone that uses Checkpoint these days. Any modern shop with cash is using Palo Alto's these days. (Palo Alto is also trying to steal FireEye's thunder)

Also as more and more companies migrate away from their own datacenters and into AWS (or another competitors) it really diminishes their need for their products. (Doesn't get rid of the need for all of it though)

Edit: Just looked at their stock info 15 bln market cap these days? Wow. This makes me want to re-evaluate PANW now.
I agree that PANW is utilized by more businesses but PANW & Fireye have negative earnings (lose money) per share (-EPS). I like CHKP in part because of positive cash flow and P/E.

Senator Kevin do you think PAWN is overvalued at it's current price or still has room to run in 2015?
12-26-2014 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckU
I agree that PANW is utilized by more businesses but PANW & Fireye have negative earnings (lose money) per share (-EPS). I like CHKP in part because of positive cash flow and P/E.

Senator Kevin do you think PAWN is overvalued at it's current price or still has room to run in 2015?
They might. I really haven't looked at PANW numbers of late. I was looking at them at 80, then I guess they reported earnings at a weird time and it ran up to 100 almost overnight and I got busy with other things.

They have some pretty lofty expectations, so people are just assuming they're going to beat and raise over the next few quarters. In other words, I feel like if their next numbers come "in-line" they'll get crushed.

That being said, they are expanding their product line to compete with FireEye and WebSense. So they'll be able to up sell to companies using their products in a corporate environment. Their solution that competes with FireEye is noticeably cheaper but still needs to mature though.

Other huge wildcard is how much cash do companies have available for "budget burn". You'd be amazed at how companies will just buy stuff at the end of the year because they budget items they didn't use throughout the year / quarter.

Edit: I think with all the talk of "cyber security" with this Sony deal, I think Qualys might actually fair best. Qualys is more on the vulnerability management side, so they sell software and services to identify issues on a given network / asset. Looks like they are hitting a 52 week high today. Small market cap though.

Last edited by SenatorKevin; 12-26-2014 at 04:52 PM.
12-26-2014 , 08:18 PM
Not sure why this thread was made so early. That said I'll take PANW any day over FEYE.
12-26-2014 , 08:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckU
So let's get this rolling, what are people picking in 2015 and why?
Any company that's in an industry that competes heavily with Russia or Venezuela.
12-27-2014 , 12:48 PM
Not 2015 yet or even the real Greg Hobson starting the thread, what a shame.
12-27-2014 , 09:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ASAP17
Not 2015 yet or even the real Greg Hobson starting the thread, what a shame.
Not sure why the hate for starting this thread a week before 2015. I was closing out some 2014 positions and planning to trade on Friday Jan. 2, 2015 so I figured I'd hear what some 2+2 folks had to say. I'm interested in peoples thoughts and trading ideas for 2015.

And ASAP17, you are correct sir I'm not Greg Hobson. I'm really happy for Greg and his online success. Like Greg I went to University of Oregon and DuckU is a somewhat common expression/name.

Also, my worst investment in 2015? Investing in ASAP17 in the 2014 WSOP ME. Lesson learned!

Wishing all a happy and healthy 2015! (a few days early I hope that is not a faux pas)
12-27-2014 , 10:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckU
Not sure why the hate for starting this thread a week before 2015. I was closing out some 2014 positions and planning to trade on Friday Jan. 2, 2015 so I figured I'd hear what some 2+2 folks had to say. I'm interested in peoples thoughts and trading ideas for 2015.

And ASAP17, you are correct sir I'm not Greg Hobson. I'm really happy for Greg and his online success. Like Greg I went to University of Oregon and DuckU is a somewhat common expression/name.

Also, my worst investment in 2015? Investing in ASAP17 in the 2014 WSOP ME. Lesson learned!

Wishing all a happy and healthy 2015! (a few days early I hope that is not a faux pas)
It was my worst investment of 2014 as well, at least we have that in common.

The real DuckU is much cooler, sigh. This thread is already off to a lame start. Buy the real DuckU, short this DuckU.
12-28-2014 , 01:03 AM
Bring back the monthly trading thread IMO. The monthly format chronicles the trading topics and sent image of the time so much better than a year long trading thread, which IMO was a jumbled mess.

Plus we can lock this 2015 thread...which is off to controversial start. (Kudos to OP though for at least starting the thread with a conversation starter..albeit a week too early).
12-28-2014 , 01:08 AM
Why would you be long on facebook? Aren't they making their product much worse and more annoying when their audience is people with generally short attention spans? and i mean, doesn't facebook get really old after a while?
12-28-2014 , 03:14 AM
Now is time to hold the dow winners for a couple days and start to buy the small cap stocks that had a bad 2014 scan the worst CEO of the year lists. Maybe Russia maybe TWTR. Monthly thread was probably better, however there really is no difference. You have month smoothly going into the next month. Thus you can scan a pages before. Sort of like the bitcoin thread, read the 1st couple pages it is kind of funny. Why would anyone pay $.70 for a bitcoin in a currency no one uses? But monthly you can get a clean start. DUCKU is probably one of the top 20 poker players on this site, so it is an honor to have the thread started by him.

Last edited by steelhouse; 12-28-2014 at 03:35 AM.
12-28-2014 , 10:06 AM
But that's not the real DuckU, whom I have played countless hours online against in hsmtts. This is some copier who registered years after the original had success and expects us to believe it is a coincidence.
12-28-2014 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kutty2
Why would you be long on facebook? Aren't they making their product much worse and more annoying when their audience is people with generally short attention spans? and i mean, doesn't facebook get really old after a while?
If by annoying, you mean monetizing their user-base then yes.
12-29-2014 , 09:35 AM
Does anyone have any ideas for some high risk reward stocks for 2015?
12-29-2014 , 12:34 PM
Bold prediction for 2015, someone (likely Yahoo) acquires AOL. Looking at the chart, pullbacks have been bought aggressively since those rumors were first reported. Believe it's still in play, we will see.
12-30-2014 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kutty2
Why would you be long on facebook? Aren't they making their product much worse and more annoying when their audience is people with generally short attention spans? and i mean, doesn't facebook get really old after a while?
it's 2014, not 2007. "their audience" is everyone with an internet connection or cell phone. and 'facebook' is not just facebook.com. it's that + all of their mobile apps, instagram, whatsapp etc etc. and there is no evidence in their numbers that all of that 'gets really old after awhile'.
12-30-2014 , 02:43 PM
Quote:
Bold prediction for 2015, someone (likely Yahoo) acquires AOL. Looking at the chart, pullbacks have been bought aggressively since those rumors were first reported. Believe it's still in play, we will see.
Some type of merger seems very possible. I don't think Yahoo just straight-up acquires AOL, because one of the fundamental issues is how to avoid paying capital gain taxes on the Alibaba stake. An acquisition doesn't help this, but a merger might. Check the link below out - good analysis of the situation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/ma...jobs.html?_r=0
01-01-2015 , 07:56 PM
New year starts with me sitting with my only positions being EFV and VBR.
01-01-2015 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2
EFV
Is that some kind of short term trade or do you just like dog**** returns?
01-01-2015 , 08:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mubsy Bogues
Is that some kind of short term trade or do you just like dog**** returns?
Short-term. Either EFV bounces in the next couple of days, or I get out.

(I don't do long-term)
01-01-2015 , 10:02 PM
Futures up nicely off the open, crude up 2% to $55. Good luck all this year!
01-01-2015 , 11:08 PM
if I remember right, some of you guys liked TWTR last time that it dipped down around the low 30s. Same thoughts this time around?
01-02-2015 , 02:34 PM
Started off 2015 with my first long term hold ever. I bought ARP at 10.50, actually a few weeks ago. I've read quite a bit about them and I feel like it's a good play on the oil sell off.

2014 was basically my first full year trading so I got the idea of keeping a 2014 vs 2015 side by side pnl chart. I think it will be pretty interesting and good motivator. Shouldn't be that hard to compete with because I think I was down for the first two months last year...

      
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